In Afghanistan, Donald Trump's electoral calculations clash with Taliban

Donald Trump had promised in his election campaign to withdraw the last US troops from Afghanistan and end the "endless wars" in which the United States is involved. A promise repeated many times and he hoped to hold at the latest before the presidential election of 2020, to make it one of the pillars of his new campaign.

An historic and unexpected agreement seemed to be emerging between Washington and the Taliban, but after months of talks to find a compromise to end the 17-year-old conflict in Afghanistan, the US president has turned around. Two presidential tweets were enough to announce, on September 7, the abrupt break of negotiations with the insurgent movement of Afghanistan, and the cancellation of a project, until now confidential, of a meeting with "the main leaders of the Taliban" at Camp David, a residence as prestigious as symbolic.

To explain this dramatic coup, Donald Trump highlighted his exasperation, after the attack on September 5 in Kabul. This attack claimed by the insurgents killed one American soldier. "Who are these people who kill so many people supposedly to raise the auction? They failed, they only made their position worse!" Donald Trump thundered on Twitter.

An insufficient agreement in the eyes of Donald Trump?

According to the New York Times, the death of US soldier Elis Angel Barreto Ortiz forced Donald Trump to abandon the scheduled Camp David meeting a few days before the 18th anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. the origin of the war in Afghanistan. "It's over, we can not do that," said the US president, according to an official quoted by the daily.

However, there is speculation on the other side of the Atlantic about the real reasons behind Donald Trump's sudden decision to end negotiations with the Taliban. Especially since since the beginning of the dialogue process, started about a year ago, several attacks have been claimed by the Taliban. The year 2018 was the deadliest for civilians in Afghanistan, with 3,800 deaths, largely attributed to insurgents.

"The Taliban have not stopped in recent months to attack the Afghan army and police throughout the negotiation process," said Wassim Nasr, a journalist with France 24 and a specialist in jihadist movements, who want to dictate their conditions. to a Trump administration, which is trying to find an honorable way out in this crisis ".

Did the US president want to regain control of an agreement he deemed insufficient, he who is used to vilifying the treaties signed by these predecessors, such as the Vienna agreement on nuclear Iran, concluded by the administration Obama and qualified as "the worst deal in history?" Some experts think so.

"We can not be sure of anything with Donald Trump, but it seems that his decision was motivated by several points, the first is indeed the attack in which an American soldier was killed last week, explains France 24 Afzal Ashraf, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Nottingham, but he may also be looking for himself as an outstanding negotiator to push the Taliban to make last-minute concessions. much more important. "

He added: "Both parties are seeking to profit from these talks but none of them can afford to leave the negotiations in a weak position". Especially not Donald Trump, who is already campaigning for a second term in the White House.

Pressures on the White House

Especially since in recent days, despite a national consensus on the need to end the military intervention in Afghanistan, part of the American political class has expressed doubts about a process led drums beating because of the timing American election.

For example, several former US ambassadors to Afghanistan warned in a forum against the possibility of a total US withdrawal before peace actually returned to the country. "A major withdrawal of US forces should follow and not precede a real peace agreement," said the signatories of this open letter, including five former ambassadors, all in post in the years following the 2001 US invasion. , after 9/11.

"There has been a lot of pressure on the White House regarding this process, and not only from the former ambassadors, but also from the side of the Congress and the senators who expressed their concern", explains France 24 Fahimeh Robiolle , specialist in Afghanistan and lecturer at ENA.

According to the US media, divisions on this issue have emerged within the Trump administration, including between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Chief Negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad, in favor of the agreement and President John Bolton's National Security Advisor, who advocates withdrawing without an agreement not to compromise with the Taliban.

According to initial reports, the draft agreement provides for an initial withdrawal, within 135 days, of five bases in which US forces are posted. By the end of this first phase, 8,600 American soldiers would remain in Afghanistan, compared to 13,000 to 14,000 today. In exchange, the Taliban promised guarantees in counterterrorism, a "reduction of violence" and the launching of direct peace negotiations with the Kabul authorities, to which the insurgents had so far always refused.

The surprise initiative by Donald Trump cast a veil of uncertainty over the process, although Mike Pompeo assured that the door of negotiations would remain open, provided the Taliban "change their attitude".

For their part, the Taliban, who allegedly provoked the wrath of the US president by refusing to go to Camp David according to the New York Times, promised, after the flip-flop of Washington, to "continue their jihad" until the "end of the occupation" and to make America suffer "more than any other". And unlike the US president, pressed by the electoral calendar, time plays in their favor.

"The Taliban have been defining for more than a decade that their victory was the Americans' departure from Afghanistan, regardless of the way or the date," said Professor Afzal Ashraf, "because their main strengths in this conflict are patience and Even if these negotiations fail, they know that ultimately, the United States will return to the negotiating table, so that Donald Trump can keep his promise to bring his troops back to the country.Sometimes, patience and persistence are stronger than military capabilities. "