Can Russia play the role of mediator in the Persian Gulf?

In an interview with a Saudi newspaper, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly expressed Russia's support for Syria's return to the Arab League and praised Saudi Arabia's ability to influence Syria's future.

In an on-site report, Samuel Ramani points to Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to Riyadh next week. He says Lavrov's interview has raised speculation that Putin will raise Syria's membership in the Arab League with Saudi officials.

Although Saudi Arabia has refused to resume diplomatic relations with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russian policymakers have remained optimistic about Riyadh's moderate rhetoric on Syria since early 2018.

In March 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated that Assad remained Syria's leader. In August, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir informed his Russian counterpart that Riyadh would cooperate with Moscow in the Syrian peace process.

Statements and decision
The writer adds that these statements - along with the decision of two of the closest allies of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates - to resume diplomatic relations with Damascus, prompted Russia to intensify its contact with Riyadh on Syria's membership in the Arab League. With Russian awareness efforts and Riyadh expressing solidarity with Damascus against Turkish military incursions, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to change its mind.

He argues that since Saudi Arabia has insisted that there is no room for a settlement on the war in Syria until Iranian militias are expelled from southern Syria, Saudi policymakers fear that changing their stance on Assad will convince Iran of the effectiveness of its maximum resistance strategy.

Distrust between Saudi Arabia and the Assad government is likely to prevent genuine normalization between the two countries.

For his part, former Russian ambassador to Saudi Arabia Andrei Baklanov told the same site that Bashar al-Assad considers Saudi efforts to overthrow his government treason, especially after Damascus supported Riyadh during the 1991 Gulf War.

Strategic reasons
Egypt believes that construction and engineering projects in Syria may be profitable and welcomes Saudi Arabia's entry into the Syrian market. The UAE is also taking steps to invest in the reconstruction process in Syria. A Syrian delegation met with major UAE investors in Dubai in January and a large group of UAE businessmen traveled to Damascus on August 30.

Supporting Assad's return to the Arab League would also be an effective way for Saudi Arabia to strengthen its relationship with Russia, and the stability of the OPEC Plus pact to control oil prices and the interest of the Russian Direct Investment Fund in cooperation with Saudi companies underline Russia's value as a potential international partner. For Saudi Arabia.

He says that while Putin is likely to urge Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Syria and market Russia's role as a potential mediator for dialogue with Iran, Moscow will struggle to secure Riyadh's immediate support for Assad's return to the Arab League.

For strategic reasons, Saudi Arabia's position could be in line with the Russian position, but as long as Riyadh and Tehran take a zero-sum approach to regional diplomacy, a shift in Saudi policy toward Syria may not lead to concessions on both sides or ease tensions in the Gulf. .