In October, the rating of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky slipped by 7% compared with September. Now the policy of the head of state is supported by 66% of citizens. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from October 9 to 11.
In addition to Zelensky, the rating of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Alexey Goncharuk significantly decreased (from 17% to 10%), as well as the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Dmitry Razumkov (from 33% to 27%).
At the same time, the popularity of opposition forces has increased in Ukrainian society. In particular, support for Yuriy Boyko, co-chair of the Opposition Platform - For Life party, increased from 20% to 24%, and Yulia Tymoshenko, the head of the Fatherland Party, from 19% to 23%.
Neither war nor peace
Andrei Suzdaltsev, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the HSE, links Zelensky’s rating drop, first of all, with the stalled process of conflict resolution in the Donbass. The expert recalled that Kiev was constantly changing its position according to the Steinmeier formula, but agreeing to it, could not even fulfill the first condition.
The plan of the former Foreign Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany involves the separation of forces, the adoption of a law on the special status of uncontrolled territories, holding local elections there and transferring to the Ukrainian authorities a section of the border with the Russian Federation, which has been in the hands of the militia for more than five years.
To date, the forces of the warring parties are divorced only in the village of Lugansk. Last week, Ukraine, as stated in the LPR, thwarted the withdrawal of units in Zolotoy and Petrovsky. In particular, the Azov regiment, which formally is part of the National Guard, refused to comply with the orders of the central leadership. The Foreign Ministry of Ukraine claims that the breeding did not take place due to violation of the silence regime.
With the beginning of the month, protests of radicals regularly take place in the center of Kiev under the slogan "No surrender." Also, ex-president Petro Poroshenko and his party “European Solidarity” take part in opposition speeches.
The lack of progress on the withdrawal of forces in the Donbass does not allow Zelensky to count on holding a meeting in the Norman format. In addition, he continues to criticize Steinmeier’s formula. On October 10, at a press marathon, the President of Ukraine announced that he has his own vision for resolving the conflict in the south-east of the country.
“The only difficult question there is that it says that we first hold elections, and then the border is controlled by Ukraine. This is a very controversial issue, and to be honest, I see in a different way how to solve it. Therefore, we will continue our policy, that this must be decided in a completely different way, ”Zelensky said.
- Zelensky surrounded by military on the contact line in the Donbass
- © president.gov.ua
Andrei Suzdaltsev believes that Zelensky is really determined to end the war in the Donbass, but he does not have an idea of how and under what conditions it is necessary to move to peace. This, as the expert stressed, is evidenced by the constant fluctuations of the official line of Kiev on the issue of Steinmeier’s formula.
“On the one hand, Zelensky is afraid of the label of a capitulator and does not want to be a bargaining chip in the games of the great powers, on the other hand, he demonstrates readiness for dialogue with Russia. At the moment, the President of Ukraine is unable to correctly balance. As a result, in the eyes of at least part of society, he looks like an indecisive politician, ”said Suzdaltsev.
IMF and the land issue
In an interview with RT, the director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology, Mikhail Pogrebinsky, called the absence of positive changes in the socio-economic sphere a key reason for downgrading Zelensky and Goncharuk.
Ukraine continues the policy of borrowing funds in international organizations. In the draft budget for 2020, which was approved in September by the Ukrainian government, almost half of the funds will go to pay debts. Now Kiev is agreeing with the IMF to adopt a new three-year tranche program.
In late September, Alexey Goncharuk in his YouTube blog “Cup of Prem'ra” called cooperation with the IMF the basis for the economic development of Ukraine. Foreign loans, according to the head of government, should attract large-scale foreign investment into the country.
“This will give us the opportunity to develop infrastructure projects, work to improve energy efficiency and do everything that is necessary for Ukraine to become successful,” Goncharuk explained.
Pogrebinsky believes that the Zelensky administration has charged the Prime Minister with the responsibility for carrying out the complex of unpopular reforms that the creditors demand. One of them is the establishment of a land market. The Verkhovna Rada may approve the law on free circulation of farmland by December 1.
However, Ukrainian society is negative about the idea of buying and selling land. According to the sociological rating group, 73% of Ukrainians speak out against lifting a moratorium on free circulation of farmland.
An October KIIS study says that the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens (70%) insist on holding a referendum on this issue.
- Zelensky welcomes voters before the inauguration
- © president.gov.ua
Zelensky promises that the land will not fall into the hands of foreign persons. However, opponents of the lifting of the moratorium hold a different point of view. The source of concern is Goncharuk. The Prime Minister believes that "we need to allow land transactions for all who have the opportunity to process it now, including for foreign citizens."
“Now Goncharuk acts as a separate figure from Zelensky, the initiator and conductor of unpopular proposals. True, this role, in my opinion, he does not play very well. People see that Zelensky failed to solve a single problem that is significant for the country, ”says Pogrebinsky
President without a team
Interviewed by RT experts predict a further decrease in the rating of Zelensky. Pogrebinsky believes that the president of Ukraine needs to "show determination" and change the team, which is "very weak and constantly let him down."
Ruslan Bortnik, Director of the Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Policy Management, holds a slightly different point of view. In a commentary on RT, he said that Zelensky really suffers from the incompetence of the team, but a momentary change in the composition of the Cabinet will not lead to positive changes.
“Zelensky does not have such a team, there is a political environment that has gained the opportunity to use power in the interests of Kolomoisky and Pinchuk. The president’s personnel decisions should be accompanied by deliverance from the people of oligarchs and agents of influence of Western states. Only in this case will the country have a chance for radical positive changes, ”Bortnik summed up.
However, Andrei Suzdaltsev believes that Zelensky’s rating will continue to decline regardless of how the composition of the Ukrainian government changes. In his opinion, since the inauguration of the president of Ukraine has shown himself to be "a weak and indecisive politician."
“The problem is not the government, but in Zelensky himself. His incredible popularity was based on the rejection of Poroshenko. The illusion was created that with the advent of the people's favorite, everything would change for the better. And what do we see in reality? Zelensky has all the levers in governing the country, but he does not use them, fearing responsibility for complex decisions, ”Suzdaltsev emphasized.