Media Bart: Has the UAE agenda come to an end after the Battle of Aden?

What is happening in Aden is not just a link in the war between Yemenis, but a testament to the fact that the anti-Houthi camp has cracked, with the weakening of the legitimacy of Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, and enabling the Houthis to strengthen their grip on the areas where they are located They control it, and the UAE is nearing its dream of dismantling Yemen and dominating its south.

The article's author, Jean-Pierre Perrin, said that a gap between UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is leading the war in Yemen, has emerged in recent months and has begun to widen slowly, although the alliance between them is still fixed, and the basis of this gap that The UAE realized that winning the war was not possible, while Saudi Arabia wanted to pursue it at all costs.

A diplomat likens the current situation between the two men who support forces that stand up to the open battle in Aden, with "marriage facing problems." Mohammed bin Salman supports President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi's forces, while Mohammed bin Zayed supports the separatist forces that are Hadi's enemy. .

Breaking the unity of Yemen
However, the writer does not believe that the dissolution of the alliance between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has come, citing the researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies Victoria Katharina Sawyer, that it is unlikely to break up the alliance between the two countries because it will not benefit either of them in the long run, The UAE is in a stronger position because Saudi Arabia needs its military contribution.

He warned that the UAE entered the war and the coalition with a different agenda from the Saudi agenda that wants to confront Iran and emphasize that it is the only regional power in the region.

He explained that the issue for the UAE is to break the Yemeni unity and return to the situation that prevailed before the reunification of the north and south in 1990, in order to create a state in the south under its custody to serve a broader agenda.

Abu Dhabi then sent ground troops to the south and publicly supported the separatist forces that joined the coalition when it feared the Houthis would seize the entire country and are now fighting to restore the independence of southern Yemen and its recognition by the international community.

The writer explained that the interests of the separatists at present are consistent with the interests of Abu Dhabi, reviewing the researcher at the French Institute for Scientific Research Marc Laverne that the UAE supports the independence of southern Yemen to make it under its tutelage, as part of a strategy to establish a direct presence on the sea routes from the Gulf to the Red Sea .

Emirati Agenda
"Abu Dhabi has two main objectives in Yemen: the control of Yemeni ports and the reduction of the influence of Islah on its list of terrorist organizations. It supports separatists in the south to serve these goals," said researcher Catherine Sawyer.

For this purpose, the UAE deployed its army in 2018 in the Yemeni island of Socotra, in violation of international law, and occupied the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, the gate of the Red Sea, as the writer says - and at the same time took over the African coast, in the ports of Somaliland, Eritrea, Sudan, and even Somalia.

With the new battle of Aden, the writer believes that a second front was opened in Yemen, which means the start of a civil war within the existing civil war, which does not belong to Aden alone, but includes the provinces of the former South Yemen, especially Abyan and Shabwa, after the government forces counter-attack on The unexpected and restored part of the city includes the presidential palace and claimed to have won.

However, it will not be easy to expel the rebels, says Marc Chacall, vice-president of MSF in Yemen. "The fighting continues, albeit with less intensity, but the slightest spark can ignite everything," he said. Armed and do not know what services are working, amid chaos. "

The author reviewed the report issued by the United Nations experts in Yemen on the "multiple war crimes" committed by all parties, especially the UAE and the forces under its control to highlight the torture, rape and killing of political opponents in secret prisons of Ahmed and Brega and many other undeclared detention centers.

Towards the disintegration of Yemen?
Despite all this, Katharina Sawir says it is "premature to talk about the disintegration of Yemen and the emergence of the former South Yemen," arguing that it would require the consent of key regional and international actors. Saudi Arabia, for example, has no interest in dividing Yemen, because it could strengthen the Houthis' strength on its borders. Nor will the international community accept it for fear of the spread of extremist forces in this region.

But researchers such as Mark Chakal say negotiations have already begun between separatists and Houthis to split Yemen and avoid direct confrontation, especially as the anti-Houthi camp has exploded.

The United States has already begun talks with the Houthi rebels "to try to find a mutually acceptable negotiated solution to the conflict," said Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, which could amount to recognition of the Houthi movement.