"Migration issues continue to divide parties"

Migration and integration policy is perhaps the most polarizing issue among Swedish voters today. The political debate on the subject is often fierce and on social media the language use can be harsh and unforgiving.

The entry of the Swedish Democrats into the Riksdag 2010 can be interpreted as something of a starting point for the rise of the immigration issue as a political conflict issue in Sweden. The refugee crisis in 2015 helped to make the issue even more politically charged.

Since then, the refugee issue has been at the top when voters rank the most important political issues.

At the same time, the political debate around migration and integration has changed in recent years. The tone of the debate has intensified and both the Social Democrats and the Moderates have switched from a generous to a more restrictive stance. This means that today on paper there is a majority in Parliament for a tighter refugee policy. The question, however, is what it means given that there is no basis for this majority to agree.

For although the Social Democrats draw similar conclusions on the refugee issue as the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats, it is hardly realistic for these parties to settle on a common policy.

At the same time, several of the political parties are deeply divided. This applies, for example, to the Liberals and the Social Democrats. Recently, several heavy social democratic representatives have called for tighter policies, including Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, who wants to reduce the number of asylum seekers and refugees who come to Sweden. However, this is a controversial message in our own government. The environmental party bluntly says no, which was clearly stated in Sunday's party leadership debate in SVT's Agenda. Nor will the Center Party support such a line.

And one thing we have learned from Stefan Löfven's actions in recent years: He is hardly prepared to sacrifice government power for a single political issue.

In the parliamentary committee that now looks at migration policy, there is a majority to tighten asylum policy, but that would require Löfven to make up his political enemies. So he doesn't seem to be interested in that.

Therefore, his strategy of all judgments will be to try to solve the issue within his own government constellation. Given that neither the Environment Party, the Center Party, or, for the part, the Liberals are prepared to meet him, the tensions in this issue will thus remain within the government constellation.

Of course, the issue of migration is not solely determined by national legislation. Swedish politicians have long sought a common EU policy in this area, partly to alleviate the pressure on Swedish legislation.

Discussions have also been held at EU level for several years, but the issue still seems to be blocked here. Several EU countries, such as Poland and Hungary, clearly say no to a migration policy which means that asylum seekers / refugees should be distributed among EU countries.

The flow of refugees across the Mediterranean also continues, although the volumes today are clearly less than 2015. However, Turkey's war in Syria may lead to more asylum seekers seeking refuge in Europe. Another issue is the EU refugee agreement with Turkey, which also risks cracking.

Swedish public opinion is at the same time divided on the issue of refugees and immigration. However, after the refugee crisis in 2015, more and more voters became negative to Sweden receiving refugees. Today, a clear majority wants to see a more restrictive refugee policy. For example, the SOM Institute's annual surveys show that 53 percent of Swedes want Sweden to receive fewer refugees, while only 22 percent think it is a bad idea.

This opinion poses a clear political risk to Stefan Löfven. Should voters perceive the government's migration policy as too generous, the Social Democrats risk continued electoral losses to the Sweden Democrats. In a situation with declining opinion support, it can develop into a political nightmare for the Social Democrats.

Thus, there is no indication today that the migration issue will, for the foreseeable future, lose its political explosive power in Sweden.