The first Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, intends to send an official request to London to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in the near future. As the politician said in an interview with the BBC, she “very soon, within a few weeks” plans to implement this in accordance with Section 30 of the Scotland Act.

“But we do not yet know who will be the prime minister. The situation is very unstable. Therefore, I decided to prepare everything from our side, and that is what we will do, ”Sturgeon said.

The British Parliament passed the Scottish Act in 1998. This law gave Scotland the right to have its own parliament and government, which can pass laws of regional importance and regulate tax collection. According to Section 30 of the Act, the British Cabinet may provide Scotland with the opportunity to hold an independence referendum.

Transitional Instability

According to experts, speaking of instability, the Scottish leader had in mind the situation around Brexit and the inability of the ruling Conservative Party to work out an agreement acceptable to all parties with the European Union.

Recall: Great Britain should withdraw from the EU on October 31. Initially, Brexit was supposed to take place on March 29, but London had to ask for an extension from Brussels in the hope of concluding a deal with European partners that would reduce the cost of Brexit for the British economy. The difficulties associated with the implementation of the "divorce" of London and Brussels, have already cost the post of Prime Minister Theresa May.

However, her successor Boris Johnson has not yet shown significant success in negotiations on the terms of exit. The politician insists on a “hard” brex if London cannot find a new compromise with the EU before the end of this month. However, many Johnson’s party members believe that in this case London will have to ask Brussels for another delay.

  • Jeremy Corbin
  • Reuters
  • © Simon Dawson

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit has already noticeably undermined the position of the ruling Conservative Party, and the opposition sees the current situation as a chance for revenge.

Speaking on Sky News, the leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin, said he did not rule out holding early parliamentary elections by the end of the year. The likelihood of such an outcome is very high, the politician believes. Corbin added that if Boris Johnson fails to work out an agreement with Brussels on the terms of Brexit or on deferring Britain’s exit from the EU, the Labor will "take parliamentary action against him."

True, in this case, Labor may need support from other parliamentary factions, among which there is a faction led by Nicola Sturgeon of the Scottish National Party (Scottish National Party - SNP).

As the first minister said in an interview with the BBC, although she advocates the removal of Boris Johnson from the post of prime minister and early elections, the SNP will not support the Labor Party if Corbin does not support the initiative for a new Scottish independence referendum. The first Minister of Scotland intends to get London’s consent to hold a plebiscite before the end of 2019, so that voting can take place next year.

However, Jeremy Corbin has already stated that he is not ready to agree to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence “during the formation of the Labor Government”, which will have to concentrate on such “priority tasks” as “resolving the situation with the conservative nightmare brexitis” and making “a significant contribution to improving the well-being of the Scottish people and communities, as well as transforming the public services of the region. ”

“Remain within the law”

Experts also doubt that the Labor Party, if it comes to power, will indeed support Edinburgh's demands for a referendum on Scottish independence. As Leonid Polyakov, head of the Department of General Political Science at the Higher School of Economics, noted in a RT commentary, neither conservatives nor Laborites consider Scotland's exit from the United Kingdom as an acceptable option.

“If Corbin leads the government, he will do everything to prevent this,” the expert explained.

This point of view is shared by the head of the European Security Department of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Danilov , who admitted that the SNP and Labor can enter into a situational alliance based on momentary interests.

  • People vote in a referendum on Scottish independence, 2014
  • Reuters
  • © Russell Cheyne

“But in the future, from the SNP and the Labor Party there will not be a coalition working for the future of Great Britain, because the Scots are striving to leave the kingdom, which is unlikely to suit the Labor Party,” the expert said in a comment to RT.

In recent years, Edinburgh has repeatedly stated its desire to hold another referendum on the withdrawal of Scotland from the United Kingdom, but this did not meet with approval in London. In May 2018, Theresa May, then prime minister, emphasized that there was no need for a new vote.

“Now is not the time for the next contentious referendum on independence, and there is no need for it,” the politician said.

After the Scottish side again raised the issue of a repeat plebiscite in early 2019, May called for respect for the choice made by the Scots in 2014 - then the advantage was on the side of the opponents of independence.

Since it is not yet possible to agree on a new referendum with the British Cabinet, the SNP calls for a vote to bypass official procedures. However, Nicola Sturgeon opposes this approach.

“We need to start a process that will give us the opportunity to demonstrate that the majority stands for Scottish independence. This process must be legal and approved; otherwise, our independence will not be recognized, ”says Sturgeon.

The politician added that she intends to “lead the country towards independence in an appropriate manner.”

“She will try to the last to remain within the law, so as not to allow Johnson to withdraw from the UK without a deal, because this option could harm Scotland. In addition, the SNP leader will try to use a possible alliance with Labor. Now Sturgeon is maneuvering to achieve maximum results, ”Polyakov explained in an interview with RT.

Meanwhile, opinion polls show that recently the number of supporters of Scottish independence is growing. In August, the results of a study by The Ashcroft National Poll were released, according to which 46% of respondents supported Scotland's secession from the United Kingdom, while 43% spoke out against. The Scottish opinion is strongly influenced by brexit: according to a survey conducted by Panelbase in April for The Sunday Times, in the event of a "divorce" from the EU without a deal, 59% of Scotland are ready to support Scottish independence.

Following the example of Catalonia

Recall that in 2014 a significant event took place for the Scots: they managed to get the consent of London to hold a referendum on independence.

  • Edinburgh, Scotland
  • AFP
  • © OLI SCARFF

However, as a result, 55.3% of the voters voted for the region to remain part of the kingdom. Scots value EU membership, which subsequently showed the results of another referendum - Brexit vote. In 2014, separation from the United Kingdom would mean for Scotland an automatic exit from the EU, as warned in Brussels. But today, against the background of Brexit, this argument is no longer valid.

According to Leonid Polyakov, now the situation around Brexit is entering its climax: on October 18, Boris Johnson is to present final proposals on the deal at the EU summit.

“If Johnson breaks his promise to withdraw Great Britain from the EU on October 31, he will lose his reputation, and the Laborites, led by Corbin, and the Scottish nationalists will take advantage of this. They will try to hold early elections, and what tactics SNP will choose for itself will depend on their outcome. If Johnson and the Tories hold out, it cannot be ruled out that the Scots can decide to take extreme measures and try to hold a referendum on independence without the permission of the central government, as happened in Catalonia, ”Polyakov suggested.

According to Dmitry Danilov, Nikola Sturgeon is unlikely to openly support nationalist sentiments, but the demands of Scottish independence advocates will in any case be heard louder.

“The growth of separatist sentiment became inevitable after the Brexit referendum, because it meant not only the disintegration of the EU, but also the beginning of such trends within the United Kingdom. In this case we are talking about objective processes and the fact that Cameron once laid a time bomb under his own state, ”the expert summed up.