Paris (AFP)
The OECD expects the world economy to record its lowest growth rate this year since the 2008/2009 financial crisis, due to uncertainties around the trade war, Brexit and private debt.
Global growth is expected to fall below 3% this year to 2.9%, 0.3 percentage point lower than in the latest May forecast, and is expected to remain virtually stable at 3% in 2020 (-0.0%). 4 point compared to the projection of May), estimated the institution based in Paris in its updated forecasts published Thursday.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which reviews its figures four times a year, now expects global growth to be "the lowest since the financial crisis with risks that continue to rise."
In the eyes of the OECD, clouds continue to accumulate for all major world economies, especially for the euro area and especially for the major emerging countries that are experiencing the slowdown in China with a drop in their exports of materials. first.
On the old continent, Germany, the leading European economy, suffered the largest downward revisions, with growth expected at 0.5% this year (-0.2 points) and hardly better next year at 0.6%, half less than expected in the latest forecast in May.
If Italy is not expected to grow in 2019 and rebound slightly next year to 0.4% (-0.2 points), France should do better than its two main partners in the euro area with a growth of 1, 3% in 2019 (unchanged) and 1.2% in 2020 (-0.1 point).
The British economy, in full uncertainty on the Brexit, is expected to grow at a rate of 1% (-0.2 point compared to the latest forecast) this year and fall to 0.9% next year ( -0.1).
The United States, which is experiencing one of the longest growth cycles in its history, is expected to slow to 2.4% this year (-0.4 points from the latest forecast) before falling back to 2%. in 2020 (-0.3).
As for China, expected by the OECD at 6.1% this year (-0.1 point compared to the May forecast), it is expected to fall again and fall below the symbolic 6% next year. 5.7%.
In this gloomy context, the institution has mainly cut in its forecasts for emerging countries, lowering that of India in particular by 1.3 points to 5.9% this year and 1.1 point that for 2020 to 6, 3%.
The most critical situation is that of Argentina, in the midst of economic and financial turmoil, which should experience an aggravated situation this year, with a recession of 2.7% of its GDP, then a decline of 1.8%. next year.
© 2019 AFP