Washington (AFP)

Has the IMF gone astray in Argentina, a country that has seen several rescue programs run by the Washington-based institution? The worsening crisis in the third Latin American economy is fueling criticism of the Fund.

The International Monetary Fund, which has granted Argentina a loan of 57 billion dollars in exchange for a program of significant budget adjustments, is in the eye of the storm since the defeat inflicted on President Mauricio Macri during the primary elections of August 11th. A snub that casts doubt on the continuity of this program, in an already dark context of recession and increasing poverty.

Mr. Macri appealed to the IMF following a monetary crisis in April 2018. But the agreed adjustments did not stabilize the economy, which has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (54.4% for Last 12 months), a drop in consumption, closures of businesses and an increase in poverty (32% in 2018) and unemployment (10.1% this year).

"All the people involved would have really, really had to be more discriminating," said Nobel economist Paul Krugman on Twitter, accusing Macri of not having used some measures for fear of their political cost .

"Macri did not want or could not take the bull by the horns," said the economist, lamenting the increase in external debt, passed according to official figures of 52.6% of GDP in 2015 at 88.5% in 2019.

"What is striking (...) is that it is incredibly close to the scenario of 1998-2001: no convertibility law, but similar policy mistakes and a similar endorsement by the IMF to these errors," he started.

- tarnished image -

Other experts said they were not surprised by the position of the IMF.

"The decision to grant Argentina a loan of this magnitude has been much more political than technical, the fund is like that, it has always been like that," Monica de Bolle, an IMF economist, told AFP. the 2002 crisis in Uruguay and Argentina.

For Ms. de Bolle, currently a researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Mr. Macri's "gradual" strategy was "enormously risky", and the Fund knew it.

"The image of the IMF suffered from this excess of optimism," she said.

Jayati Ghosh, a professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, spoke of "the long history of the Fund in terms of policy mistakes".

For his part, Claudio Loser, an Argentine economist who was a former top executive of the IMF, downplayed the Fund's responsibility. For him, Mr. Macri made mistakes, especially at the beginning of his government, and should have appealed to the IMF not in 2018 but at the end of 2017.

The IMF, he argues, is "clearly not" guilty of this new crisis in Argentina.

Regarding the amount of the loan, "I think it was too much, but the management of the IMF wanted to achieve great success (...) Unfortunately, more than the IMF, it was the Argentineans who failed, because they 'never accept the idea that adjustments are inevitable and that they take time,' he told AFP.

- "Enamored" of Macri -

For Benjamin Gedan, director of the Wilson Center's Argentina program, "some of Macri's mistakes were predictable, like borrowing so heavily and in dollars." But the use of "deeper and faster" cuts could have triggered a political crisis.

"The IMF seems to have turned a blind eye to doubts about Argentina's ability to pay its debts, because key members of the board, including the United States, have embraced Macri," he said. -t it.

Macri, who has come to power promising to change the protectionist policies of his predecessor Cristina Kirchner (2007-2015), has won the confidence of the IMF, including the representative of US President Donald Trump, who is close to the Argentine head of state. , but also of its director Christine Lagarde.

Lagarde, who is leaving the IMF to chair the European Central Bank, admitted in June that the Fund had "underestimated" the "incredibly complicated" situation in Argentina, citing the difficulty of curbing galloping inflation.

Asked by AFP, an IMF spokesman simply said that the purpose of the Fund "had been and remained to help Argentina during this difficult period."

© 2019 AFP