Void, influence and localization .. Team evaporates his dreams and four parties gain from the Turkish operation in Syria

US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from Syria has radically changed the balance of power in the northeast, creating a vacuum that Russia, Turkey and Iran are racing to fill.

While Turkish troops continue to advance southward into Syrian territory, the Kurds have called on the Russian-backed Syrian regime to push its forces forward from the south and west.

More than 10,000 ISIS fighters, some of them foreign nationals whom Western governments refuse to return, are in jails in the region, and tens of thousands of family members live in camps in the region.

The following is a presentation on the changes in the balance of power in Syria after the US withdrawal and the start of the Turkish operation.

Turkish goal
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he wants to resettle up to two million Syrian refugees, many of them Sunni Arabs, in areas targeted in the military operation, which is currently controlled by Kurdish-led forces.

In the first week, Turkish forces and the Syrian-backed opposition focused on the
ANKARA - The YPG fighters have been driven out of two major border towns, Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, which are about 120 kilometers apart.

Despite a wave of international criticism, Erdogan said nothing would stop operations against Kurdish fighters, whom Ankara considers "terrorists" because of their links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency in southeast Turkey for decades.

Erdogan said Turkey would control a border strip stretching hundreds of kilometers from Kobani in the west to Hasakah in the east, and 30 to 35 kilometers deep in Syrian territory.

A Turkish official said the operation was "very fast and successful." He said the first phase would be completed by November 13, when Erdogan and Trump are due to meet in Washington.

Gains to Assad
The complete withdrawal of US troops is a key turning point in the Syrian conflict. It has restored the Assad government to a foothold in the largest sector of the country that was not under its control.

The region has oil, agricultural and water resources, as well as the dam used to generate electricity, all of which are vital to improve the government's ability to cope with the repercussions of Western sanctions.

Official media in Syria said Assad's forces had reached the M4 highway, which runs from east to west, about 30 kilometers from the border with Turkey, that is, on the border of the "safe zone" that Ankara plans to establish.

On Tuesday, Syrian forces entered the city of Manbij, in an area where Turkey and the United States were organizing joint patrols.

But Assad's army has been exhausted by the exhaustion caused by the long conflict, and is now heavily dependent on Russia, Iran and Shiite factions, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.

The collapse of the Kurdish dream
Kurdish groups in Syria took advantage of the withdrawal of government forces from the northeast at the beginning of the Syrian conflict to establish autonomous institutions and teach Kurdish in local schools.

When the Kurds were exposed to the Turkish offensive as a result of the US withdrawal, they called on the Syrian army to return, a decision that highlighted their vulnerability and marked the end of many of their dreams.

The Kurds will seek to maintain as much autonomy as possible in political talks with Syria, their long-stated goal, but no longer a strong ally.

However, Damascus and the predominantly Kurdish SDF share the goal of driving Turkey out of northern Syria, or at least stopping its advance.

"Damascus needs the Kurds," said Joshua Landis, head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

"But they don't agree on anything when it comes to governing northeast Syria."

The fate of ISIS
The SDF was the main force on the ground in the US-backed offensive that recaptured Syrian territory from ISIS, including the city of Raqqa, the de facto capital of the “caliphate” declared by the group.

Before its withdrawal, Washington was preparing to train and equip a Syrian Democratic Forces force to stabilize the region, to prevent the return of extremists who carried out massacres of Kurds in the cities they controlled.

The SDF says the Turkish offensive helped activate sleeper cells of the Islamic State one year after the group's defeat.

The group claimed responsibility for the attacks, including a car bomb outside a restaurant in the largest Kurdish city of Qamishli, a day after the Turkish incursion began.

Since the fighting began last week, SDF has said unrest has occurred in prisons where fighters are held and in camps where the wives and children of the fighters are held.

Iranian gain
Iran is also expected to make gains on the ground, and there are likely to be Iraqi paramilitary factions backed by Iran that will help Assad extend control of the region; “supporting supply lines, on a route from Tehran to Beirut.”

The Russian role
Russia's indispensable role in Syria reflects a greater shift in the Middle East from Damascus to Riyadh, as evidenced by President Vladimir Putin's trip to the Gulf this week, where he paid his first visit to Saudi Arabia in more than a decade.

The intervention of the Russian Air Force in 2015 contributed to diverting the Syrian conflict in favor of Assad.

Trump's decision to withdraw troops from northeast Syria reinforced Moscow's pivotal role in shaping the country's future.

"Turkish-Russian talks are under way to determine the rhythm in northern Syria, especially east of the Euphrates. They are driving all these plans," a regional source in Damascus said.

A Turkish official said Ankara was "working very closely with Russia," and Erdogan recently pointed to Russia's importance when he said President Putin had shown a "positive approach" to the situation.

The two countries may be able to forge an agreement dividing the northern border into new areas of control, preventing a war between their local allies: the Syrian government on one side and the anti-Assad opposition on the other.

"I think there will be real friction, but I think the Russians will be able to control it, a deal will be concluded," said Landis of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.