The American government analytical center RAND Corporation published a report on the Western strategy of counteracting Russia in the Black Sea region.
The research center, whose report was reviewed by RT, proposes to deploy air defense systems in Eastern Europe.
“The deployment of modern air defense and coastal defense systems in Romania and Bulgaria could help to increase the effectiveness of deterrence in the (Black Sea. - RT ) region to counter the threat of an offensive missile strike from Russia, expand NATO exercises and further assist the West in Ukraine and Georgia to develop them national defense potential, ”the report says.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in the fall of 2018 noted an unprecedented level of NATO military activity at Russian borders. According to the Russian minister, NATO has increased intelligence activity in the Baltic and the Black Sea region.
“NATO’s military activity at our borders has reached an unprecedented level since the Cold War. The alliance’s policy is aimed at strengthening its advanced military presence on the eastern flank, ”said Shoigu.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
- RIA News
- © Alexander Shcherbak
At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also emphasized that the buildup of NATO military infrastructure at the borders with Russia cannot remain unanswered.
The head of the foreign ministry recalled that at present the relevant brigades have been deployed in the Baltic countries, as well as the “creation of American missile defense global defense systems in Romania” and Poland.
“Yes, of course, this bothers us, it poses a real threat to the security of the Russian Federation, it grossly violates the fundamental act of Russia-NATO, which is instructed not to station substantial military forces on the territory of new members,” he said.
However, in April 2019, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the intention of the North Atlantic Alliance to call more often in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and Georgia, to conduct additional exercises with these countries and exchange data. According to Stoltenberg, this will "improve awareness of the situation."
So, at the end of July this year, Georgia hosted the Agile Spirit 2019 military exercises with the participation of NATO countries and their partners. As noted, the task of the maneuvers is to increase cooperation between the military and "contribute to maintaining a stable and secure situation in the Black Sea region."
"Diverging interests of countries"
Earlier, the European Parliament expressed concerns that a statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to increase the presence of the bloc in the Black Sea could worsen "good neighborly relations with Russia." The European MP from Spain, Javier Kouso Permuy, made this appeal. In a request addressed to Federica Mogherini, he also asked for clarification whether the head of EU diplomacy would persuade the alliance to reduce its military presence in the region.
However, American analysts note that the security problem in the Black Sea cannot be solved solely by force. The West should more successfully counteract "disinformation campaigns, negative influences and hybrid threats" from Russia, the report said.
Recall: the United States has repeatedly financed projects aimed at “strengthening democracy” and supposedly protecting the countries of the Black Sea region from hybrid threats.
For example, in mid-September 2019, the United States published a grant for joint projects with the EU in Ukraine. Priority areas of activity included Ukraine’s integration with Western markets, strengthening democracy and ensuring the country's energy and cybersecurity.
In addition, in May it became known that the Department of State's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor published a grant with an initial cost of $ 900 thousand in anticipation of the local elections in Ukraine, which will be held in 2020. The main objectives of the project are "strengthening democratic processes and supporting elections that meet international standards."
The West’s strategy is aimed at “isolating Russia,” said Konstantin Blokhin, an expert at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with RT.
“This is being done with one single goal - to create a line of Russia hostile to Russia alongside Russia. Through the report, they are trying to demonstrate to these countries that they are the territory in which Russia is conducting a hybrid war or an adaptive strategy, ”the expert suggested.
However, the aspirations of the NATO bloc often do not coincide with the interests of the countries of the Black Sea region, the report says. According to the authors of the RAND study, this makes it difficult to develop a unified strategy to counter Russia.
“The differing and often diverging interests of countries in the Black Sea region make it difficult to develop a unified and solid strategy for Western countries to counteract the harmful influence and intimidation of Russia in this region,” the analytical center notes.
The United States is gradually losing its influence throughout the European continent, said the military political scientist, head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova Andrey Koshkin.
“So geopolitical relations are developing that the United States today is losing to some extent the harshness of governing the states that are members of the European Union and the NATO bloc ... European states today no longer want to obey implicitly overseas requirements and would like to cooperate quite favorably on their continent or with states, in particular, the Middle East, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.
"Aggressive Entity"
RAND also outlined their vision of Russian strategy in the region.
“The Russian strategy provides for gradually increasing the influence of turning the Black Sea, as well as the Sea of Azov, into inland waters, where Russia will get the same freedom of action that it has secured for itself in the Caspian Sea,” the document says.
- Ships in the Black Sea at the Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port
- RIA News
- © Vitaliy Timkiv
In particular, as noted in the report, the main strategy of Moscow takes into account the specifics of each individual country in the region and provides for the preservation of the neutrality or weakened position of neighboring countries in relation to Russia or the West, as well as their exposure to political, economic or negative influence from Russia.
Meanwhile, Konstantin Blokhin, in an interview with RT, disagreed with such allegations. According to the expert, it is in Russia's interests to ensure stability and well-being of the Black Sea region.
“It is clear that Moscow needs stability (in relations. - RT ) with its partners, we need direct trade routes with Europe, that's why we are doing the Nord Stream, South Stream in order to overcome this sanitary cordon,” convinced Blokhin.
Meanwhile, the actions of the United States and NATO are provocative in nature for the Black Sea region and relations with Russia, Andrei Koshkin said in an interview with RT.
“Basically, they will provoke some tension in the Black Sea. And coastal complexes, which will cover both the sky and a certain territory of the Black Sea, should provide some reliability of possible provocations, possible actions of increasing tensions around our borders. This kind of doctrine or concept, which will now be deployed, also has an aggressive essence against the Russian Federation, ”the expert emphasized.
Recall that in April 2019, at the Moscow Security Conference, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu noted that the desire to present Russia as the main threat to the West became the dominant policy of the alliance, based on the principle of "I invented it - I believed it myself."
According to him, any practical actions of the alliance near the Russian borders lead to increased tension and require an adequate response.