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Taiwan takes care of its young democracy as if it were a delicate piece of Chinese porcelain. Freedom and respect for human rights under which 23 million people live is the only thing that legitimizes the sovereignty of the island against third parties. Basically against China because, although for all practical purposes half a century ago that Taiwan operates independently, it is not recognized by most countries, which tend their diplomatic ties with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Beijing believes that the island is part of its territory and pursues unification under the same model of government for which the Hong Kong people have been protesting in the streets for months. Earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed in a speech that the formula 'one country, two systems' is the only way to unify Taiwan and China. However, analysts warn that the crisis in Hong Kong shows the failure of the model. "The words of Xi aroused the concerns of Taiwanese, especially among young people. The latest surveys indicate that more than 70% of the population prefers the current democracy , with all its defects, to any other political system," says the analyst Carrie Chan, during a meeting in Taipei with experts from the 'think tank' Prospect Foundation, specialized in different areas of the island's international politics.

Concept war

The conflict is arduous from the beginning. It is armed with words and the parties cast their positions in history. After the victory of the Mao Zedong communists in the Chinese civil war (1927 to 1949), the Kuomintang Nationalist Government (KMT) of Chiang Kai-shek took refuge on the island, also baptized Republic of China, where he imposed an authoritarian regime and a martial law that would last almost 40 years, remembered as the era of White Terror. Since 1987 and after a decade-long transition, Taiwan has become one of the most curious cases in the world: a multi-party democracy trapped in Beijing's diplomacy.

Both parties have been facing a war of concepts and interpretations of what is really China for years. In 1992, a series of meetings took place on the continent between representatives of the KMT Government (which today leads the opposition) and the CCP. The result was the 1992 Consensus , which assumes that both parties agreed on the formula 'one country, two interpretations', that is, that they recognize the existence of only one China, but that each party considers its government to be the legitimate one . In fact, the Constitution of Taiwan states that its territory includes the continent, but the official policy of the island depends on which party holds power. Since 2016 he governs the Democratic Progressive Party (PPD), chaired by Tsai Ing-wen and pro-independence, which does not deny that the historical event occurred, but rejects that such consensus was reached.

The term 'one China' represents the basic pillar of continental policy towards the 'rebel province'. "Chinese news agencies are prohibited from referring to the different interpretations," Taiwanese Vice Minister of Continental Affairs, Chiu Chiu-cheng , assures this newspaper. "The status quo of the island is not immovable. Beijing insist that Taipei has to sit at the table accepting the Consensus of 92 as a precondition for dialogue; doing so would imply that we accept unification. They should be more pragmatic and access contacts without conditions, something in which the international community supports us, in order to establish a new consensus, "he demands.

Psychological warfare

The same fate as Hong Kong does not seem like an option. In fact, the formula 'one country, two systems' does not appear in any program of the presidential election candidates of January 2020. Jessie, 30, who works as a waitress, insists that unification is ruled out. "China says we are part of the continent, but it is not true. Taiwan is Taiwan . " It refers subtly to the option of convening an independence referendum, to which the current PPD Government tends, but that if carried out (prior constitutional reform) would mean the direct activation of the 2005 Anti-Secession Law, approved by the National People's Assembly of China , which legitimizes a military intervention if the island declares itself independent.

Stacy and Gwen, both 20, reside and study in the United Kingdom. Like most young Taiwanese people, they are also inclined "for the total independence of the island," although they see it "very difficult because China is still very strong." According to government data, 70% of citizens would be willing to go to war if China tries to annexation by force . International relations expert Tim Hung is convinced that the young people of his generation, under 40, "will become the pillars of this society and will be the ones who defend democracy in the future. At any cost."

In the last 20 years, Beijing has increased the frequency of its military exercises in the Strait of Formosa. For its part, Taipei has increased its Defense budget from 2 to 3% with the aim of developing its self-defense capabilities. There is a disparity of opinions as to whether the continent would reach annexation by force, but experts agree that avoiding a war between the 'two Chinese' passes through Washington . After her victory in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen received a personal call from Donald Trump to congratulate her and referred to her as president of Taiwan; an unprecedented gesture since 1979, the year in which the US moved its embassy from Taipei to Beijing. The strengthening of military cooperation and the sale of 2,000 million euros in armament to the island under the Trump Administration has provoked criticism from China, which describes it as an "attack on its sovereignty."

The Taiwanese government believes that the price to pay for Xi, both military and international, if it attacks a democracy would be too high. But he does not ignore that the art of war is based on deception and calls society "to be prevented" from attempts at Chinese interference. " It is a psychological warfare . They know that it is much easier and cheaper to take Taiwan and its economy using other means of attack that do not involve the military. They are applying cyberwarfare, the 'sharp power' (sharp power, a concept attributed to regimes authoritarian a war of misinformation to shape the public's perceptions with a political purpose) ", explains the think tank president, Tan Sun Chen.

Cyber ​​war

One of the generals of the People's Liberation Army came to ensure that "cyber threat is no less than the nuclear threat," analysts recall. They affirm that the Chinese objective with their cyberattacks is to divide society, sow the doubt about democratic rulers and that in January an Administration closer to Beijing wins, to the concept of 'one China'. Security expert Holmes Liao warns of how Russia and China have strengthened their military cooperation in recent years: "Taiwan is suffering from the same 'fake news' campaign by China as the one launched by Russia among its neighbors in the West. against the army of the 50 cents of Beijing, which creates false narratives that penetrate among the Chinese, such as that Washington, London or even Taipei have instigated protests in Hong Kong. "

The war of misinformation claimed a fatality in September 2018, after the spreading of false news that denounced the inaction of the Taiwanese authorities in the rescue of national victims of Typhoon Jebi in Japan. The information was based on a Youtuber of the continent and the flood of criticism was such that it led to the suicide of the Government representative in the city of Osaka . In a study, prepared by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy during the legislative elections in November last year, 78% of respondents said they knew before the elections this 'fake new' about the government's performance, but 50% He acknowledged that before casting his vote he did not know if it was true or false.

90% believed that disinformation campaigns have a negative effect on democracies, but assumed that their friends and family would be influenced. Paul, 45, and owner of his own business, also wants to continue living in democracy, but he is not 100% convinced that independence is the best option: "I am not so young. All young people are in favor of independence, people of my age prefer to maintain the status quo. " In addition, he is convinced that China will try to ingest in the elections with "an avalanche of 'fake news'". Consulted by this newspaper, official sources of the Chinese Government "deny the interference of China in the Taiwan elections , for cyberattack or information campaign" and reject "any word or action that harms the relations of the two parties."

"In China there is only one voice," says Holmes Liao, "fighting fake news one by one as it has been done so far is a game that nobody can win. We must change the strategy and contain malicious activities from the beginning, penetrate in the Chinese firewall to introduce real news into the mentality of citizens that delegitimize the regime. We are going to win this psychological war, not through armed conflict, but with a 'real news' campaign. "

A democracy vetoed in international organizations

Only 17 countries recognize Taiwan's sovereignty. For the rest of the world, relations with the Republic of China depend on the continent. The island is out of almost all international organizations and demands its active participation in WHO, the UN or Interpol . In some cases, their demands are based on a security issue, as in the case of the International Civil Aviation Organization , which sets the standards for airlines and is not allowed access. The island enjoys freedom of expression and of the press, ranking 42nd in the world ranking of Reporters Without Borders , however its journalists cannot cover the acts of international entities. Committed to the objectives of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development , the PDD Government has contributed with point ten: reduce inequalities, being the first country in Asia to legalize gay marriage.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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