“Could not impose their own rules of the game”: Trump postponed the increase in duties on Chinese goods for two weeks

The United States postponed the increase in duties on Chinese goods from October 1 to the 15th. This was written by US President Donald Trump on his Twitter. He explained his decision with the request of Vice Premier of the State Council of the PRC Liu He.

“At the request of Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He and in connection with the fact that the People’s Republic of China will celebrate the 70th anniversary of its founding on October 1, as a gesture of goodwill, we decided to transfer the introduction of duties on goods worth $ 250 billion (from 25 to 30 %) from October 1 to October 15, ”Trump said in a statement.

China welcomed this decision, said Gao Feng, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

"The Chinese side welcomes the gesture of goodwill in the United States," RIA Novosti quoted Gao Feng as saying. “We hope that the parties will move towards each other and create favorable conditions for consultations.”

A spokesman for the agency also said that Chinese enterprises began asking for prices to buy agricultural products from the US, "including soybeans and pork."

And on September 11, it became known that Beijing will remove additional duties on 16 items of American goods. Among them are lubricating oil and fat, formwork lubricant, feed serum and others. The decision will enter into force on September 17. According to the Global Times, the PRC authorities intend to do this “as a goodwill gesture” before negotiating a new deal.

In total, 12 rounds of negotiations between the countries have already passed. In early September, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that the 13th meeting would be held in Washington in early October.

“Previously, the parties maintained close contacts with each other. Working groups from mid-September will begin to hold detailed discussions with each other, prepare the necessary conditions for holding a high-level meeting, ”the ministry said in a statement.

According to experts, these concessions by both the Chinese and American administrations may indicate a more constructive position of the parties before the negotiations. So, a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Sergei Sudakov, in a conversation with RT suggested that the parties reached consensus.

“Trump has already created a certain negotiating position, he scared the Chinese, he thinks, and now there should be calm after the storm. I believe that the next stage will be normal negotiations. Of course, there will be no abolition of duties, but parity in this trade confrontation will come to a consensus, ”he said.

According to Sudakov, the policy of US pressure on China did not work, and Washington "could not impose its own rules of the game."

“Strike American Wallets”

Recall that the trade confrontation between the United States and China began in early 2018. Trump claims that a system unfair for Washington has developed between the countries - significantly more Chinese goods are imported into the United States than American - into China.

To “fix” the situation, Trump began to introduce import duties on Chinese goods. Beijing condemned the actions of the US administration and began to impose retaliatory duties. The head of the White House also calls on American companies to leave China and return production to the United States.

Reuters, citing the US Federal Reserve Service (FRS), said that a trade war would lead to a loss of the world economy of $ 850 billion at the beginning of next year, and only the American side would lose about $ 200 billion. According to experts from the Fed, trade policy uncertainty “rose to a level unprecedented since the 1970s. ”

It is economic losses that push Trump to change the tactics of pressure and return to negotiations, Sudakov believes. He noted that the economic component is very important for the American voter, and the increase in prices provoked by duties causes displeasure. The presidential election in which Trump intends to be re-elected will be held in 2020.

“Trump perfectly understands that now we need to come up with a format to get out of this harsh war,” the expert explained. “He needs, on the one hand, to improve America’s economic situation, but on the other hand, he needs to think about ordinary citizens ... Because duties are primarily a very significant blow to the wallets of ordinary Americans.”

However, Professor of the Department of Comparative Political Science of the RUDN University, Yuri Pochta, believes that this conflict may last until the end of Trump's presidential term. In an interview with RT, the expert noted that the US administration will not put up with Beijing's economic independence, however, China also has significant resources for this confrontation.

“The part of the American elite that Trump represents is not going to come to terms with China and will try to force it to serve US interests. Therefore, I think this is a long game with stronger nerves and organizational resources. China is more monolithic compared to the American elite. So I think that all this will continue while Trump will be in power, ”he stated.