The new Brussels brings economic oxygen to Pedro Sánchez

"You will guarantee the application of the Stability and Growth Pact using all the flexibility allowed by the rules." The so-called mission letter sent by the elected president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen , to her new Commissioner for Economic Affairs, the Italian Paolo Gentiloni , leaves no doubt: the euro rules against the deficit are relaxed and the debt. Von der Leyen thus fulfills its commitment to the European socialists, who conditioned their vote last July to that the German assumed a softening of austerity. And he also accepts to place in the position of guardian of the chicken coop of the deficit nothing less than an Italian socialist fox who himself asked for flexibility in spending when he was prime minister between 2016 and 2018 .

The appointment of Gentiloni in substitution of the already flexible French socialist Pierre Moscovici is a message of fiscal softening for all, which especially benefits in the South the new Italian Government and Emmanuel Macron , in full budgetary lack of control for the yellow vests and thus achieves a new both in the new European Commission. For the purposes of Spain, it is also an economic oxygen balloon for the current president of the acting Government, Pedro Sánchez . The distribution of portfolios does not leave the PSOE leader politically well for not getting Josep Borrell all the competitions he had announced in July - when negotiating in Brussels you have to tie up before speaking - but you receive greater relief than planned for your plan economic.

With Gentiloni now monitoring compliance with the euro rules, Sanchez has already made it easier to make expense concessions to Podemos, if there are still negotiation possibilities to be invested. And in case of new elections, the leader of the PSOE will have more room for his electoral program and, if the polls are fulfilled, more budget bag to get parliamentary support in his eventual new attempt at investiture at the end of the year.

The question is whether it is a good idea that the face of the euro is from now on the relaxed politician and journalist Gentiloni. On the one hand, it is true that the application of the euro rules during the crisis demanding discipline from the countries of the South without accompanying this policy with a European plan to stimulate or mutualize debt has been an excess and an error recognized by the own President of the outgoing European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker . But, on the other, it can be counterproductive that investors around the world believe that the rules of a currency still as young as the euro is going to be wet paper. For fear of this last danger - which coincides with the instability of Brexit - Von der Leyen made a point yesterday. He stressed that Gentiloni 's responsibility to monitor the budgets of the member states will be shared with the re-elected and reinforced vice president , the Latvian conservative Valdis Dombrovskis . He was a strong supporter of fineing Spain in 2016 when the then president, Mariano Rajoy , did not take "effective measures" to respect the European Stability Pact and is perceived in the financial community as the clearest defender of budgetary orthodoxy in Brussels. In addition, the president-elect, loyal to Angela Merkel , recalled that the decisions "are collegial", not only of Gentiloni.

In any case, the Italian designation coincides with another oxygen balloon for the countries of the South in general and Sanchez's plans, in particular: the imminent inauguration of Christine Lagarde as the new president of the European Central Bank. It is expected that Lagarde will follow Mario Draghi's soft policy and even encourage stimulus measures to reinforce the ECB's umbrella for countries that, like Spain, have more economic imbalances and more difficulty attracting investors themselves. The Spanish Treasury needs to offer increasingly low interest to place its bonds since the French designation is known. The Lagarde-Gentiloni duo shows how the Eurozone moves into a new phase of relaxation. But it would be a mistake for the Spanish Government to ignore them because although the European Commission and the ECB are more flexible, the markets will not be if a new financial crisis breaks out and surprises Spain with a high level of debt and aggravated deceleration.

As for the distribution of the rest of the Brussels economic apparatus, Margrethe Vestager, manages to repeat at the forefront of Competition and emerges that the portfolio of Climate Change and Energy that Miguel Arias Cañete played until now was important, because it is divided between several commissioners. Borrell must reconcile his position full of trips abroad with being attentive to everything that is cooked internally in the new European Commission.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• European Comission
• Spain
• European Central Bank
• PSOE
• Pedro Sanchez
• Pierre Moscovici
• Valdis Dombrovskis
• Miguel Arias Cañete
• We can
• Mario Draghi
• Mariano Rajoy
• Josep Borrell
• Energy
• Emmanuel Macron
• Christine Lagarde
• Angela Merkel
• TV

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