• 10-N. Pedro Sánchez's closure condemns another electoral repetition
  • Election calendar: Spain takes the road to the polls

Vox is one of the parties to which the polls have been pointing out as one of the victims facing the November 10 elections, together with Citizens and United We Can. However, the internal fear of a new election date that was palpable a few months ago within its ranks - when the first signs emerged - has recently turned to moderate optimism. Obviously nobody in Vox has them all with them, but those of Santiago Abascal are clinging to new factors that they consider determinants to withstand the type. Even to grow. It is thought that a demobilization of the left, with a fall in participation compared to April, could be more than a salvation table for them. As already seen in the Andalusian elections.

A CLEARER RIGHT

Sources of the Vox leadership consider that one of the important differences regarding the previous elections is that the space on the right will be clearer than then, because the PP will look especially towards the center to enter the battle for voters who dispute with Cs (one million) and the PSOE (about 500,000). That is a more moderate PP instead of "cornering" on the right in search of the 600,000 voters that would be at stake between popular and Vox. This is seen as an opportunity to take many of them and strengthen those who are already there.

From 'fear' to 'PROCÉS'

Vox raises a campaign with the "same message and ideas" as the 28-A to consolidate its space, with the conviction that Vox stopped giving "fear" in sectors that settled down then. Leaders defend that Vox "has fulfilled" its role: helping to drive to the left in places like Madrid and "opening new debates" such as immigration, gender ... Also, if Catalonia was the gasoline that ignited Vox at the end of 2018 , the sentence of the process is presented as an option to present his most strenuous speech and claim as the hard hand against secessionism. The lists will not be revolutionized. There could be "tweaks." There will be no signings.

DISCUSSIONS

In the post-election analysis of Vox, it was concluded that being left out of the television debates was crucial. Now they celebrate for all they will be and consider it key because Abascal will speak for millions of Spaniards. "The important thing about the debates is that you are on the menu. It is true that everyone does not like you but maybe others do," they say. In Vox they believe that it is the main revulsion because their message will arrive "direct" and their leader can explain and present themselves. In addition, coverage and regular presence in the media are guaranteed.

PAPERS AND GRANTS

Another of the most celebrated factors in Vox is the fact that they now have the resources to send the ballots home, so that voters can go out with them in the envelope without having to expose themselves in schools, especially in smaller places. Management sources estimate that this can mean for them between one and two points in percentage of vote. Key, they say, in the fight for seats. There is also a great economic leap. It will be his first campaign with money from grants because he is already in Congress, plus what he enters for affiliates. A professional and less amateur campaign.

LOW PARTICIPATION

The disaffection for repeating elections is a relevant factor because it is estimated that there could be a demobilization of the left. This would lead to a drop in participation that could lower the price of votes needed to win seats. It would allow Vox to stay or climb even losing thousands of supports. Their own calculations are that they paid a high price in April for each deputy and that with the participation equivalent to that of 2016 they would have been about 40 seats instead of the 24. Sources of Vox remember that there were eight provinces where they stayed at less than 5,000 votes of a seat: Albacete , Cantabria , Castellón , Cuenca , Huelva , Jaén , Málaga and Ceuta . In collation of disaffection, the role of "new" party could be used by Vox to take out its most irreverent and anti- establishment side to charge against politicians.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

  • Vox
  • PP
  • Citizens
  • Jaen
  • Madrid
  • Malaga
  • PSOE
  • United We Can
  • Albacete
  • Huelva
  • Cantabria
  • Castellón
  • Catalonia
  • Ceuta
  • Basin, watershed, catchment area, socket, bowl, hollow
  • Politics

PoliticsJunts per Catalunya, after meeting with the King: "We will not move a millimeter of 'no' to Pedro Sánchez"

Politics The 'procés' confronts Pablo Iglesias with Pedro Sánchez in full attempt of Podemos to negotiate

Politics The PP opens to Vox entering Spain Sum: "We would include the parties that prioritize the unity of Spain"