Regardless of what US policy in Syria can do in the coming weeks or months, the damage has already taken place, and two announcements in a few hours summarizing Donald Trump's presidency style and risks are the first in a White House statement after a telephone conversation with the Turkish president. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, shocked everyone, including Trump administration officials, did not announce a surprise decision to withdraw US troops from the northeastern region near the Turkish border, and to abandon the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces that supported them, but gave the green light for a Turkish invasion of the region.
The second announcement was a tweet that followed an angry response from his party to the chaos that could result in an already unstable region. If Ankara commits anything that I consider "by my great and incomparable wisdom, out of the ordinary, I will work to destroy the entire Turkish economy," the tweet said.
However, Turkey believes that the SDF is no different from the PKK, which is considered a terrorist in Turkey, has been working for a long time to eliminate it, and now feels that it is in a suitable position to start the attack on those forces, perhaps in order to strengthen Erdogan's weakened local popularity. It wants to relocate some 3.6 million Syrian refugees who have become a source of growing discontent and rejection by the Turkish people to this area, which Ankara will control in northeastern Syria.
Although the Kurds are unenviable after fighting with ISIS, they are not surprised by what Trump has done, which he sees as his re-election largely dependent on sending US troops home. Only 10 months have passed since former Defense Secretary James Mattis resigned in protest at Trump's announcement that he would withdraw US troops from Syria.
In fact, there are no more than 1,000 US troops in Syria, and Senator Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republican majority, had previously announced that "withdrawing these forces would be in favor of Russia, Iran and the Syrian government."
Even if Trump was expected to withdraw his troops from Syria, the pace of decision-making and the lack of a clear plan were shocking. The worst-case scenario of a humanitarian catastrophe or the return of ISIS to the region can be avoided, depending on how the US administration thinks and how other parties respond, but the dangers of President Trump's foreign deals are growing with the approach of 2020, and the momentum of isolating President.
Turkey feels well positioned to attack the SDF, bolstering Erdogan's weak popularity.