"Thanks to Erdogan, millions of lives will be saved!" Donald Trump tweeted at the cease-fire.

"Mr. President, many more lives will be saved as we defeat terrorism," Erdogan tweeted in response to Trump.

So Trump is trying to sell the cease-fire as a grand humanitarian effort thanks to his good relationship with Erdogan.

But the terms of the agreement sound rather like a US capitulation to Turkey's demands. The Kurdish-led forces SDF, which the US has abandoned, have 120 hours to withdraw from the area claimed by Turkey, US Vice President Mike Pence announced to the World Press in Ankara on Thursday.

At the same time, Trump backs away from the threats of sanctions against Turkey. Erdogan gets his will through completely without concessions.

Bedded for adversity

It remains to be seen whether this will be the case in practice. The agreement is set for adversity as neither Assad nor Russia, which now has greater influence than the United States on the ground, are covered by the agreement.

The leaders of the Kurdish forces say that they will respect the ceasefire, but only in the areas where fighting is ongoing.

Ankara, in turn, is stubborn that they do not content themselves with anything other than the Kurdish forces fully withdrawing 30 kilometers from the Turkish border, otherwise the offensive will resume.

It is hoped that the fragile agreement may at least provide some relief to the civilian suffering in northern Syria, that international relief efforts can reach and that hundreds of thousands can flee to safer areas.

But so far, it doesn't look very hopeful that the cease-fire will last. New battles raged in Ras al-Ayn as early as Friday morning.

Many expect northern Syria's fate to be decided instead when Erdogan travels to Sochi to meet Putin next Tuesday, which coincides with the ceasefire deadline.

Erdogan shines at home

It remains to be seen whether Erdogan will receive the same hearing for his demands from Putin, close ally of Syrian President Assad who does not want to give up any territory to Turkey.

Militarily, the Turkish offensive, which initially advanced with a tremendous force, has recovered somewhat. The Kurdish forces have succeeded in slowing the advances through surprise attacks from underground tunnels.

The Turkish military and their allied militia currently control only 15 percent of the land strip they want. This gives Erdogan a relatively weak negotiating position vis-à-vis Putin.

At the same time, Turkey is becoming increasingly isolated internationally. But at home, Erdogan can still shine on having got Trump on his knees - for the second time in two weeks.

Some wise person suggested updating the old saying "The Turks have no friends except the Turks" to "The Turks have no friends except Trump".