“According to the hailey lycli formula”: why France, Britain and Germany accused Iran of attacks on Saudi refineries

France, the UK and Germany have claimed Iran’s responsibility for the attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. This was reported in a joint communique published on the website of the German government.

“It is obvious to us that Iran is responsible for this attack. There is no other plausible explanation, ”the report said.

Eurotroika also condemned the blow at the refinery and expressed solidarity with the people of the kingdom.

“The purpose of the attacks was probably Saudi Arabia, but these attacks are a cause of concern in all countries and increase the risk of a serious conflict. They emphasize the importance of collective efforts to achieve regional stability and security, including finding a political solution to the current conflict in Yemen. The attacks also point to the need for de-escalation in the region through continuous diplomatic efforts and the participation of all parties, ”the communiqué says.

European countries said they support the investigation to establish the details of what happened, and recalled their “commitment to the JCPOA”.

“We again urge Iran to cancel its decision to refuse to fulfill a number of the terms of the Agreement and to fully adhere to its obligations under the Agreement. We urge Iran to cooperate fully with the IAEA within the framework of the JCPOA and the Comprehensive Organization Safeguards Agreement, ”the German government’s website says.

The statement also highlights the importance of collective efforts to ensure stability and security in the region.

“We reaffirm our conviction that it is time for Iran to begin negotiations on the long-term framework of its nuclear program, as well as on issues related to regional security, including its missile program and other delivery vehicles ... We urge Iran to engage in dialogue and to refrain from provocations and further escalation, ”the communiqué notes.

• US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
• Reuters
• © Jacquelyn Martin

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised the joint statement of France, Germany and the UK.

“The United States thanks our close friends: Great Britain, France and Germany for their clear statement about Iran’s sole responsibility for the hostilities against Saudi Arabia that have affected the region and the world,” he wrote on his Twitter page.

The US thanks our close friends, UK, France, and Germany, for their clear articulation of Iran's sole responsibility for the act of war against Saudi Arabia and its impact on the region and the world.

Pompeo also called on other states to “condemn Iran’s actions.”

Under pressure from the USA

Recall, on September 14, two oil refineries of the state-owned company Saudi Aramco were attacked by drones. As a result of the incident, Saudi Arabian oil production halved - by 5.7 million barrels per day, and the price of fuel on world markets increased sharply. Responsibility for the attack on the Saudi refineries was claimed by the Hussite Yemeni rebels. Prior to this, they have repeatedly launched rockets and UAVs at facilities in Saudi Arabia. Two days after the strike, representatives of the movement stated that they could again attack targets in the SA and called on the leadership of the kingdom to stop hostilities in Yemen.

Despite this, Washington blamed the attack on Iran. According to Pompeo, Tehran "launched an unprecedented attack on global energy supplies." Iranian Defense Minister Amir Khatami, in turn, rejected such allegations.

According to an expert from the Institute of the Middle East, Sergei Balmasov, a joint statement by France, Britain and Germany was made under pressure from the United States.

“The statement of the European countries on Iran’s guilt in the attack on the Saudi refineries is a negative sign demonstrating problems with their sovereignty and making independent political decisions. No wonder Pompeo praised his European colleagues, ”said the expert in an interview with RT.

At the same time, he noted that to change the position of the EU on the issue with Iran, the United States uses economic blackmail.

“If London has traditionally supported Washington, then Berlin and Paris need to be encouraged to make such statements. At the same time, Trump needs the unity of the West to achieve his goals, therefore the White House is blackmailing European countries with economic issues, ”said Balmasov.

At the same time, experts noted that the European trio has declared its commitment to the JCPOA, which may indicate that the EU’s resistance in this matter has not yet been broken.

• Workers at the affected Saudi Aramco facility
• Reuters
• © Hamad l Mohammed

In turn, a professor at Moscow State University, an expert on the Middle East, Alexander Vavilov, called the statement of the European trio political. He emphasized that experts should decide on the guilt of a country.

“Whether there is another plausible explanation for what happened or not, should be decided by the experts who are now conducting an investigation into this case: experts from the UN, the USA and many other countries are at the scene,” Vavilov said in an interview with RT. - At the same time, European countries have already blamed Iran, because they need to find the culprit. After all, someone should answer for what happened to the Saudi oil-producing facilities. Here they acted according to the formula known as Salisbury’s Hailie Likeley. ”

“They will not back down”

After France, Great Britain and Germany blamed Iran for the attack on the refinery, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif criticized the actions of European countries to comply with the nuclear deal.

"The helplessness of the European trio in matters of fulfilling its obligations (under the JCPOA - RT ) without the approval of the United States has been evident since May 2018," he wrote on his page on Twitter.

Zarif also called on Paris, Berlin and London not to be like Washington, demanding that Tehran fulfill conditions incompatible with the JCPOA.

Earlier, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, in a telephone conversation with French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, said that Tehran would return to its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan if European countries comply with the terms of the nuclear deal.

"The third stage of Iran (to reduce obligations under the JCPOA - RT ) is under the supervision of the IAEA, and it is reversible," the statement said on the website of the Iranian leader.

According to Balmasov, the accusations against Iran can be used by European countries to justify the failure to fulfill their obligations under the JCPOA.

“Obviously, clouds are gathering over Iran. If Washington intensifies pressure on European countries, they will have to tighten sanctions against the Islamic republic. The White House wants the Europeans to be able to get as few benefits as possible from cooperation with Tehran, and the Islamic Republic, in turn, did not receive money from them for its development, ”the expert said.

However, Iran is likely to "not back down" on the issue of the JCPOA, Balmasov said, since he no longer has confidence in Western countries that violate the agreements.

“In this situation, Iran will more actively interact with Russia and China. Iran will begin to look even more towards those countries that have sovereignty and a greater level of negotiability than Western countries, ”the expert noted.

• Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
• Reuters
• © Official President website

Balmasov also does not exclude that the joint statement of the European trio could give impetus to Tehran to further reduce the fulfillment of its obligations under the JCPOA.

“Washington is seeking this. For the hawks, it will be a godsend if Tehran flares up and moves in a confrontational direction. The United States will benefit from this situation, as it will spur new spending on defense, explain the need for further modernization of the US defense industry, push for a new arms race and the need to demonstrate its muscles, ”the analyst concluded.