NHK politics manager appears, Abe 4 selection? What about dissolution? Covered October 3, 13:27
“The Prime Minister said,“ I ’ll do one more time when I ’m remodeling. ”
That means ...
“There is no“ one more time ”twice. That is, there are no four choices.”
Oh, have you decided already? I doubted my ears. It is the word of a Liberal Democratic Party executive after the cabinet remodeling.
In addition, another administration executive said, “There are not four choices in the mind of the“ now ”Prime Minister.”
Isn't it true that Prime Minister Abe hasn't chosen four LDP presidents? And the dissolution of the House of Representatives during his term.
I explored that possibility.
(Saiki Hara)
Support rate is rising due to cabinet remodeling
First, let's organize the current situation.
Some readers say "I know that", but I'd like to read it for a while because I want many people to read it, including those who are not familiar with politics.
The term of office of the president is two years remaining. On November 20, the term of office will be the longest in the history of constitutional government.
Therefore, a remark that is conscious of post-Abe comes out. On the other hand, there are some voices that you expect from the four selections.
On September 11, the 4th Abe Second Remodeling Cabinet was established.
Following last year's cabinet reshuffle, the opinions of each faction's territory were incorporated, and many so-called members of the waiting group entered the cabinet for the first time, and members close to Prime Minister Abe were appointed as key positions. There was a voice that hesitated, "Elimination of inventory, Cabinet of friends."
However, due to the influence of Koizumi's appointment of the environment, public opinion surveys of the Asahi Shimbun, Mainichi Shimbun, and Kyodo News have raised the cabinet support rate.
(The Yomiuri Shimbun fell. NHK's poll results are scheduled for mid-month)
Cabinet remodeling is often done by the administration at the time with the aim of overcoming the difficult situation, but the effect is often temporary, and the cabinet support rate has dropped sharply due to scandals and remarks by new ministers. It may be invited.
Twelve years ago, Prime Minister Abe himself made a reshuffling of the cabinet right after the House of Councilors 'defeat, but the ministers' “politics and money” issues continued to resign.
However, Prime Minister Abe showed his attitude to proactively appoint the waiting group to the cabinet as soon as possible. In the background, it seems that the cabinet support rate was steady in various opinion polls and exceeded the disapproval rate.
“I am not thinking of raising the support rate by remodeling,” bullish voices also leaked from the surrounding area.
Concerned about the “Fixing the Cabinet” ...
"Mr. Koizumi, seeing off the cabinet"
Because of this, there were a series of reports that Mr. Koizumi's high-profile public admission was postponed just before the remodeling.
Mr. Koizumi has supported former Secretary-General Ishiba who competed with Prime Minister Abe in the previous LDP presidential election.
In addition, it has been said that there is a distance from Prime Minister Abe because there was a background to refraining from appointment as Deputy Secretary of the Secretariat.
For this reason, it was certain that there was a strong view that there was no entry into the cabinet this time.
However, Prime Minister Abe was considering appointing him as a minister early on.
On the other hand, in fact, the effect of being fixed in the cabinet was also considered.
Under such circumstances, the Secretary of the Secretary of Secretary Abe pushed Abe's back.
“Mr. Koizumi will not refuse”
Prime Minister Abe finally decided to consult the cabinet with information from Mr. Tsuji. Mr. Koizumi also agreed.
“The House of Representatives may be dissolved sooner”
In response, the Liberal Democratic Party began to hear voices over the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the time of the general election.
"Expectations" from "Third Devil"
Within the Liberal Democratic Party, there are over 120 members who are elected for the first time under Prime Minister Abe.
So-called Abe Children.
Among them, there are more than 80 members who were elected for the first time in the 2012 House of Representatives election when the LDP regained power. It is also said to be “Third Devil” due to a series of disagreements and scandals.
Veteran lawmakers complain that they only know the election in a favorable situation.
The site was confused with things that volunteers came to support in the disaster-affected areas.
And so on.
Many of these legislators may not have a solid election base,
“I want to fight the election in the best possible situation”
That psychology works strongly.
That is the reason why the expectation for the early dissolution of the House of Representatives and general election is given.
These members have another common point.
There is a strong sympathy for the Abe administration as he has been elected under Prime Minister Abe, and there is high expectation for Prime Minister Abe's four elections.
Reasons for the Abe Long-term Administration
Why was the political situation called “1 strong and weak” and “Abe 1 strong” established?
