There are countless decisive weeks for Brexit, but the one that opens Monday, October 14, could be the right one. Ultimate and laborious negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union to try to reach a divorce agreement before October 31, the planned release date of the European bloc, are indeed planned.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will highlight his desire to achieve Brexit on Oct. 31 by presenting his national policy agenda on Monday in a traditional speech by Queen Elizabeth II, marking the opening of a new parliamentary session.

But London and the EU were cautious on Sunday on their chances of amicable divorce, intensive talks in Brussels over the weekend failed to breakthrough on the key issue of the border Irish after Brexit.

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"There is still a lot of work to be done" to break the deadlock, said Sunday Michel Barnier, EU negotiator on Brexit.

Identical statement at Boris Johnson. The British Prime Minister has considered that a Brexit agreement is still possible - a scenario that is his preference even if he is ready to leave his country of the EU without agreement - but that there is still "considerable work" to accomplish this. "

A European diplomat confirmed to AFP that there was "no breakthrough yet", suggesting that London should drop the ballast: "If the British government wants a solution, it must act quickly. .

The dilemma of the Northern Ireland border

Technical talks will continue Monday, but there is very little time left for both sides to succeed. European leaders will meet on Thursday and Friday for a summit in Brussels, presented as a last chance to avoid an exit from the EU without agreement to painful consequences, or a third postponement extending uncertainty about the path that the Kingdom will take United after forty-six years in the European fold. Ideally, the 27 would like to have a complete proposal on which to vote in the meantime.

London and Brussels fail to agree on how to avoid, after Brexit, a return to a physical border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which will remain a member of the EU , and thus preserve peace on the island, which has experienced several decades of violence.

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Since his Brexit plan in early October has been rejected by the Europeans, Boris Johnson has presented new proposals to his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar on Thursday. But few details have filtered into the concrete way in which London and Brussels intend to overcome persistent points of disagreement, notably on how to avoid the introduction of customs controls and the right of scrutiny given to the Northern Ireland authorities in the mechanism. .

Failing agreement, Boris Johnson forced to request a new postponement

According to press reports, London has proposed that Northern Ireland form a customs union with Britain, while belonging to a kind of customs zone with the EU. Unacceptable for both the EU and the North Irish ally of the British minority government, the Unionist Party DUP.

If he manages to conclude an agreement, Boris Johnson will still have the difficult task of convincing the Parliament, very divided on the Brexit, between supporters of maintaining close ties with the EU and zealous of a clean cut.

Failing agreement by Saturday, a law passed in September requires Boris Johnson to request a postponement of three months. The leader excludes him categorically, after two postponements of the Brexit since he was voted by referendum in June 2016. However, he never said how he could escape.

This request for a postponement will have to be unanimously approved by the other Member States, a request which it would be wise to accept if it were submitted, estimated outgoing President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker.

The depth of the political crisis is such in the United Kingdom that early general elections appear inevitable in the coming months.

With AFP