Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted on Wednesday night that he was interested in acquiring nuclear weapons. He was addressing the nationalist public in his country, but the sudden talk of the Turkish populist president about the Turkish nuclear bomb has upset many of Turkey's allies and neighbors. "Many countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one, not two," Erdogan said at the 100th anniversary of Turkey's independence movement. We could not get it. This is something I cannot accept, and no developed country in the world has no nuclear weapons. ”
The Turkish embassy in Washington did not respond to questions from the National Interest magazine. "If Turkey wants to build a nuclear weapon, it can, but it will take several decades, and it won't happen overnight," said Joseph Cirincione of the Center for America Progress. But those comments immediately surprised many. "We are aware of this news. Turkey is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA, and has accepted the obligation not to possess weapons," a State Department official told National Interest magazine less than 48 hours later. And to abide by the safeguards of all peaceful nuclear activities. We pay great attention to Turkey's continued commitment to these commitments. ”
All countries except India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and South Sudan signed the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The embassy of neighboring Armenia to Turkey did not comment on the news. But the Armenian National Committee in America, an Armenian diaspora organization formed before the founding of the modern Republic of Armenia, had a comment against Erdogan. “We have a long history of dealing with Turkish aggression, as well as insulting Armenia's citizens and its heritage within Turkey,” said Aram Hambarian, the committee's executive director. “We therefore always hear about new weapons being added to the Turkish arsenal, which has been a major concern for Armenians throughout the country. the world".
But Azerbaijan, Turkey's close ally and rival to Armenia, has been more positive about Turkey's role in the region. “Turkey is a key ally in the region and contributes to its stability. We can say that Turkey plays an essential role for the stability and security of the region. As for the issue of nuclear weapons, I am not familiar with the context and content "The statements made about nuclear weapons, and we usually don't comment on personal statements."
Soner Cagabti, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Middle East Policy, believes Erdogan's comments were motivated by a “general sense that this unipolar world order imposed by the United States is falling apart, a view held by many officials in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Turkey, including Erdogan himself. ” “It seems that the issue is no more than talk at the moment, which is an indication of the current policy of ambiguity, given the feeling that the world system is collapsing, and Turkey may want to prove in this region that if it wants to become A nuclear state can do that. Turkey was very firm in its dealings with Greece and Greek Cyprus in the Mediterranean. "I think it's part of Erdogan's policy of sending messages to Greece."
Jagabti claimed that Greece was trying to change the balance of power by alliance with Israel, the only nuclear power in the region. But the Israeli embassy did not comment.
"He did not see an official response from the Greek government to Erdogan's remarks," Aris Papagiorgiou, security secretary at the Greek embassy, told National Interest magazine. But he said: «Every day there are new things come from Turkey, there are air violations that occur and exploration teams that go to the southeastern Mediterranean to Cyprus, in addition to some inflammatory statements from the Turkish government, regarding the issue of Greek territory, but these things happen Regularly".
Gagabte talked about Erdogan, citing his 2017 book, The New Sultan, and citing an excerpt: “You need issues to inflate your glory. It indicates that he is the only one who makes Turkey great. A nuclear weapon is an ideal way to amplify the Turkish ego, especially since we remember that the Turks are the sons of a great empire. ”
The SDF, which is close to the border with Turkey, believes that Erdogan's comments were addressed to the local Turkish public. "I think Erdogan is managing his internal problems by raising issues that appeal to Turkish nationalists," said Bassam Ishaq, a diplomat from the Syrian Democratic Council in Washington.
Turkey has fought an alliance of Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian fighters in northern Syria and is now pushing for a "safe zone", in cooperation with the United States, to limit the influence of the SDF. The Permanent Mission of the Syrian Arab Republic to the United Nations, which represents the Syrian government, did not respond to our request for comment, but Iran, a close ally of the Syrian government and another neighbor of Turkey, does not seem happy with Turkey getting the nuclear bomb.
"Iran's position on nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction is clear: Iran rejects all nuclear weapons, because it has no place," Ali Reza Meriusseven, the media official of Iran's mission to the United Nations, wrote in an email to the National Interest magazine. "In our defense belief, it also opposes the religious belief of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution."
The United States and others have accused Iran of working to build a nuclear weapon. In 2015, Iran agreed to reduce the amount of enriched uranium by 98%, open its research facilities to IAEA inspectors, and, in return, abolish economic sanctions. But the Trump administration pulled out of the deal and put more pressure on Iran, prompting it to re-enrich uranium.
Gagapti believes that the failure of the nuclear deal with Iran has prompted Turkey to "adopt a policy of ambiguity, deliberately on nuclear weapons."
According to Cirincione, NPT experts are concerned that a nuclear Iran could prompt other countries to seek the bomb, including Turkey. Cirincione says that Turkey has the "most sophisticated base, the educated people with the engineering capability". "The difficulty is not the bomb itself. The bomb's designs were made 75 years ago, but in the materials placed inside the bomb. "The proper facilities to make nuclear fuel for these bombs cost a lot of billions and years of hard work."
Matthew Beattie is a reporter on national security at the National Interest magazine.
Two ways Ankara has the nuclear bomb
Turkey has two short paths to obtaining a nuclear bomb: the first is by buying nuclear fuel (or perhaps buying a full weapon) from a nuclear Pakistan, which has close ties with Turkey. "If Pakistan wants to deploy nuclear weapons, and Turkey wants to get weapons, they can agree on that," Jagabti said. The second, the most dangerous and disturbing route, is for Turkey to steal one of the hydrogen bombs at the Anglerik air base in southeast Turkey. "It is a remnant of the Cold War," Sirincione said. It is seen as a psychological value, as its physical presence is a show of deterrence guarantees the United States has provided to its NATO allies. ”
"As a member of NATO, Turkey is covered by Article 5, on collective defense, which supports Turkey's defense and security," a State Department source told National Interstate. The source added: «You can imagine if Turkey attacked the US base, this is dangerous, and will not go unpunished, and therefore there are many deterrent measures to prevent this, but there was a call to do so in the past. During a failed coup attempt in 2016 by a number of Turkish army commanders, a number of rebel officers seized control of the Turkish garrison at the Anglerik base, prompting the Turkish authorities to cut off electricity to the base and besiege it and cut any contact with it abroad. "In fact, this base is an unreasonable place to store American nuclear bombs."
Even if the Turks were able to seize some of the bombs, they are equipped with a device called a movement license bundle, a lock designed to keep the bomb under US control, he said, adding: "We will not use these bombs stored in Turkey, but "Erdogan could do that."