Most Britons support referenda on independence in Scotland and Northern Ireland should the United Kingdom withdraw from the EU. This is evidenced by a survey of the sociological service BMG for the newspaper The Independent, which was held September 3-6 in England, Scotland and Wales.

The most favorable respondents to the referendum in Northern Ireland. For the government to allow residents of the region to decide whether they want to remain part of the United Kingdom or to become part of the Republic of Ireland, 52% of respondents spoke in favor. Against - only 19%. The rest could not decide.

As for Scotland, the gap between the supporters of the referendum on independence and its opponents is not so significant: the first - 45%, the second - 30%. However, it should be noted that the Scots are much more serious about holding a referendum than the North Irish. In 2014, a referendum on independence was already held in Scotland. Then opponents of the division won, gaining 55.3% against 44.7%.

Now the first Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, has announced that in the event of Great Britain's withdrawal from the EU, the Scots should have the right to reiterate the advisability of being part of the United Kingdom in 2020. Back in May, the Scottish National Party, ruling in autonomy, drafted a bill describing the mechanism for its implementation. True, a specific voting date is not indicated in it. It is only noted that the expression of will will take place no later than 2021.

Supporters of the branch say that independence is needed to maintain Scotland's membership in the European Union. Opponents of maintaining the current status of Northern Ireland are guided by similar motives. Here, judging by a survey conducted by the sociological service of Lord Ashcroft, those who advocate joining Ireland in case of Brexitis are about the same as those who support the idea of ​​remaining in the UK: 46% versus 45%.

“I was always afraid that Brexit would increase the likelihood of the collapse of the UK, and the results of this poll (BMG. - RT ) confirm this,” Lord Peter Hein, former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, told The Independent in an interview.

Principles of democracy

Meanwhile, experts draw attention to the fact that the BMG poll does not at all indicate the advantage of supporters of the referendum.

  • Demonstrators on march in support of Scottish independence in Glasgow
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  • © Russell Cheyne

“The country is in a deep political crisis. Such a mess, people are so not sure about the future of the country, that such polls can be quite arbitrary. Respondents speak of a certain hypothetical situation, therefore it is too early to draw conclusions. However, I don’t think that reasonable British would like the collapse of their country, ”said Kira Godovanyuk, senior researcher at the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with RT.

A similar opinion is shared by the assistant professor of integration processes at MGIMO, Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli. In an interview with RT, he emphasized that Her Majesty’s nationals in favor of referenda in Northern Ireland and Scotland did not necessarily support the independence of these territories.

“These people are guided by democratic principles. If Britain was allowed to speak out of the EU, would it not be fair to allow Scotland and Northern Ireland to determine their position on independence? ”Says Tevdoi-Burmuli.

At the same time, experts note that the public position in the UK on the issue of referenda on independence in Northern Ireland and Scotland will play a decisive role. Indeed, according to British law, consent to a plebiscite must be given by the parliament of the kingdom, where it is customary to listen to the opinion of voters.

At the same time, Scotland will not be able to ignore the opinion of London and unilaterally declare independence - in this case, it will not be accepted into the EU, therefore the importance of opinion polls in the current situation is growing, analysts say.

From their point of view, the British will be seriously affected by the awareness of the importance of their position on the future of the country.

“The consequences of separating Scotland or Northern Ireland will be colossal. This will mean that Great Britain will cease to exist. It will be a tectonic shift economically and politically, ”says Tevda-Burmuli.

It all depends on the conditions.

The attitude of the British to the referendums on separation directly depends on the conditions under which Brexit will occur, experts say.

“If the withdrawal from the European Union takes place without a deal and on rather harsh conditions, then, of course, centrifugal trends in the UK will intensify. Then in the regions they will seriously seek to hold referenda on independence, ”Godovanyuk notes.

  • Cupcakes in Edinburgh Bakery Showcase
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  • © Russell Cheyne

The chances of secession from Scotland in this case are higher than that of Northern Ireland, says Tevda-Burmuli. This is due to the different history of the two regions. In Scotland, unlike Northern Ireland, the confrontation between supporters and opponents of the separation never took extreme forms. Therefore, there is no fear that separation from the UK could lead to bloodshed. In addition, having separated, Northern Ireland is more likely to join Ireland. And not only local Protestants, but also many Catholics do not want this, the expert recalls.

At the same time, political scientists emphasize that at the moment the British do not understand what kind of brexit will be.

“Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he does not seek to leave the European Union without any conditions. He says he wants another deal to exit the EU. However, he knows that the European Union will not make any other deal. Brussels has already spoken about this a hundred times. And there’s no time to review the conditions of Brexitis. The UK should decide before October 31, ”says Tevda-Burmuli.

Kira Godovanyuk, in turn, recalls that Johnson represents both public opinion and parliament a “hard” brexit as a forced and last resort, which one way or another will be avoided.

“Moreover, the Prime Minister linked his political future with Brexit, and the British see it. Everyone understands that MPs will raise the issue of Johnson's resignation if he fails to get out of the EU on conditions acceptable to the country. Therefore, while the British simply do not know what will happen after Brexitis. They do not know the consequences. Naturally, this is reflected in the survey data, ”Godovanyuk concluded.