Is Turkey seeking a nuclear weapon?

Zaher Bey-Ankara

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's comments on nuclear weapons last week sparked controversy in the Turkish media, especially when he said: "They have missiles with nuclear warheads, they are not one or two, but more, but they refuse to have the same rockets. .

In his statement, Erdogan referred to Israel as a non-member state of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Observers disagree on the interpretation of the Turkish president's statements and the feasibility of their application.Each of these understandings in the context of seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon like the big powers, while others considered it just talk to the emotions of national masses, since Turkey currently does not have the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon.

Turkish ambition
International law professor at Kocaeli University and Turkish military expert Samir Salha said that many security and strategic research and studies centers have been meeting for nearly a decade in their analysis at the intersection of Turkey's nuclear ambitions in light of the tension in the region.

He pointed out that Turkey is one of the actors that will carefully monitor international developments, where it has strong incentives to pursue a nuclear path in view of its weaknesses and strategic position.

Salha told Al-Jazeera Net that "more than technical and scientific evidence and indicator confirms that Ankara has entered the nuclear path, and will not hesitate to accept the offers of Moscow, and perhaps Beijing later, as long as its national security and regional interests and maintain strategic military balances in the region at the forefront of its objectives."

He considered that the acceleration of work at the "Akoyo" nuclear plant being built under a Turkish-Russian contract model of purchase, ownership and operation, and Turkey's insistence on the development of the work and scope of its local missile system, in addition to Turkish concern about the movement of some capitals in the region to search for possession of this weapon; A scenario in which Turkey is going to get this weapon in one way or another.

Different goals
He pointed out that the Turkish goal is very different from the leaks and positions issued by some European and Middle Eastern capitals on the Turkish nuclear program, which has been looking since the early nineties to develop itself and complete the scientific and industrial conditions and specifications to join this field in order to obtain enriched uranium from partners and allies. Asian capitals have cooperated with them in the past.

He added that "the remarkable here is the absence of any figures announced in the Turkish military budget for the development of this sector, despite talking about estimates of up to 25 billion dollars in the framework of five-year plans to produce Turkish non-conventional weapons."

He pointed out that the tension between the US-Turkish relations and the continuation of the Turkish-Russian rapprochement; will push Ankara to review its nuclear policy in the end, in terms of considering an independent nuclear weapon of its own, despite the economic and political cost that may be exposed, even if Ankara finds itself face to face in a European confrontation Threatens its membership in the group.

He stressed that this Turkish approach - if correct analysis - will also prompt Ankara to review its position on the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which prohibits it from acquiring a nuclear weapon or the use of nuclear technology for military purposes.

Insufficient capacity
Ali Husain Bakir, a strategic researcher at the Orsam Center in Ankara, disagreed with his predecessor. "Turkey currently does not have sufficient capacity to produce a nuclear weapon, neither scientifically nor in terms of infrastructure readiness, or the financial capabilities required to finance a This type".

Bakir told Al-Jazeera Net that "Turkey is a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the NPT in all its forms, and these treaties prohibit it from proceeding with a nuclear program of a military nature, even if we assume that Ankara wants to have a military nuclear program, it will have to withdraw in time." Of these treaties or their breach, and in both cases there will be international consequences. "

Bakir pointed out that Turkey does not need nuclear weapons as long as a member of NATO, its membership in addition to enjoying the cover of extended US deterrence, allowed it to be one of only five countries enjoyed the right to store US nuclear bombs on its territory; Italy: Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany.

He explained that these bombs stored at Incirlik Turkish air base are not under the direct control of Turkey, but they still exist, and as long as the relationship with Washington still exists, and NATO membership is effective, it will be difficult for Turkey to justify the acquisition of a nuclear weapon.