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Residents and protesters cheer the arrival of indigenous protesters to support demonstrations against austerity measures by the Lenin Moreno government in Quito on October 7, 2019. REUTERS / Daniel Tapia

Tension has been high in Ecuador for almost a week following the announcement by the authorities of the end of subsidies for fuels. An essential decision to obtain a loan negotiated with the IMF. Following this announcement the transport sector mobilized and literally paralyzed the country, forcing the authorities to declare a state of emergency.

On Saturday, the transport sector announced that it was halting its movement , but indigenous communities decided to pursue it. This movement is hardening day by day, for proof: on Monday, protesters tried to storm the Congress in Quito. President Lenín Moreno announced the same day the transfer of the government to Guayaquil before a national strike scheduled for this Wednesday

Marie-Esther Lacuisse, doctor of political science, specialist in Andean countries (Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru), associate researcher at IHEL and collaborator for OPALC.

How did we get here ?

Marie-Esther Lacuisse: There is a central element in this crisis: it is the loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund that was signed last year by President Lenín Moreno. It is within the framework of this agreement that the price of gasoline must be increased, as there are conditions for the loan in view of the public debt in Ecuador - notably that of the end of subsidies for oil. It is not nothing since it represents one billion dollars a year. This agreement is rejected by the population , because it marks a return to the neo-liberal policies that were in place in the 90s, the era of agreements with the IMF, but also with investment banks, that is to say the era when the banking community was very close to the political world in Ecuador. This led to the dollarization of the country in 1998 and which led to very strong mobilizations. President Lenín Moreno pointed to Ecuador's deep rejection of international loan dependence.

Is this protest movement able to overthrow the government?

Marie-Esther Lacuisse : When we talk about Ecuador, we always ask ourselves the question because it is one of the countries that has experienced the most overthrow of presidents. Rafael Correa is the only president who has been able to finish his term since 1996, and moreover he puts it forward. Instability in Ecuador is strong. There are many political divisions within the party system. So this is a not insignificant assumption, even if for the moment the military are on the side of the president since they have helped the transfer of the government to Guayaquil.

President Lenin Moreno accuses former President Rafael Correa of ​​being behind this wave of protest. What do you think his accusations are based on ?

Marie-Esther Lacuisse : Lenin Moreno is in conflict with Rafael Correa, although he was his vice-president until 2013. He agreed to be a candidate for the alliance ("Alianza Pais") in 2017, while criticizing the transformation of the citizen revolution between 2006 and 2017 that led to more authoritarian practices and brought a lot of corruption to the institutions. Lenin Moreno wanted to stop it. Except that by posing as a president who wants to create a break and return to the origin of the citizen revolution while he practices a reverse policy, that is to say neo-liberal, Rafael Correa suddenly becomes a easy target because it does not question at all the reforms that it is carrying out. The conflict is there, but we can not say that this mobilization is conducted from the outside because we find the same actors as in 1998. The argument from the outside is used not to question the desired reforms by Lenin Moreno.

► See also: Ecuador: Lenin Moreno, this funny president of which little is known

What are the possible scenarios in the short term?

Marie-Esther Lacuisse : The first scenario regarding the political history of Ecuador for twenty years, is an impeachment of president. This hypothesis should not be overlooked given the mobilization. The second scenario involves negotiations. Lenín Moreno must return to reform issues. What promises to be complicated since these are measures that are conditional on a loan with the IMF. Either Lenin Moreno will leave, or there will be negotiations and a reverse, especially on the question of the price of gasoline. The transport unions lifted their strike last Saturday to engage in dialogue and compensation. Given the turn of the mobilizations since Monday one wonders in what measures negotiations can be put in place. With the government it seems complicated. I saw that the mayor of Quito called on all the mayors of the country to play the role of mediator and mediator, which could be the third possible scenario.

See also: Events in Ecuador: Reasons for anger