In recent weeks, in the political sphere there have been two threats on the table: the electoral repetition and the jump to the national policy of Íñigo Errejón. The first has been consummated. The second remains to be seen. While in the bosom of More Madrid there is a debate about the advisability of running for the next general elections these days, in Podemos there are those who already make numbers. Officially there is talk of respect, democratic normality - "It's the most natural thing," said Irene Montero yesterday, who paused her maternity leave for an interview - or that the "pinch" would be for the PSOE, but the truth is that if former number two decides to appear in Madrid and Teresa Rodríguez consummates his intention to present himself autonomously in Andalusia under the Adelante Andalucía brand, the seats of members of Pablo Iglesias' hard core would be in danger.
The fall in the generals of 28-S already caused Juama del Olmo, Secretary of Communication and member of the team closest to Iglesias, to stay out of Congress. Now, Gloria Elizo or Rafael Mayoral , numbers 4 and 5 on the United We Can List for Madrid , could be in danger. Today there are no published surveys that measure the Errejón effect if you decide to present yourself to the generals. The most plausible option in case your team decides to take the step, is that it is presented only in the Community of Madrid, although voices in your party bet on doing so also in other territories.
There are projections managed by the demonstrators who grant between four and six seats to More Madrid . Votes stolen, above all, to Podemos, which would notoriously accuse the bite, -sacked six on 28-A- and Citizens . «It makes sense and story that More Madrid is presented», reflects Andrés Medina , founder of Gravitas , an electoral analysis company that worked in Moncloa with Rajoy. «It conveys a sense of mainstreaming and there is a favorable atmosphere to get a vote. I could even get a group in Congress and be a kind of PNV in Madrid ».
Fuentes de Más Madrid recognize that the political and media pressure of recent days has caused their participation in the general elections to be a topic that is discussed in the formation, which has gained presence. However, they maintain that there are currently no meetings convened to discuss it formally. There would be no final decision made. What is clear is that a training sector is pushing hard to present itself. Paco Pérez , councilor of More Madrid in the Madrid City Council, is of that opinion and has even written that "should attend the constituency of Madrid headed by its main referents, with the aim of exceeding 15% of the votes and be able to form an influential parliamentary group in the House. " Yesterday, Manuela Carmena was ruled out to lead this possible candidacy, according to El País .
The dome of Podemos maintains the equidistance, the coldness. They avoid harassing their former number two , but they say they are confident that they will trace the "traitor" image on the left. In any case, they are aware that that fork of seats, around five, is a possible goal for Errejón.
Andalusia
Andalusia is the other great front for Iglesias. The anti-capitalists, led by Teresa Rodríguez , are determined to present themselves under the Adelante Andalucía brand. They consider that the brand Podemos penalizes them, while the other "adds". At the moment they reach out to do so in a consensual way with the national leadership, so that there are not two lists - one from Podemos and one from Adelante Andalucía -, but the decision in Rodriguez's team seems final. "Forward Andalusia not to break, to add," said yesterday the Andalusian leader, who is determined to have a voice in Congress, an Andalusian group.
"For the next generals we can repeat the experience. Within the project of Unidos Podemos, like other experiences in Catalonia or Galicia . A single ballot of change. And our own group that speaks in Andalusian," Rodriguez reflected yesterday.
The anti-capitalists resigned to participate in the last primaries of Podemos, in disagreement with the process. That is why Rodríguez does not have any related deputy in Congress. Presumably, if you impose your brand, decide your candidates, your list heads. And that's where names like Alberto Garzón , Noelia Vera or Pedro Honrubia , who were head of the list in different provinces, would be in check.
Valencia
Madrid, Andalusia ... and Valencia. Another front, where Compromís is the object of desire of Podemos and Errejón. Its leader, Monica Oltra, is clear: you have to find an entente again with Podemos to fight bipartisanship next 10-N. After the nationalist coalition gave pumpkins to Pablo Iglesias in the last electoral calls (general, autonomous and municipal), the Valencian president understands that the current context forces Compromís to "recompose a left alliance" so that the progressive voter does not have "too difficult" when "choosing ballot". Thus, bet on a front that collects all discontent with Sanchez of the leftist elector.
The electoral call has reopened an eternal debate in Compromís among those who think that it is necessary to appear alone or those who advocate seeking the shelter of a national party for the appointment with the polls. And it is that, without Podemos, the nationalist brand had a hard time in the last generals taking out a single deputy for Valencia ( Joan Baldoví) . The debate is open and nothing will be decided until next Monday's executive.
In Podemos they admitted to this newspaper that leaders of Compromís have contacted them to see their predisposition to recover the electoral mark A la Valenciana that made them (during the two consecutive elections of Rajoy) in the second force in the Community above 25% of the props. However, in Podemos, who have not just seen the agreement with Compromís clear, they ask the coalition to clarify before sitting at the negotiating table. In addition, the interim situation experienced by the purple formation in the Valencian Community does not help, so the final decision, on the part of Podemos, seems to have to be taken from Madrid.
Compromís is a coalition of three parties and, depending on who is asked, one thing or another is said. There are even those who bet to run away from Pablo Iglesias and aspire to draw some kind of entente with the new brand of Íñigo Errejón. In the Senate, Compromís already shares the confederal left group with Más Madrid. However, Oltra said yesterday that he does not consider a scenario with more political forces than are already on the scene. In case anyone had any doubts, he disdained the alliance with Más Madrid whom he "sees very focused on the Community of Madrid".
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