Abdullah Hamed-Cairo

The January 2011 revolution or President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, which is the most influential reason why Egypt is currently suffering from the threat of losing its rights in the waters of the Nile by Ethiopian dams?

A question arose after Sisi's remarks at the youth conference, when he made it clear that had it not been for 2011 (the January revolution), Ethiopia would not have built the Renaissance Dam.

Sisi's remarks came in the context of intimidating the Egyptians from taking any steps to try to change similar to what happened in 2011, warning, "The most dangerous that you repeat it again, and tell me a solution, Sisi and give us water, well you did this."

But Sisi 's remarks clashed with facts and evidence from recent history that he personally bears the bulk of Ethiopia' s encouragement to build the dam.


Dam and Revolution

Ethiopian preparations date back to the beginning of the century when they unveiled plans to establish projects on the Nile.

Egypt has asked Sudan to allow it to set up a military base on its territory, should Ethiopia insist on moving ahead with its plans, according to leaked documents published by WikiLeaks in 2010.

Months after the publication of the document, the Ethiopian government announced its intention to start implementing it, despite several rounds of negotiations.

After the January Revolution and Mubarak's mandate to the military council to run the affairs of the country, the council was responsible for this dangerous file for a year and a half, during which Sisi was the director of military intelligence, and met with a number of symbols of the revolution and the military council saluted its martyrs, before the coup and described it as a conspiracy.

Two months after the revolution, politicians and activists from the revolutionary forces formed a delegation called popular diplomacy. He traveled to Ethiopia to meet with its leaders and convince them to stop the dam.


Morsi failure

Negotiations continued under the late President Mohamed Morsi, and Morsi held a consultation session with politicians, technical and security experts at the presidential palace, whose events were leaked live, and pro-state security agencies were accused of involvement in the diversion to embarrass Morsi and thwart his efforts.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry succeeded on April 23, 2014 (about a month before Sisi took over) to obtain a European-Russian-Chinese decision, in conjunction with the World Bank, to stop financing the Renaissance Dam, and to stop the loans that Ethiopia would receive from China, Italy and others, Construction of dams on the Nile.

However, Sisi surprised the Egyptians, Chinese, Russians and Europeans by signing the Declaration of Principles in March 2015, abrogating the 1902 agreement that prevented all Nile Basin countries from building dams on the Nile except with the consent of Egypt and Sudan.

Prior to this agreement, Ethiopia was handcuffed in requesting international funding for the construction of the dam, and then proceeded to seek international funding for the construction of the dam.

El-Sisi said at the time that Ethiopia had the right to make a comprehensive renaissance, and that dams for electricity production were a necessity.

Despite the widespread criticism of the agreement by Egyptian experts, the media and official newspapers and close to the regime cheered the agreement, bearing the promising headlines that "Sisi dissolved."


They are the solution

The successive facts dispelled the illusion of Sisi 's solution to the grave crisis, but he continued to reassure the Egyptians. Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia regarding the Renaissance Dam. "

The three leaders, holding hands, showed a sign of "solidarity and a spirit of positive cooperation" as official Egyptian media.

The Ethiopian is divided
Six months after this intimate meeting, Sisi met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed in Cairo, and made him repeat a section in Arabic that his country would not harm Egypt's share of the Nile water, sparking satirical comments on social media platforms, observers stressed that such dangerous files are not managed Related to national security.

Observers conceded the failure of Sisi's statements in early 2016 - and repeated in 2018 - that the shortage of drinking water and irrigation could be compensated by sewage treatment.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry acknowledged the failure a few days ago when it informed Arab foreign ministers on Tuesday, for the first time, that they face difficulties in the dam negotiations, and Ethiopian quirks.


Intimidate the Egyptians

Observers believe that Sisi is forced to declare the failure in the file and show how dangerous it is, to intimidate the Egyptians to repeat the departure of his regime, as they did in 2011.

The Israeli intelligence website DEPKA published two months ago the Netanyahu government rejected Egypt's request not to deploy the advanced air defense system "Spider MR" to protect the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, stressing that Ethiopia has already completed the installation of the Israeli regime around the dam and operated it.

In the view of observers, this step encouraged Ethiopia to reject all Egyptian proposals to fill the dam over longer periods, and stopped negotiations after achieving its goal to build the dam completely, and it is time to fill.


Mubarak and the dam

Dams expert Mohamed Hafez says the Mubarak regime has agreed to the entire hydro-hydraulic dam system that Ethiopia plans to build before 2025.

Hafez said in his interview with Al Jazeera Net, that many documents at the World Bank confirm the submission of former Minister of Irrigation Mahmoud Abu Zeid an official request to the World Bank, to collect donations and loans to the Ethiopian state to help them in the construction of the Renaissance Dam and other dams Blue Nile.

He pointed out that Hosni Mubarak was encouraged to build a system of hydraulic dams on the Blue Nile since 2008, and Ethiopia used this approval to expand the dimensions of the dam to a capacity of 74 billion cubic meters, several months before the downfall of Hosni Mubarak.

Hafez said that the Renaissance Principles Agreement signed by Sisi in 2015 did not include setting Egypt's quota in specific figures such as 55.5 billion cubic meters, instead merely a very flexible sentence, which is not serious harm, opening the door to all Ethiopian interpretations.

Hafez predicted that the dangers of the Ethiopian dam would exacerbate the Egyptian state by the water shortage in Lake Nasser by about 34 billion cubic meters annually, causing Bouar at least five million acres of agricultural land, with a devastating social and economic impact on Egypt.