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After signing a revised agreement on Brexit with Brussels, Boris Johnson has to overcome another obstacle: to pass his agreement Saturday, October 19 at the extraordinary session in Parliament after having convinced enough British MPs, what is very uncertain announcement.
No one in Westminster expects a landslide victory or overwhelming defeat of Boris Johnson in Parliament on Saturday, Oct. 19, but rather an extremely tight vote due to current arithmetic in the House of Commons.
The Prime Minister lost an absolute majority after excluding about 20 conservative politicians who had defied the government to prevent an exit without agreement. The magic number is 320 and for the moment Boris Johnson is far from it since the Labor Party, the liberal-democrats, the Scottish separatists and now the DUP North-ireland have already rejected the new agreement.
Blackmail
To reverse this trend, the government will need the votes of all the Conservatives, including those whom it has expelled, as well as some 20 Labor elected in pro-Brexit ridings.
Boris Johnson will try to convince by Saturday this block in the moving position with an argument that looks like blackmail. To circumvent the law that requires him to request an extension in case of "no-deal", the conservative leader has indeed urged Brussels to exclude any further postponement of Brexit, forcing members to vote for his agreement not to risk a brutal exit on October 31st.
► See also: New Brexit agreement: barely found, already criticized in the UK
Reactions in Northern Ireland
With the new agreement, the "backstop" is abandoned but Northern Ireland should be aligned with the European customs regime. In Belfast, the Northern Irish are relieved that the leaders have managed to agree on the "Irish question". Many do not even consider returning a border, whether for security or economic reasons.
However, the North Irish, who voted 55% to stay in the European Union, are far from overflowing enthusiasm. Some "Remainers" are almost a little disappointed that an agreement has been found. Until then there was hope for a second referendum or even a cancellation of Brexit.
The North Irish people prefer to be cautious because they remember that a year ago, an agreement was found which guaranteed the absence of borders on the island. The British Parliament rejected it three times in a row. We will therefore speak of agreement only when the text has passed the test of the House of Commons.