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  • Maneuver: between tight deadlines, tax wedge and fight against tax evasion. Monday 30 in the Council of Ministers

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28 September 2019The note to update the DEF, the Economic and Financial Document, will arrive on the Council of Ministers' table on Monday. At the Ministry of Economy the technicians are committed to defining the macroeconomic framework that will frame the next maneuver but some key choices are still lacking, starting from the node of the sterilization of VAT.
The Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, and the Economy Minister, Roberto Gualtieri are both in Rome and at work but at the moment no new political meetings would be scheduled.

The declared intention of the Giallorossi executive is to block the already foreseen increases for 23 billion, but still clashes with the problem of resources. Despite the flexibility that the executive is hoping to see in Brussels (for about 10-11 billion) the coverings would not have been found yet to guarantee also the cutting of the tax wedge and a first tranche of measures for the family, starting from nursery schools .

Meanwhile, the negotiations with Brussels continue to the end to snatch margins of flexibility for 10-12 billion bringing the deficit to 2.2%, even if at the moment it seems more likely that by 2020 a programmatic target of 2.1 will be indicated %. While GDP growth should be revised to 0.5-0.6%.

The main objective remains that of avoiding the increase in VAT, which without countermeasures would lead from January to the ordinary rate from 22 to 25.2% and that reduced from 10 to 13%. "The solemn commitment is to deactivate the safeguard clauses", assured the premier, Giuseppe Conte, explaining however that the government "is working on some modulation, but with benefit for the Italians".

An operation that is worth over 23 billion, or about 1.3 points of GDP. The resources should come from the lower interest expense deriving from the decrease in the spread (3-4 billion) and from the savings of the yellow-green flag measures, 100 and citizenship income, which could guarantee resources of up to 6 billion. The executive also points to a new round of spending review for 4-5 billion, a billion should come from the cuts to the ministries, and the revision of the tax expenditures.

Then there is the "pillar" of the fight against tax evasion, with a package of measures that could bring between 3 and 4 billion euros. These include the introduction of "incentives for the use of electronic cards". Next, therefore, on the road to traceability.