“Form a new world order”: how a change in Trump's national security adviser will affect US policy
After the resignation of John Bolton from the post of Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security, the White House is considering several candidates for this position. According to the American media, this also includes Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who may become the second politician in history to combine these two posts. The first in the mid-70s was Henry Kissinger. Experts note that all prospective candidates for Bolton’s place are right-wing and loyal to the presidential administration. According to analysts, now Trump will need a man who can teach him to “keep the mark even with a bad game” on the eve of the 2020 elections. In addition, the resignation of Bolton will lead to a softening of the US foreign policy towards Russia, Iran and Venezuela, experts say.
Two days after Donald Trump dismissed his National Security Advisor John Bolton, the media continues to debate who can take this important post. Today, CNN, citing its sources, said that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is among the candidates. In the event of a possible appointment, he will become the second person in history combining the posts of the head of the State Department and the presidential adviser on national security. The first in the mid-70s was Henry Kissinger, who held both of these posts for more than two years.
Earlier, the US president said that the White House is considering at least five candidates for the position of assistant to the head of state for national security, and Bolton’s successor should be officially announced in a few days.
“There are five people who would really like to get this job. Even more would not mind. But there are five people of very high, in my opinion, qualifications that I have recognized over the past three years. We will announce the appointment next week. We have several very experienced candidates in mind, ”the White House press service quoted Trump as saying.
A number of US media made their predictions as to who might take the post of adviser to the president on national security. According to CNN, the candidacy of the State Department’s special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, former Bolton’s first deputy, retired major general Ricky Weddell, as well as US special envoy for the DPRK and Russian specialist Stephen Bigan, is being considered for this place. In addition, the list of possible candidates includes National Security Specialist at the White House Office Rob Blair, National Security Advisor to Vice President Keith Kellogg, US Ambassadors to Germany Richard Grenell and the Netherlands Pete Hoxtra, retired general Jack Keane and former head of the National Council White House Security Fred Fitz.
The New York Times also presented its list. The publication also names the candidatures of Hook, Bigan, Grenell and adds to them the appointed and. about. National Security Advisor Charlie Kapperman, Trump's Senior Advisor Jared Kushner, and retired US Army Colonel Douglas McGregor.
Recall that the US president, as usual, announced the resignation of John Bolton on his Twitter page: “Last night I informed John Bolton that his services are no longer needed in the White House. "I strongly disagree with many of his proposals, like others in the administration, and therefore I asked John to resign."
I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House. I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration, and therefore ....- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2019
The head of the White House added that he will announce the name of the new national security adviser next week. It is worth noting that John Bolton himself claims that the initiative to resign belonged to him.
List of candidates
Commenting on the current situation, experts note that the first five figures on the list presented by CNN have the most chances to take the presidential adviser position. The first among the candidates for the place of John Bolton is the US Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook. According to sources, he not only wants to take this post, but also has serious authority in the White House.
- US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook
- © Liu Jie / Xinhua
“An informed source claims that Hook is interested in this position and is conducting a campaign in support of his candidacy. Hook has taken up a position in the State Department under Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and remains a key member of the team under Mike Pompeo. Recently, he traveled to the Middle East with senior adviser and president-in-law Jared Kushner. According to another source, Hook has established himself in the White House, ”CNN analysts say.
To compete with Brian Hook can retired Major General of the US Armed Forces Ricky Waddell, who worked for about a year as Deputy Assistant Trump for National Security Herbert McMaster.
The three main contenders closes the US special envoy for the DPRK Stephen Bigan. His candidacy was also considered earlier in the White House for the post of American ambassador to Russia. According to sources, he has a good relationship with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and also impressed Trump during their conversations about the DPRK.
At the same time, Bigan, unlike Bolton, advocates a diplomatic settlement of the North Korean issue.
"The President (USA. - RT ) made it clear that he was not happy with short-range missiles, but that would not interfere with our efforts to diplomatically resolve the very problems that we are talking about," The New York Times quoted the policy as saying.
Robert Blair (National Security Advisor, Acting Chief of Staff of the White House Mick Mulvaney) and US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell are also considered serious candidates for the vacant post. Moreover, if the chances of the first are increased by the support of Mulvaney, then Grenell, as a supporter of Bolton, can only rely on the assessment of his diplomatic skills, which, according to rumors, are very highly valued in the White House.
