Nearly a year ago, US President Donald Trump survived the Muller Commission investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election, but months after the 2020 presidential campaign began, President Trump faces a second crisis of collusion with Foreign powers, this time is Ukraine, to influence the next election.

Trump acted to force Democrats to actually begin his removal process, in accordance with the established legislative and legal rules of the American political system, but these actions are unlikely to result in Trump losing his presidency, as the legislative and legal process for his removal will take place within the same three precedents. Trump is likely to face the fate of former President Bill Clinton by a House of Representatives vote on an indictment to convict him, without the Senate approving some of the charges in the list or all of which.

The US political scene is in the midst of a political crisis, on the one hand, the Democrats on the one hand, and President Trump on the other. Former US president and Democratic candidate in the upcoming elections, Joe Biden, and he suggests that the Ukrainian side should cooperate with US Attorney General and his lawyer Rodney Giuliani, to discuss this issue of corruption. In this context, Democrats believe that Trump violated the law, and sought to collude with a third party to intervene in the elections, while Trump rejects the accusations, and here can be pointed to five dimensions of this crisis:

1How did US institutions deal with the Ukrainian issue ?: Although the phone call between Trump and the President of Ukraine took place on July 25, 2019, the crisis erupted in the second half of September 2019, after the newspaper «Washington Post», on September 19, a report on An intelligence official uncovered the public content of the call, a person who was deemed a “whistle-blower” or who sounded the alarm over the president's violation of the law, prompting the Justice Department to conduct a telephone inquiry, but concluded that the law was not broken. Connection. This position prompted some members of Congress, especially on the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees, to request a hearing on the issue, but the White House tried to block it, and as the debate on the issue increased in the media, Democrats began to move to employ it against President Trump.

2 Trump and the White House: After the Ukrainian issue turned out to be a real crisis, President Trump began to take a defensive stance by launching a counter-campaign against Democrats and Joe Biden, in which they focused on trying to repeat what happened in the Muller Commission, in order to influence his position. Trump also defended his position in talking about his lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, during the call. The White House acted in support of the president. On Wednesday, September 25, the transcript of the telephone conversation between President Trump and the President of Ukraine was published to demonstrate that there was no collusion and that he did not urge his Ukrainian counterpart to discuss allegations of Biden's son's corruption.

3 Democrats move and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shifts: Trump's stance and White House efforts to block a congressional hearing on the Ukrainian issue, and White House pressures on the intelligence community, prompted the inspector general of the CIA to slow down reporting the text; The move to take a strong position, after they found out that Trump colluded with a third party, to harm Joe Biden's position in the elections, where the purpose of Trump's request to the President of Ukraine to open an investigation into allegations of corruption of Biden's son, is to influence the position of Biden a Democratic change is Nancy Pelosi's position, after intense internal pressure within the Democratic Party, Pelosi changed its rejection in the past to move within the Council to isolate the Trump, the actual declaration of carrying out those steps, during the coming period.

4 Republicans' Difficult Position: Despite the resentment of some Republicans towards Trump, the crisis of the Ukrainian issue imposed on them the support of the president so that the Democrats will not succeed in undermining him, but this state of support has not crystallized in a strong position to defend him. But after the White House released the transcript, Republicans speaking to The Washington Post in a report on Wednesday began to worry about the repercussions of the transcript, which points to Trump's actual involvement in the Ukrainian issue.

5 Public debate in Washington: In light of the ongoing tensions between Trump and the mainstream US media, coverage of some of these media, such as the New York Times, The Washington Post and CNN, has helped to highlight Trump's position and focus. As actually involved. In the context of the media attack on Trump, questions were raised about the reasons for the White House announcement to stop military aid to Ukraine, two weeks before the phone call, to put pressure on the Ukrainians, and questions were raised about Trump's position in support of Rudy Giuliani.Many analysts and legal experts focused on Giuliani's connection with the whole Ukrainian question raises suspicion. There is a possibility that it was he who planned and managed the question of the need for Ukrainian investigations to distort Joe Biden's position in the elections. In the same context, it was stressed that Giuliani is Trump's personal lawyer, and does not work for the White House or the US government, and therefore he defends the interests of Trump.

