Mohamed Minshawi-Washington

It took seven days for President Donald Trump to overturn and change his pro-Turkish stance in northeastern Syria to issue an executive order to impose sanctions on Ankara to pressure it to halt its military operations.

Trump followed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who previously said in a television interview with PBS that Turkey had legitimate security concerns "and there is a terrorist threat from the south" and then returned to demand Ankara stop all unilateral military operations. Immediately. "

Harvard professor Steve Walt summarized Trump's behavior in a tweet: "What happened naturally from a president like Trump. First, it gives a green light to the Turkish invasion. The Nobel Peace Prize for his role in pacification. "

sanctions
The sanctions, which Washington has pledged to impose include the Turkish defense and energy ministries as well as the ministers of energy, defense and interior, Trump has also decided to suspend trade negotiations with Ankara on huge trade agreements, and has pledged to impose 50 percent tariffs on Turkish iron imports.

Aaron Lund, Middle East expert "Century Foundation" - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - expressed his belief that "the imposition of sanctions will not stop Turkey, although the sanctions and toughness by the United States and European countries such a big surprise for the Turkish leadership."

He said that the sanctions resolution will be strongly present in the calculations of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before taking the next step.

Malik Mufti, professor of international relations at Tufts University in Massachusetts, agreed with Lund, but assured Al Jazeera Net that "the proposed US sanctions will have the opposite effect, and there will be a greater role for Russia and will strengthen its relations with Turkey."

Lund was deeply surprised by the size of the proposed sanctions targeting NATO's second-largest country. By Congress. "

The Kurds are not right
The detention of US pastor Andrew Branson in Turkey for more than two years before his release last year left a major rift in Ankara's relationship with Congress, which was evident in the absence of any support from its members for the "spring of peace."

A former official of the island Net that it was difficult to tolerate a military operation targeting the Kurds, even if it was by another ally and a member of NATO, "because the Kurds fought next to us for several years against the Islamic State."

The official, who has worked diplomatically in a number of Arab countries, refused to compare the US position towards Turkey with the war in Yemen. "Yemenis are not our allies," he said.

He said there was a lot of anger over the "spring of peace" process in Congress over Turkey's acquisition of Russia's S-400 missile defense system, which posed a major challenge to Congress and the strategic relationship between the two countries.

Strategic Accounts
As the situation in northern Syria becomes more complex and the US media's focus on the plight of Kurdish civilians, it has become difficult to find any US supporters of the Turkish position. Newsweek magazine reports that US military commanders themselves prefer that the city of Manbij be controlled by the Russians and Assad To fall under the control of Turkey.

David Mac, a former ambassador and an expert at the Middle East Institute, disagrees with this proposal, and assured Al Jazeera Net that Turkey still has extensive contacts with the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies.

Some US circles are concerned about the vacuum created by the US withdrawal from northeast Syria. Lund believes that the most important thing is what is happening on the ground in northeastern Syria. "Russia is rushing to compensate for the American vacuum. It will have the most important word there. And the Kurds. "

Many American strategists also view with concern the new situation. "No other country played the pivotal role played by Turkey during the Cold War, and ultimately led to the US and West's victory over the Soviet Union," the former US official said.

There is no alternative to an alliance with Turkey
US circles recognize Turkey's importance to Washington's strategy both within NATO and to secure US interests in southern Europe and the Middle East.

Washington has long feared any rapprochement between Ankara and its rivals Moscow or Tehran. A recent study by the Congressional Research Service pointed to the importance of the US military presence inside Turkey as a key member of NATO.

The study focused on the Incirlik base in southern Turkey, which traditionally has 2,500 US troops for military missions in Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria.

In the current state of chaos, Lund said, "Russia may not be able to achieve the big goals it wants, but we must remember that the Russian-Turkish ties and relations are getting stronger on the back of the American position."

In the short term, "relations have already been affected and have reached a low level and an unprecedented state of tension between the two countries in such a way that it will not be easy to repair what they lose," he said.

In the long run, Lund says, the end of direct US support for Kurdish forces means that the most tense factors between Washington and Ankara will fade.

On the other hand, many Turkish experts in the US capital believe that Washington can not sacrifice the relationship of strategic alliance with Turkey in the face of rising influence of Russia or Iran in the eastern Mediterranean, but they also do not know the way to get out of this escalating crisis quickly.