Few people believed that the British would vote yes to Brexit. But with hardly a majority and without proper analysis of the consequences, they did. Since then, the British economy has been buzzing, it was unforeseen, too.

Similarly, few, if any, predicted the consequences of the bank Lehman Brothers going bankrupt in 2008. Banks around the world were scared that they would just sit with Svarte Petter and refuse to lend money to each other. The financial market froze to ice and states and central banks around the world had to make money.

Difficult when the unknown happens

Since then, we live in a world with a negative interest rate, which was unthinkable just a few years ago.

So what about Brexit? What will happen if the UK leaves the EU without a deal?

When I ask the big banks about the consequences of a "hard Brexit", one responds that their model is not so dynamic. Economic models are good when the values ​​you put in are known. But when the unknown happens it's harder. Economics is a tricky science. Reality, and perhaps especially irrational actors who do not want to maximize their economic benefits, may disrupt the models.

Preparations may be too scarce

Investing in a disaster scenario in the back of the head would be too costly, says another. According to Finansinspektionen FI, the four major banks had total assets of SEK 531 billion at year-end 2017/2018 in the UK and FI.

Finansinspektionen admits that there is a risk that the preparations are too short. This applies to the whole of Europe rather than just to Sweden.

At the same time, FI warns that the ability of financial markets to deteriorate. That is, banks stop lending money to each other and the financial markets freeze to ice, ie 2008 once again.

But don't worry - this is known, is the contradictory message from FI.

Can't imagine

However, the most likely is an extension of the EU-UK negotiations. In August, the UK government published an overview of the consequences of a contractless Brexit.

Apart from food shortages and the fact that they trace chaos in the financial markets, these sentences are perhaps most interesting.

“Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal, etc.) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for. "

In other words, it is difficult to prepare for what cannot be imagined.