Three scenarios: the Ukrainian Foreign Minister spoke about options for the development of the situation in the Donbass

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine sees three main scenarios for the development of the situation in the Donbass: the continuation of the Minsk process, the delay in the settlement and the rejection of claims for this region. Such a statement on the air of the ICTV channel was made by the head of the foreign ministry Vadim Priestayko.

“You can try to come to an agreement within the framework of the unjust process that we entered many years ago. The second tactic is to drag out indefinitely, until they kill our soldiers and until the people on the other side of the contact line finally hate us and we can never return them, ”the minister said.

“And the third option is to never return to this part of Ukraine,” Pristayko added.

According to him, now President Vladimir Zelensky and his political team are “trying to finish” the work of their predecessors, starting with the Minsk agreements. The Foreign Minister noted that if the agreements are still not implemented, Kiev may turn to the international community for support.

“With the fact that we need, probably, a peacekeeping mission between us, and better — throughout the occupied territory,” TASS quoted the policy as saying. However, at the moment, Ukraine is not ready for such a scenario, Pristayko added.

Commenting on this statement, political analyst Ivan Mezyuho expressed the opinion that such rhetoric is designed to reassure nationalists opposed to the Minsk Agreement and Steinmeier’s formula.

“In this case, the Foreign Minister of Ukraine is trying to calm the radical part of Ukrainian society and explain the position of the office of the Ukrainian president. We see that the new Ukrainian government is following the path of non-compliance with the Minsk agreements and the head of state himself expresses thoughts that contradict the implementation of Steinmeier’s formula, ”the source said.

So, Zelensky noted that the law on the special status of Donbass would be consistent with the Constitution of Ukraine. However, the Minsk Agreement refers to the fact that a special status will be provided for in the main law of the country.

• The building destroyed in the aftermath of the APU in the Novoazovsky district of Donetsk region
• © Sergey Averin / RIA News

"Profitable to shift to Zelensky"

For a week now, a wide discussion has been actively ongoing in Ukraine around the implementation of the Steinmeier formula and the Minsk agreements as a whole. On October 1, contact groups, including representatives of Kiev, signed an agreement according to which the Ukrainian side will implement this formula.

It consists in a certain order of execution of part of the Minsk agreements. It is about holding local elections. So, the parties to the conflict must withdraw their forces along the entire line of contact, then local elections will be held in the Donbas according to Ukrainian legislation, and on the same day the law on the special status of certain districts of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions will temporarily apply.

Following the election, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe will release a report on these elections. If the OSCE recognizes them as legitimate and legal, then the law on special status will operate on an ongoing basis. Then, Ukraine will regain control of the border with Russia.

These agreements were reached back in 2016, but Ukraine agreed with them only on October 1, 2019. The decision was welcomed by both the countries of the Norman process - Russia, Germany, France - and others, including the United States and Great Britain. However, in Ukraine itself, the approval of this document caused a wave of violent protests.

Nationalists and representatives of the right-wing opposition, including ex-president Petro Poroshenko, took to the streets of Kiev and other cities with a demand to abandon Steinmeier’s formula and the Minsk agreements as a whole. The radicals call these agreements "surrender."

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It is noteworthy that Poroshenko himself signed these agreements as the head of state. The author of the formula, the president of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, also drew attention to this fact. He noted that in 2016, when he was the head of the German Foreign Ministry, negotiations to resolve the situation in the Donbass practically did not move, and therefore he proposed moving from substantial steps to small ones that are easier to implement.

“The formula contains nothing more than an attempt to turn big steps that both sides of the conflict were not ready to take into a series of small ones,” he explained.

Steinmeier also rejected the thesis that Russia allegedly influenced the content of this formula. In particular, nationalists argue that it is Moscow that is behind the language contained in it.

According to the expert of the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies Volodymyr Bruter, at the time Poroshenko, agreeing with Steinmeier’s formula, did so under the pressure of the situation in the country, but now it’s beneficial for the ex-president to change his position.

“Steinmeier’s formula is indeed very beneficial to Ukraine,” Bruter said in an interview with RT. “But the internal situation suggests that any Ukrainian leader is not interested in signing and implementing this.” Therefore, Poroshenko now opposes the formula. Now it’s profitable for him to shift his responsibility to Zelensky. ”

“Disrupt the implementation of agreements”

On October 1, Ukraine and the self-proclaimed Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics agreed to disperse forces in the area of ​​the settlements of Zolotoe and Petrovsky. It was reported that if earlier the beginning of the separation of forces was linked to a week of "silence" after the last shelling, this time, regardless of this, a date was set on October 7th.

However, on this day the withdrawal of troops did not occur. At first, nationalists from the Azov volunteer regiment said that they allegedly refused to leave Zolotoy at the request of local residents, also rejecting both Steinmeier’s formula and the Minsk agreements. Then Pristayko said that the breeding of power was disrupted due to the fact that a week has not passed since the last shelling.

“Unfortunately, you know that a few days ago Petrovskoye and Zolotoe were shelled, and as far as you remember, breeding will begin on the seventh day after there will be no shelling. We need to wait until the next period of seven days arrives, which proves that the parties have serious intentions, ”he said.

According to the head of the DPR Foreign Ministry, Natalya Nikonorova, such actions were the result of either the inattention of the Ukrainian side to the agreements, or their deliberate disruption.

“Today’s statement by the Foreign Minister of Ukraine indicates that the representatives of Kiev either didn’t bother to familiarize themselves with the conditions under which the parties agreed to eliminate breeding violations at the Petrovskoye-Bogdanovka and Zolotoy pilot sites, or intentionally disrupt the implementation of these agreements "- the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic cites her words.

In the LPR, they tied Kiev’s refusal to breed with nationalists who impede this breeding.

“Self-shelling is Kiev’s long-standing tactic for disrupting the implementation of the breeding agreement ... The main reason is the radicals that prevent breeding. Ze (Vladimir Zelensky. - RT ) has not yet decided what to do with them, but they will have to decide, ”said Rodion Miroshnik, representative of the LPR of the republic.

Later, the “112 Ukraine” TV channel reported that it was decided in the Ukrainian Armed Forces command to begin the separation of forces on October 9 at 12:00. The representative office of the DPR in the Joint Center for Monitoring and Coordination of the Ceasefire and Stabilization in the Donbass confirmed the willingness of the militias to resume the withdrawal of forces on the 9th.

Commenting on the development of the situation, Vladimir Bruter noted that Ukraine is moving slowly and inconsistently along the path to implementing the agreements. In his opinion, this is in particular due to insufficient pressure from other countries.

“He (Zelensky. - RT ) should not make serious concessions, and he will, if possible, dissuade him from all concessions within Ukraine,” the expert emphasized. - To expect that Kiev will comply with the agreements already reached in the form that is sometimes considered in Russia is excessive optimism. If Kiev does something, it’s only under very serious pressure. ”