According to experts interviewed by RT, a new person as assistant to the president of the United States on national security will need to take into account the shortcomings in the work of his predecessor. Since shortly after the resignation of John Bolton, the head of the White House said that he had made a number of major mistakes.
“On his part, it was a big mistake to talk about the Libyan scenario in relation to Kim Jong-un. It was not worth making such a statement. You just remember what happened to Gaddafi. It was not worth it to do. For us, this was a step back, ”said Trump.
The president added that Bolton did not get along with some of the "extremely valuable" members of the administration, and that their positions in the Venezuelan crisis diverged significantly. According to Trump, the ex-adviser on this issue "went beyond all limits."
In an interview with RT, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, Vladimir Bruter, expressed the opinion that there are no fundamental differences between the candidates represented by the American media, since they all hold extreme right-wing views.
“These people are more systematic in their views than Bolton. They will copy the policy coming from the White House and coordinate it with the State Department. There is no question of any independence in approaches to solving foreign policy problems, ”the expert noted, adding that candidates will be required to have an approach focused on the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
- US President Donald Trump
- © Saul Loeb / AFP
A similar position is shared by corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Sergey Sudakov. According to him, the head of the White House needs a “point specialist” who would help him appear before the voters in a positive light.
“Trump loves to choose people as his team heart and soul, but now he will need to make a rational choice. The president will not choose people specializing only in security, since they are not a kind of deficit. The head of the White House now needs a technical figure who would first of all attract the electorate, ”explained the interlocutor of RT.
Such an approach to the selection of candidates can be chosen, since Bolton’s actions as the presidential adviser on national security led to the fact that Trump "has ceased to look like a triumph and a winner," Sudakov believes.
“It seemed like Trump was scared of the Taliban, North Korea. And this did not add to his points in the election race. Therefore, now he needs a man who will teach him to keep his mark even in case of a bad game, ”the analyst noted.
At the same time, Sudakov believes that it would be wrong to appoint a military man to this post, despite the fact that the head of the White House often prefers security officials.
“Trump’s relations with the Pentagon are already good - most officers support the American leader,” the expert said.
Sudakov also added that the candidacy of the US ambassador to Germany as an adviser on national security would not bring any positive results to the head of the White House in foreign policy.
“The European direction is understandable for Washington - Richard Grenell will not be able to invent anything new here,” the analyst said.
Moreover, if Trump puts Brian Hook in place of Bolton, this will mean that Washington is changing its course in relation to Iranian issues and intends to "eliminate the threat of a major war," Sudakov believes.
“Iran is an urgent problem for the United States, so a person who is well versed in this topic would be useful to Trump. However, for the conclusion of a new deal with Tehran, the American president does not have to make an Iranian specialist with his right hand, he can put him, for example, on a freelance council, ”the expert stated.
According to him, it would be logical to choose a specialist who "understands Russia" for the position of adviser to the US president on national security, since there are very few such professionals on the team of the American president.
“This figure could be Stephen Bigan. His appointment would show voters that Trump is not afraid of further investigations by the Democrats, he is ready to turn towards Russia and form a new world order, ”the analyst emphasized.
- Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
- © Ivan Alvarado / Reuters
According to analysts, Bolton’s resignation is likely to lead to a softening of the US foreign policy towards Russia, Iran and, above all, Venezuela. This is also evidenced by the list of possible candidates for the post of Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security.
“Washington’s blitz krieg in Venezuela failed, Bolton’s concept, which implies an instant invasion of US special forces on the territory of the Bolivarian Republic, also failed. Therefore, the US strategic plan for Venezuela will be changed and become more consensus, ”Sudakov said.
The expert believes that Washington will pursue a more loyal policy in relation to Iran.
“The United States will try to agree with Tehran by offering him a full agreement. In the US, they recognize this need and recognize the failure of the confrontation with Iran, ”the analyst said.
In addition, as noted by Sudakov, the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3) will be a key issue that will need to be addressed by the new Assistant to the US President for National Security.
“Bolton assured that it is necessary now to break this agreement. However, Washington may work out a compromise, ”suggested the source, who also did not rule out that the arrival of the new US Assistant to the US President for National Security could initiate a change in the White House’s policy towards Russia.
“Attitude towards Moscow will change step by step. This direction will be a priority for the White House, since the rapprochement between Russia and India and China, the supply of Russian S-400s, Su-35 and Su-57 planes to the United States suggests that Washington has a serious competitor that you can’t be with all the time in confrontation and build a dialogue on ultimatums, ”the analyst summed up.