Presidential Election: "Ennahda did not want the presidency"

A third place synonymous with defeat for Ennahda? The first round of the Tunisian presidential election saw Kais Said, a neophyte in politics, create surprise by arriving at the head of the first round of the presidential Sunday, followed by the media magnate Nabil Karoui. The party of Islamist obedience Ennahda, majority in Parliament, whose candidate came third, is not defeated so far.

"Ennahdha did not want the presidency, what matters to him is the Parliament," said Youssef Cherif, political analyst, interviewed by France 24.

If the party has submitted a candidate, it is primarily because of the electoral calendar upset by the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi. Because of the death of the latter while he was in office, the first round of voting fell three weeks before the legislative elections. An inversion which pushed to present a candidate to avoid being excluded from the debates.

"The goal was not so much to win the presidential election as to be present in the debates", confirms Déborah Perez, doctoral student at Sciences-Po Aix and specialist in Tunisia, interviewed by France 24. "With the inversion of the calendar It was impossible for them not to present a candidate, so they chose the most presidential candidate: Abdelfattah Mourou, a lawyer, a bourgeois, who belongs to the Tunisian traditional elite. He was one of the founders of Ennahda but was able to dissent on certain subjects and has a consensual profile designed to reassure not only public opinion but also donors and foreign partners. "

A little disturbing defeat for the future

The day after the announcement of the results and the confirmation of the third place with 13% of the vote, the staff of the party has been working to minimize the event. Samir Dilou, campaign director of the candidate Abdelfattah Mourou, recalled that this presidential election was "an unprecedented step in the course of Ennahdha", since it was the first time that the training presented a candidate for Carthage, seat of the Presidency.

"We can not really speak of an erosion of the electoral potential of Ennahdha, it is certain: there has been a retreat compared to previous elections and we must learn from it," said Samir Dilou. "This erosion did not affect only Ennahdha, but all the other parties and politicians," says Abdelfattah Mourou.

An analysis to which Deborah Perez subscribes: "With 436,000 votes collected, we remain close enough to the hard base of voters Ennahda.It is not a huge electoral setback especially since the party is in government since 2011. In the At the same time, Youssef Chahed, Abdelkrim Zbidi, all those who experienced the power, received a scathing snub, "says the doctoral student. "The electorate of Ennahda has certainly eroded, but it has maintained much better than that of the other parties."

Internal debates on smoothing the image of Ennahda

"However, there is a malaise that accompanies this defeat," nuance Youssef Cherif. "We see that its bases and some of its executives are dissatisfied.The smoothing of its image, the non-renewal of its leadership, and the economic situation of Tunisia have pushed many supporters to internal revolt."

Ennahda has indeed undertaken a task of de-demonization by decreeing, in particular, the separation between the spheres of religion and politics at its 2016 congress. He also dropped the label "Islamist" and now prefers that of "democrat Muslim". The party is seeking consensus.

"Some of the electorate of Ennahda was disappointed in the alliance with Nidaa Tounes in 2014 [Ennahda had then chosen to govern with the party of Essebsi at the price of important concessions, Ed] and was able to When one looks at the figures, among Kaïs Saïed's voters, there were disappointed Ennahda people, which is not surprising, in any change of regime, there is a volatility of the vote. "

Notable parliamentary stability

"But disappointed voters will not find an alternative to the legislative elections because Kaïs Saïed has no party, so they should join Ennahda's ranks," said Youssef Cherif, who sees the party as one of the top three parliamentary groups. and in a position to form alliances with parties in close positions.

Deborah Perez highlights the stability that Ennahda has embodied since the 2011 revolution: "In addition to the volatility of the vote, there is a volatility in the partisan affiliations of regime change: the parliamentary groups fracture, the deputies change their minds. Affiliation, the parties are made and discarded.And again, Ennahda is an exception in the landscape because it has been able to renew itself, to emerge new figures while keeping the same outlines.

Kaïs Saïed, compatible with Ennahda?

While in 2017, during the previous presidential election, Ennahda refused to publicly support one of the finalist candidates, this time, he clearly expressed his support for Kaïs Saïed, Friday, September 20, which promotes the chances of this former law professor to prevail. "Ennahda has chosen to support the choice of the people," his spokesman Imed Khemiri told AFP.

A little surprising choice, the constitutionalist is known for his ultra-conservative positions in the societal field, which makes him "Ennahda-compatible". He thus spoke out against the equality between men and women in the inheritance, against the decriminalization of homosexuality or the abolition of the death penalty.

"Besides these issues, the rally is not surprising.Kaïs Saïed is someone who has managed to gather around him those who are for regime change since 2011," said Deborah Perez. Last argument in favor of this alliance, "Kaïs Saïed has promised to respect the letter of the Constitution and has a restrictive vision of the role of President, a position that Ennahda will accommodate very well."

Tunisia will elect its deputies on October 6, then choose its president by mid-October. The date of this second round depends on the examination of the recourse of the disappointed of the first turn. A quick conclusion on these protests would allow the presidential election to be organized at the same time as the legislative elections, otherwise, it should take place on October 13th.