Lagos (AFP)

It's been almost two months since Nigeria, the economic giant of 190 million inhabitants closed its borders, prohibiting any export or import of goods with its neighbors, and particularly with Benin, officially to stem the smuggling trade and boost its national economy. .

This ultra-protectionist economic measure is undoubtedly a "catastrophe" for neighboring Benin, but even in Nigeria it remains unclear and could have serious consequences for the poorest Nigerians.

- Why this closure?

Nigerian Customs chief Hameed Ali gave no sign of reopening on Monday to ensure that this measure "will take time for our neighbors to come to the table" of the talks.

If he does not name it directly, Benin, a small country of 12 million is the first concerned. Its economic capital Cotonou offers a functional port of entry for the products sold on the gigantic markets of the megalopolis of Lagos, 20 million inhabitants alone.

Benin taxes these products, but they then cross the border informally.

The other big problem for Nigeria - the largest oil producer on the continent - is that gasoline costs half as much as its neighbors (145 nairas, 0.34 euro per liter), thanks to a system of state subsidies. which plunders the national budget but buys social peace.

A smuggling of smuggled gasoline into Benin has been in place since the early 2000s. "Nigeria has, to its detriment, subsidized the gasoline of several West African countries for more than 12 years ", notes a report from the Nigerian Economic Cabinet Cardinal Stone.

- Which sectors benefit?

Ade Adefeko, a representative for the international food giant Olam, is adamant that no one will invest in local agriculture as long as 2 million tons of rice will illegally cross the border.

Olam has the largest rice field in Nigeria (13,500 hectares, of which only 4,500 ha are cultivated), but "it is not profitable" compared to subsidized rice from Southeast Asia.

"Since the borders closed, locally produced rice is selling better, production is increasing," Adefeko told AFP, urging that the measure be applied "until the end of the year to see the consequences on the longer term ".

But beyond the big food lobbies, the big winner of this measure is undoubtedly the Nigerian state.

"Local" consumption of gasoline dropped from 56.3 million liters before the closure to 49.1 million liters in the third quarter, a reduction of 7.2 million liters that would have passed illegally in Benin.

"This decline, if maintained, could save 13 billion naira (32.5 million euros) in subsidies to the state every month," say Cardinal Stone's economists.

The official figures are not verifiable, but the Comptroller General of Customs also welcomed having reached "historic" records of customs revenue, about 5 billion naira each day for two months, including via the port of Lagos ( 12 million euros).

- What consequence for the poorest?

The huge market of Lagos Island, a temple of second-hand clothing and Made in China, is located not far from Nigeria's largest port, yet resellers also brought their goods from Benin.

"The port of Lagos is too slow and too corrupt," says a swimsuit salesman, who set up his small shop under a motorway junction. "We have to divide our margins by two if we do not want to raise prices."

Prices rose sharply, especially for food products, such as rice, which rose from 9,000 nairas (22 euros) to more than 20,000 nairas (55 euros) for 50 kg in two months.

In the industrial sector, which is already suffering from lack of infrastructure and electricity to be competitive, this measure is "incomprehensible".

"If the intention to stop the smuggling is commendable, it is not supposed to impact us", is indignant a foreign investor specialized in the import / export of manufactured goods. "As usual in Nigeria, we establish a balance of power, we crush, and after we discuss".

From 10% to 20% of products made in Nigeria, especially in the food industry with giants Nestlé, Unilever or Indomie (Chinese pasta), or cosmetics, are exported to West Africa, mostly informally , by small sellers who crisscross the region.

Nigeria is struggling to recover from the severe 2016 recession. The numbers of unemployment and extreme poverty are steadily increasing (83 million people survive on less than $ 2 a day).

"We need direct investments, industries to create jobs," insists the director of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce, Muda Yusuf.

"The closing of the borders is only beneficial for some people, and while they are going to deposit their money in the bank, the rest of the people are suffering."

© 2019 AFP