CONCLUSION: The United States is in the midst of a political crisis, with Congress initiating legal proceedings to isolate President Trump, which could take months, will continue to be the focus of debate and debate within US circles, and although it may not end with Trump's actual dismissal, its implications will now extend. Until the next presidential election in November 2020.

Trump's isolation procedures

With Democrats actually moving to initiate legal proceedings to isolate Trump, and work to indict him, the general frameworks governing the isolation process and how it takes place can be noted in the following aspects:

1. Impeachment in American political culture: Impeachment in American political culture refers to the set of measures by which a president is removed from office. These actions are a lengthy process that takes place in Congress and is conducted according to steps in which the House and Senate play a role. If the president is dismissed, the dismissal may take place, but the end result may be a failure to reach a decision to remove the president from office. The US Constitution sets out general frameworks for the removal of the president, in Article I, which deals with Congress and its powers, and in Article II, which deals with the President and his powers. According to the two articles, the procedures to isolate the US president take place in two stages: the first in the House of Representatives and the second in the Senate.

2 The legal process for impeaching the US president: The impeachment procedures of the US president are carried out in a legislative and legal process that takes place in two phases: The first stage is conducted within the House of Representatives, where the Council conducts an investigation and examines the president's accusation of impeachment. Three, including: (treason, receiving bribery, committing crimes or violating behavior of a dangerous nature). Following the investigation, the President's conviction will be voted on, requiring a simple majority of the members of the House of Representatives to approve the indictment to take effect, and then move on to the second phase. The second phase of the removal process takes place within the Senate, in which the Senate conducts a formal trial of the president, in which members represent the jury, and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court oversees the trial of the president. Accusations against the President are correct. If two-thirds of the members do not agree, it means that there is no consensus to accuse the President of the acts that require his removal from office, and thus continue to serve regardless of all previous actions to try to remove him from office.

3. Trump's de-facto isolation process: Since the announcement by Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, that Trump's de-facto isolation measures have been initiated, mainly by Democrats, the next steps in Trump's impeachment process will take several steps, starting with the establishment of the relevant committees: The Intelligence Committee, and some other committees), will debate the indictment against Trump. In this context, according to what is currently being raised, Democrats will focus on indicting the president on the Ukrainian issue, which is a violation of the “Election Financing” law, which is to communicate with a third party to influence elections, or election-related laws, and the goal of focusing. On these laws, he is charged with violating his presidential powers and carrying out some form of national treason as president. After extensive discussion in these committees and a vote on the final indictment, the entire House of Representatives will vote on the indictment of the president, and if approved by a simple majority, the second stage of the removal procedure will take place within the Senate, taking into account the extent The process, which could take a long time, is taking place in the first two phases, but press reports say Democrats want to complete the removal of Trump in the House of Representatives before the end of the year.

3 scenarios

The initiation of legislative procedures, within the House of Representatives to remove Trump, does not mean effectively removing him from office, but only to indict him, in preparation for trial in the Senate, and to decide the matter. According to precedents for the isolation of three US presidents: Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton, it is likely that the final results of the process of isolating Trump will not break these precedents, as follows:

According to the previous three scenarios, the possible course of Trump's removal includes three possibilities: The first is his incomplete removal procedures, as was the case with Johnson.In this context, an indictment is presented in the House of Representatives, but voting fails because the quorum is not complete. Relatively unlikely, given that Democrats control the House of Representatives, and therefore the House is likely to vote to approve an indictment, and move the procedures to the Senate, in which case the scenario of Clinton's isolation with Trump will be repeated, when the Senate refused to approve the indictment, and this Is inevitable L closest in Trump's case, given Republican control of the council. The likelihood of President Trump resigning like Nixon is relatively unlikely.

- Trump began to take

Defensive,

Launch a counter campaign

Against the Democrats

And Joe Biden.

- The scenario of Clinton's dismissal, when the Senate rejected

Approval of the indictment, is the closest possibility

In the case of Trump, given Republican control

On the board.