By RFIPosted on 15-09-2019Modified on 15-09-2019 at 00:32

Seven million Tunisians are called to the polls this Sunday, September 15 to elect a new president. Cradle of the Arab Spring in 2014, Tunisia is one of the few countries to experience some political stability. This election is full of uncertainties.

This is the second free presidential election organized in the country since 2014. But this time, it is far from the craze that had aroused the Arab Spring. The vote seems uncertain. Due in particular to the large number of candidates . And especially the breakup of political families: each stream has several rival candidates.

In 2014, the presidential election was marked by a very strong divide between Islamists and modernists . This time, the election is played on the economic and social register. With the entry on the scene, candidates "anti-system", trying to seduce Tunisians who feel neglected by the public authorities.

A fragmented political offer

The political scene has indeed been overthrown by the appearance of a populism born of the disappointment engendered by the successive powers. They have been unable to deliver on their economic promises to boost employment and bring down inflation. The deterioration of the living conditions of Tunisian women has eroded confidence in the traditional political class.

So the twelve candidates who have been ministers are likely to face a vote of rejection. The participation of young voters will be crucial as they declare themselves hostile to candidates from traditional parties. While the Islamist-inspired party Ennahdha seems the only one to be able to count on a disciplined electoral reservoir, its popularity has dropped further.

Newcomers to the top of the political poster could reap the benefits of a nagging popular anger. The democratic development of post-revolutionary Tunisia now seems, like other countries in the world, through the emergence of populist candidates, far from traditional divides between conservatives and modernists.

The stake of participation

The other source of uncertainty comes from these disoriented voters. Because if the ISIE, the independent superior body for the elections, managed to register 1.454 million new voters on the electoral roll, will these people go to vote?

In order to integrate as many people into the electoral roll, the ISIE had to carry out an awareness campaign for three months. Three months to go shopping malls, public squares, beaches, and cafes ... Result: many women could be added to the file. Young people now represent 63% of the electorate.

It is not certain, however, that this translates into the participation rate. For the political scientist Larbi Chouika, we must distinguish two things: the census operation on the one hand, and the vote on the other. " The file had never been updated since the revolution of 2011, so this operation was intended to catch up, " relativize this analyst.

As the first victims of the social crisis affecting the country, many young people and the working classes express their rejection of policies. " Will they vote? Wonders the researcher Hamadi Redissi. " The failure of social policies could have an impact on voter turnout ".

Finally, the complexity of this election is linked to the totally upset electoral calendar. Following the death in July of President Beji Caid Essebsi , the presidential election was anticipated. It was supposed to be held in December, after the legislative elections of October 6th. The staffs of the political parties had to hastily nominate a candidate for the presidential election, the outcome of which should redraw the political chessboard.

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