• United Kingdom: Opposition blocks elections until Brexit is extended for three months
  • United Kingdom: The resignation of the Minister of Labor aggravates the crisis of the Boris Johnson Government

Premier Boris Johnson is willing to fight the battle of Brexit before the Supreme Court and could end up in jail for contempt, if he defies the law driven by opposition parties and refuses to ask for a new extension of the EU's exit . The possibility of seeing the premier behind bars, pointed out by former director of the State Attorney General Ken McDonald, would make him a kind of "martyr of Brexit," as former conservative and unconditional ally leader Iain Duncan Smith has acknowledged.

After a chaotic week, marked by his four parliamentary defeats and the resignations of Amber Rudd as Secretary of Labor and his brother Jo Johnson as Secretary of State for Universities, the conserved leader is running out of options before his determination to leave the EU "with agreement or without agreement" on October 31.

The total chaos situation - led by his special advisor and former Vote Leave Dominic Cummings strategist - is however playing in favor of Johnson in the polls . The Conservative Party leads the Labor Party by 14 points (35% to 21%) in the latest YouGov poll, thanks to the growing perception among Brexit supporters that the premier is defending the will of the people against the obstructionism of Parliament.

1.- Elections option.

Johnson will resubmit a motion on Monday in Westminster, similar to the one defeated last Wednesday, to hold early elections on October 15. The premier needs the support of two thirds of the House of Commons (434 votes). The leader of the Labor opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, has sealed an alliance with the Liberal Democrats and Scottish and Welsh nationalists to boycott the proposal and condition the holding of elections (possibly in November) to a new extension of the Brexit of three months.

2.- Option "elections" (Plan B).

The premier could go further and force elections on October 15 by introducing an amendment to the Law of Fixed Parliamentary Periods, which would require only a simple majority. The problem is that Johnson has lost the majority in the last week (counted on the 10 Norwegian unionists) and can no longer count on the support of the 21 deputies expelled from the Conservative Party for voting against the Government.

3.- "Nuclear" option.

Johnson has given orders to his advisors to prepare for the possibility of a brilliant resignation as prime minister, as the only way to force elections as soon as possible. " It would be a tactical maneuver to lose a battle and win the war, " sources close to the government warn The Sunday Times . In that case, the Queen would invite the Labor opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn or a politician who has sufficient parliamentary support to form a Unity Government to form a Government. Johnson could then file a motion of censure and force the holding of general elections. The temporary suspension of Parliament (between September 10 and October 14), however, complicates this maneuver.

4.- Option "agreement".

Johnson can also keep his letters until the European summit on October 17, the last chance to start an agreement with the EU. The inflexibility shown since his arrival in Downing Street, simply demanding the removal of the safeguard to avoid returning to the hard border in Ireland, is only comparable with the minimum effort shown by his negotiating team (headed by the europhobe David Frost) to Breaking the ice with Brussels. At the end of the summit, and without possible agreement, Johnson could announce that he is not willing to ask for a new Brexit extension ("formerly dead in a ditch," he said).

5.- "Supreme" option.

The premier would finally be willing to take the battle to the Supreme Court on the decisive week of October 21, which could be the biggest constitutional crisis in the United Kingdom in the last three centuries. If Johnson persists in ignoring the law passed by Parliament - vetoing extreme Brexit and forcing a new postponement until January 2020 - he could end up "considered in contempt and end up in prison, possibly accompanied by Dominic Cummings," according to the former prosecutor and liberal - Democrat Ken McDonald. "In that case, he would not get more cooperation than the fans around him."

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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