A few months ago Albert Rivera conjured up his leadership to resist the pressures that would require him to invest Pedro Sánchez . His strategy orbited what the centrist (or right-wing, or liberal) leader baptized as the band: staying in no to push the PSOE to form a government with Pablo Iglesias and a constellation of nationalist and anti-system parties. While the resulting Executive was consumed in his own contradictions, he could jump to eat the few points that still separated him from the popular leader of the Popular Party. Perfect move. All red. It came out black.

Sanchez, again the best administrator of miseries, ignored the voices that a government was asking for at any cost and sponsored the failure of the negotiation with the renowned Iglesias. In July the band is over. He touched on another plan, but, incomprehensibly, Rivera was caught in the original contradiction of his bet: how could he explain to his electorate that he did not want to talk to Sánchez about his pacts with independentistas and proetarras when he had the 57 seats that could avoid them? Problems of demonization of the adversary.

In the end it was neither the establishment , nor the factual powers, nor the Ibex, nor the Monarchy, but the simple political reality that has pressured Rivera to lift a possible veto on Sanchez in exchange for guarantees that limit the influence of independence and populism

The question now lies in whether rectification arrives on time. The electoral situation does not grant Rivera any chance of being president of the Government, nor of competing with Pablo Casado as leader of the right. You have to conform - who was going to tell you! - to gather enough seats to be a hinge, that is, to return to the exit box. And they are not guaranteed.

Sanchez has put Errejón to compete on his behalf with Iglesias on the left, while he can concentrate on plucking Rivera through the center.

Apart from the credibility of its leader, Ciudadanos has left the way to the figures of his economic team, has diminished the political capital of Inés Arrimadas - suffocated by the failed strategy and overshadowed by Álvarez de Toledo - and has impoverished his speech in Catalonia. This Monday debate in the Parliament a motion of censure aimed at demonstrating the closeness of the PSC with independence, but that runs the risk of showing its two years of inactivity despite being the most voted party.

Its failure and that of Podemos in the attempt to replace the PP and the PSOE is accidentally redirecting Spain towards a bipartisanship of assisted breathing and drip. The permanent absence of state policies has penetrated the scenario. The model of extortion to the Government of the day to extract resources is being replicated in other regions. First it was Cantabria - "we want our money", Revilla dixit - and now Teruel appears.

Obviously, it is not the same to impose currency loyalty on the State, as the abertzales do , than the legitimate claims of empty Spain. But in such an atomized Congress, a seat of a few thousand votes can be worth a high-speed train to the door of the house. It is as a balancing element where Citizens can be useful again.

Rivera has seen two windows of opportunity - the fall of Rajoy and the last elections - to make the leap to the Presidency of the Government. And in both Sanchez has won the hand. Its voters will celebrate that, after so many yellow months, it has turned red at once. Make game.

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  • PP
  • PSOE
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  • Pablo Casado
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • Pedro Sanchez
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  • Inés Arrimadas
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  • Albert rivera
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  • General elections

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