Queen Elizabeth II approved the bill, which obliges the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to ask the European Union for another delay in Brexit if he fails to agree with Brussels on the conditions for the country's exit from the EU.
Thus, the UK exit from the EU without an agreement, or the so-called “hard” brexit that Johnson threatened to hold, can now not take place.
Johnson previously confirmed his cabinet’s commitment to withdraw Britain from the EU on October 31, with or without a deal, despite parliament’s actions. He stated this at a meeting with the Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Vardakar, which took place on September 9.
Johnson held this meeting, since the border issue with Ireland is one of the main reasons why the British Parliament cannot solve the problem of Brexit.
During a joint press conference with the head of Ireland, Johnson added that an agreement with the EU could be reached by October 18.
The deadline for October 17-18 is due to the fact that the next summit of the European Council will take place on these dates. For London, this will be the last opportunity to reach new agreements with the EU on Britain’s withdrawal from the union.
According to the law approved by Queen Elizabeth II, if no compromises are reached, Johnson will be required to request a new delay for Brexit for a period of three months - until January 31, 2020.
This does not mean that Queen Elizabeth II vetoed Brexit itself, Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the department of social and political studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with RT.
“If a decision were made to repeal Brexit or a new referendum, then the Queen would say something special. However, such a situation is unlikely, because most Britons voted to leave the EU, ”the political scientist said.
According to the professor of Moscow State University named after MV Lomonosov Andrei Manoilo, Johnson’s statements about the inevitability of a “hard” brexitis should be skeptical.
“By making such statements, Johnson is more noisy than realistically oriented in the situation. He overestimates his abilities to realize what he is talking about, ”the expert noted.
Bypassing the Queen
Recall that last week the situation with Brexit again came to a standstill due to the actions of the British Parliament - members of the House of Commons opposed the country's exit from the European Union without an agreement, as Johnson wants, but at the same time they refuse to accept the agreement with Brussels in its current form.
- Brexit Demonstration
- © Peter Nicholls / Reuters
Great Britain was supposed to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. But the government of Theresa May was not able to approve the draft agreement with the EU in the chamber. As a result, Brussels gave London a respite, and May resigned.
Johnson, who has repeatedly stated that Brexit will take place on October 31 despite an agreement, September 3 suffered a major defeat in parliament. Due to the transfer of one of the deputies to the opposition camp, Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party lost the parliamentary majority.
After that, parliamentarians were able to enact a law prohibiting a “hard” brexit, and blocked the proposal of Boris Johnson on early elections, which could change the balance of power in the House of Commons.
Boris Johnson said that he would not ask for a postponement, however, it is not clear how he plans to get around the new bill. Johnson’s intention to ignore the decision of Parliament was confirmed in his office.
“We intend to thwart any attempts to further delay brexitis. The “Defeat Bill” (as conservatives call the ban on withdrawal without an agreement. - RT ) will come into force only if the EU offers us another delay. After everyone becomes aware of our plans, it is likely that an extension will not be offered. And if it does, then we will try to sabotage it, ”one of the cabinet members anonymously told The Telegraph.
In Europe itself, the idea of giving Britain a new deferment was reacted negatively. In particular, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that European leaders are not going to grant a reprieve to the British "every three months."
“The British say they want to offer alternative solutions without a deal, but we don’t see them, so the answer is no, we’re not going to do this every three months,” he said on the air of Radio Europe 1.
He noted that the next delay in brexitis "in the current conditions" is unacceptable.
Britain now has one way out - to extend negotiations until January 31, but this is a deadlock because both sides have clearly defined their positions on this issue, said Vladimir Schweitzer.
Brussels is unlikely to enter into new negotiations, because the EU is already suffering some losses due to the suspended situation, while London, in turn, is suffering losses, Andrei Manoilo said in an interview with RT.
“The previous mechanisms that worked during the integration no longer work. The British economy also suffers. In connection with Brexit, the British business switched to short-term agreements with European partners, because as soon as Great Britain leaves the EU, relations will break. Now the UK business does not know in what mode it should work. The country hovered on the way to brexit exactly half, ”explained Manoilo.
Parliament stop and elections
However, Johnson managed to win back his positions a little - from September 10, the work of the British Parliament will be suspended until October 14. This was reported in the office of the prime minister.
- Labor leader Jeremy Corbin
- © Yves Herman / Reuters
Before this stop, the deputies have to decide whether new parliamentary elections will be held in the country.
Earlier, this proposal was blocked by the leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin - he became the first opposition leader in the history of the British Parliament to block the holding of early elections.
Then Johnson accused him of hypocrisy, recalling that earlier Corbin verbally supported the new elections, but now he refused them, fearing to lose seats in parliament because of his opposition to Brexit.
A source in Johnson’s office recalled that if the opposition decides to hold early elections, they will be held on October 15. Earlier, the same date was discussed by members of parliament.
“On Monday, Corbin will have the last opportunity to become prime minister and hold talks in Brussels on October 17-18. MPs should understand that they may not be able to prevent the EU exit without a deal if Corbin opposes the people declaring their position in the October 15 elections. This week, parliamentarians will be dismissed from their homes and deprived of any further opportunity to influence the course of negotiations that will be held on October 17, ”The Telegraph quoted the government source as saying.
- Boris Johnson and Queen Elizabeth
- © Victoria Jones / Pool via REUTERS
Johnson's fate
If the extraordinary elections still take place, as a result, a new coalition government will be formed that advocates for the soft form of Brexit, Vladimir Schweitzer believes.
“It is not known who this government will consist of, because now all the British parties are at war among themselves. Deputies who left the Conservative Party due to disagreement with Johnson will not go to a coalition with Labor anyway, and liberal democrats advocate that Brexit not take place, ”the expert explained.
At the same time, Boris Johnson should not be taken hostage to a situation that follows the path of Theresa May, Schweitzer noted, since he still had some freedom of action, like stopping the parliamentary session until October 14.
“Of course, the opposition in the House of Commons wants to delay both the Brexit itself and the elections, but we need to decide now: either live in a new way, or live the way they lived before, but in the current situation this is unlikely. Now none of the parties have obvious chances to win, ”the expert explained.
Andrei Manoilo, in turn, believes that Johnson will much more quickly follow the path of his predecessor Theresa May.
“The fact is that he is now afloat solely due to populism. Johnson just came to this position and Brexit - the first, in fact, a serious matter that tests his abilities. In this matter, he will either defend his position or lose ... However, his predecessor found the courage to leave, and Johnson would cling to power until someone shoves him, ”the expert concluded.