There are various factors, such as the failure of the Democratic Party administration, the improvement of the economy, and, moreover, the adoption of policies that are deeply liberal, but the point is that Prime Minister Abe has won the election every year.
The criticism of “abuse of dissolution rights” comes from the opposition parties, but since returning to the Liberal Democratic Party President in 2012, Prime Minister Abe has no doubt missed every year and faced the national election or the Liberal Democratic Party President Election, which was “winning” Has been repeated.
It can be said that the 2015 presidential election, which is the only exception, won the power struggle in the sense that it was not brought into the election.
“It is not easy to quit the Prime Minister”
When the prime minister changed every year, I often heard these words from ruling party executives.
It is not limited to the Democratic Party administration, but includes the previous LDP administration. Even if the need to replace the prime minister increases due to various factors such as a deadlock in important policies, a decline in centripetal force and support, it is difficult to resign unless the prime minister decides.
In other words, if you win the election every year, the power base will be stronger. It can be said that the political situation of “1 strong and weak” and “Abe 1 strong” has been strengthened by repeated “winning” in the election.
"Business outlook" behind expectations of dissolution
Uncertainty about the unprecedented uncertainties is increasing due to various factors such as intensifying trade friction between the United States and China, the hard withdrawal from the EU in the UK, the tightening of the Iranian situation, and the future of the global economy.
In addition, the consumption tax rate was raised to 10% this month.
Furthermore, infrastructure demand accompanying the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics will decrease as the opening season approaches.
“And then the economic outlook is not necessarily bright.”
Prime Minister Abe emphasizes the idea of taking economic measures without hesitation depending on the economic trend, but there is a sense of caution that the economy may enter a recession phase within the ruling party.
“If so, I want you to hold a general election before the economy gets worse.”
This is one reason why expectations for early dissolution and general elections are rising within the LDP.
"The ruling party can't win even with a low turnout," opposition parties said
The other is the opposition trend. Only he is here. The ruling party also visited Shigen Town, who is interested in trends.
“The next House of Representatives election will change the regime.”
An opposition leader, who was instrumental in bringing together opposition forces, said after the Upper House election.
“Even if you see Saitama ’s governor ’s election, the public expects a change of government.”
In August, the governor's election in Saitama was a collision between ruling and opposition candidates.
Initially, the ruling party seemed dominant, but the opposition side reversed.
The executive mentioned that the turnout was over 30%,
“That turnout is the victory of the ruling party.
But the ruling party is not winning even with a low turnout. ''
Emphasized.
Even if we looked at the voting behavior of the non-partisan group in the NHK exit survey, it was flowing from the ruling party to the opposition party.
In the previous election of the House of Representatives, the Constitutional Democratic Party, the National Democratic Party, the Communist Party, etc., unified the candidates in 32 one-person districts that determine the whereabouts of victory or defeat. As a result, although it did not reach the previous 11th, it won in 10 constituencies.
For the opposition party, it may not be as effective as expected, but from the ruling party's side, it is true that the number of constituencies that lost the game increased. Opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party, are forming a unification group in preparation for the next House of Representatives election, and are strengthening cooperation.
This is another factor in the Liberal Democratic Party that has high expectations for early dissolution and general elections. For members of the LDP who have a weak electoral base, the real intention is to avoid a one-on-one match with the opposition lawmakers as much as possible under the small constituency system where only one person can win.
Hurdle to 4 selections
According to the rules of the Liberal Democratic Party, the term of office of the governor has been set for many years, “one year for three years, until the second consecutive term”.
In response, Prime Minister Abe's term of office became the second year until September 2021. The term of office of the House of Representatives expires in October of the following month.
However, in order to realize four elections and Prime Minister Abe will continue to administer the government after September next year, he must change the party rules and win both the LDP presidential election and the House of Representatives election.
This is an extremely high hurdle.
“It ’s better to quit here”
I got a chance to hear from the executives.
“The economy turned around, the job offer ratio was high, and the longest long-term administration in the history of constitutional government.“ If you quit cleanly here, you can leave an influence. ”This is the real intention of Prime Minister Abe.
Indeed, Prime Minister Abe himself denies the possibility of four choices.
Even with this reshuffle of the Cabinet, a system has been put in place to allow members of the Diet, who are considered presidential candidates, to take up important positions and compete. Is Prime Minister Abe looking for the time to quit, not aiming for the fourth election?
However, the administration executive continued to say:
"Neither Sato Eisaku nor Koizumi Junichiro, who established a long-term administration, did this for the last two years."
