Paris (AFP)
The second major electoral event of the Macron era, the municipal elections of March 2020 will be a test of the ability of macronistes to establish themselves locally and the resistance of outgoing mayors.
On March 15 and 22, the French will elect more than 500,000 municipal councilors who will then designate the mayors of some 34,970 communes - less than 1,000 of which have 10,000 inhabitants or more.
After months of tensions with the executive, the mayors returned to the center of the game with the big debate organized to get out of the crisis of "yellow vests".
Six months before the vote, if some have already made known their ambitions, as in Paris, Bordeaux or Lyon, the time is still often in the field discussions to make alliances and compose lists in a political landscape turned upside down.
-The big cities in the scale-
As often, the party that wins in Paris is likely to be the winner of the vote. In a capital that has placed Emmanuel Macron and LREM in the lead since 2017, outgoing PS mayor PS Anne Hidalgo should try to defend its seat against a presidential party divided between Benjamin Griveaux, candidate officially invested, and the dissident Cédric Villani, without counting the ecologists of EELV and several centrist outsiders.
In Bordeaux and Marseille, the succession of the historic mayors, Alain Juppé, left in March to the Constitutional Council, and Jean-Claude Gaudin, who does not represent himself, is at stake. And the campaign looks harsh in Lille, Lyon, Nice or Toulouse, where the outgoing Martine Aubry, Gerard Collomb, Christian Estrosi and Jean-Luc Moudenc will have to scrape to keep their armchairs.
- Outgoing bonus-
Beyond the big agglomerations, the election will be played out in the 3,600 small and medium towns and the 31,000 communes of less than 3,000 inhabitants. The "outgoing bonus" is high in municipal and 75% of French consider, according to CEVIPOF, that their mayor has done a good job during his term.
With the decline of the traditional parties and the split right-left, the ballot should also see lists "unlabeled", for the defense of only local interests, multiply.
-Placing or saving furniture-
For LREM, the challenge will be to set up in the territories. As much as the number of cities they manage to win, the result of macronistes will appreciate that of the advisers they have elected. With another poll in the viewfinder, that of senatorial for now scheduled in October 2020 - even if the draft organic law on institutions provides for postponement of one year, since the electoral body choosing senators is composed to 95% of delegates from municipal councils.
If Emmanuel Macron and his Prime Minister Edouard Philippe are very involved in the preparation of the elections, LREM remains pragmatic and cautious about its objectives.
For Republicans, it will be to preserve the maximum of nearly 70 cities of more than 30,000 inhabitants taken to the left in 2014. But after its failure to the European, LR risk nothing less than explode and see many of its elected to ally with LREM, and see others flock to the National Gathering.
PS, the vote will be that of survival. Either the socialists will manage to retain their fiefs, Paris, Lille, Rennes, Nantes ..., and their territorial anchorage, or they will be reduced to the role of suppletives. The danger will come from the ecologists of EELV, their traditional allies on the left, who as in Paris now claim "leadership" after their success in Europe (13.5%).
With its 23.3% in May, the RN targets dozens of cities, including Perpignan, and want to siphon the electorate right. Mistreated on the contrary to European, France insubordinates (LFI) tries for its part to gather on the left. Lists claiming "yellow vests" should also see the light of day.
-Cote of love and blues of the mayors-
According to a survey by CEVIPOF (Sciences-Po), mayors remain by far the most trusted French (71%). But the difficulties to exercise a more and more demanding mandate, incivilities, the legal complexity of the function, the penal responsibilities push many elected of small communes to give up and not to represent themselves.
"There is a terrible paradox: the love rating of mayors remains strong, but there are also more and more cases of threats to which elected officials are confronted, often verbal threats, sometimes anonymous letters, situations that "enveniment", summarizes Christophe Bouillon, president of the Association of Small Towns of France (APVF).
According to a note from the Ministry of Interior revealed by the JDD, 361 mayors and deputies were victims of "deliberate attacks on their physical integrity" in 2018, 9% more than the previous year. A degradation, which with the lack of means, the load of work, feeds the resignation of the elected ones.
© 2019 AFP