“But is it possible to maintain the administration in such an era now? It ’s also a terrible story for the new president,“ I'll do the full term and leave the rest. ”
The executive pointed out that the early dissolution of the House of Representatives should not be ruled out.
If Prime Minister Abe serves as prime minister for the full term, the Liberal Democratic Party will go to the House of Representatives election after the presidential election.
For this reason, the presidential election is expected to have the appearance of choosing a signboard for the House of Representatives election. In particular, young members who are elected will prioritize national popularity over intentions such as faction sleeves.
On the other hand, if the House of Representatives election wins prior to the presidential election, expectations for the four elections will increase, and it can be a leverage for the revision of party rules. Furthermore, even if it does not aim for 4 selections, the lam duck of the administration can be avoided.
These calculations can also be read from the remarks of this administration.
When is the dissolution?
So when will the House of Representatives be dissolved? The House of Representatives has been dissolved only during the opening of the Diet so far, and in some cases, an extraordinary Diet has been convened to break up.
I would like to see the future political schedule here.
Looking at the future political schedule, the time of dissolution will be considerably narrowed down.
There will also be other important international conferences that Prime Minister Abe will attend at the end of this year, such as the summit of the APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference.
In addition, leaders from all over the world visit Japan for the “Imperial Religion Ceremony”, where the Emperor declares his throne inside and outside. It is not easy to dismiss the House of Representatives and hold a general election in the meantime.
Turning to next year, the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics will be held from July 24th to September 6th. It's hard to understand how much to hit a general election just before the "World Festival" is held in Japan.
On the other hand, next year, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, which are particularly important by the coalition Komeito, will refrain. The Komeito party should hate to hold a general election in the vicinity in order to ensure that the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections are complete.
In fact, one Komeito party is
“If possible, I would like you to leave about half a year.
He said.
In other words, dissolution is limited to three timings!
The closer the expiration of the term, the more the government loses the strength to tackle new policy issues and falls into Laem Duck. It is inevitable that interest in the Liberal Democratic Party will shift to the next choice of president and that the centripetal power of Prime Minister Abe will also decline.
In addition, the dissolution of the House of Representatives and general elections when the term of office is scarce will be difficult to gain understanding within the ruling party.
When thinking so, the timing of the dissolution and general election is
▼ Beginning of next year's regular Diet
▼ Extraordinary Diet after the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics
▼ The beginning of the regular Diet next year
This is the area that is being squeezed.
So the cause of dissolution is
However, in order to disband and hold a general election, a “righteousness to ask the people for trust” is also required.
It is also important to win the election that an easy-to-understand cause can be prepared, such as “postponement of the consumption tax rate increase”.
Prime Minister Abe raised the constitutional amendment to the fore in the House of Councilors election, and at the press conference after the remodeling, he expressed his determination to realize that the constitutional amendment was a long-cherished desire since the LDP party.
Nonetheless, in the previous House of Councilors elections, the constitutional power, including the Komeito, lost two-thirds of the power necessary for the proposal of a constitutional amendment.
The Komeito Party is cautious about early reforms, and the National Democratic Party, which had shown a positive attitude toward the constitutional debate during the election campaign, decided to form a reunification party with the cautious constitutional democratic party. There is no change in the situation that cannot be seen.
However, if the constitutional debate progresses and a referendum on the constitutional amendment is carried out, the option of the dissolution of the House of Representatives and general elections will naturally emerge.
And are there 4 choices?
The 2012 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, in which five candidates, including Prime Minister Abe, run for the final vote.
At the last minute, in the Abe camp,
“You should aim to be the prime minister and governor.”
The main war theory,
“It ’s also an option to work with other factions and aim for the secretary.”
It is said that the claim that said.
Even after the establishment of the second Abe Cabinet, there was intense debate around Prime Minister Abe over visits to Yasukuni Shrine and postponement of the consumption tax rate hike, and Prime Minister Abe made a final decision each time.
Is Prime Minister Abe left for the dissolution and general election of the House of Representatives in the remaining tenure with a view of four elections? Or will the term expire?
At the press conference in New York the other day, Prime Minister Abe said about the dissolution and general election of the House of Representatives
"None of my head, of course, in the middle"
It was stated again.
However, the following voices are leaking from the surroundings.
"What do you think will happen if the Northern Territorial Negotiations or North Korea's abduction issue begins to move?"
“There will also be an American presidential election next November. If President Trump is re-elected, what will happen to the party's voice?”
I see, in that case ...