At the beginning of 1981, Likud Prime Minister Menachem Begin knew that he would face a very difficult battle to retain his position during the elections scheduled for mid-year. In fact, no one in Israel - including Begin himself - expected that Likud would remain in power. After the June elections, with the expected fierce competition from the Labor Alliance led by Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin, the ruling Likud was suffering from widespread internal strife, accusations of corruption, and international pressure over the ongoing skirmishes of Israeli planes at the time. The atmosphere of Lebanon.
At that time, opinion polls indicated an expected landslide defeat for the Likud party with a share of the vote not exceeding 20% of the total electoral votes, compared with the expectation of about half of those votes to the opposition Labor Alliance, but Likud succeeded in recent months ahead of the elections in taking action Rapid remedial action to improve the deteriorating public position of the party by adjusting tax policies to improve the situation of large segments of the electorate and increasing support for petroleum products. (1) The party also used its position in power to strengthen its hostile policy in the occupied territory and increase activity in southern Lebanon, in conjunction with Of a huge media alliance against labor to show them as non-national symbols if expressed their opposition to these policies.
The Likud plan paid off in improving the party's performance indicators as the elections approached, but it was not enough to bridge the huge gap with its rivals.The Likud had to bet on the paper that its leaders are well employed: "national security". Just three weeks after the election, Begin was given a surprise Israeli air permit - based on extensive intelligence guidance - to launch a massive air strike, known as Operation Oprah, or Operation Babylon, to target Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in the heart. Iraqi territory only 17 km from the capital Baghdad using S. Lord of the F-16 fighter jets loaded with highly destructive Mark-84 bombs, and after Israeli aircraft maneuvered through Jordanian and Saudi airspace, they were eventually able to rain their target with destructive bombs, before successfully deceiving the air defenses. Iraqi and return to Israel safely.
Despite the negative international reactions to the operation in the West and the outrage that it provoked in Washington to the extent that the Ronald Reagan administration decided to express its dissatisfaction by banning the delivery of a squadron of F-16s to Israel, the operation was greeted with great celebration in Israel. It represented a tremendous success for the intelligence and military security apparatus, and the political success of the Likud government led by Menachem Begin, so even though the plan initially was to keep the strike secret and try to hide Israel's responsibility for the operation as usual in major intelligence activities outside the border, the Begin government could not resist Egh DONC take advantage of the strike to improve political points at the scheduled end of the month, the same election.
This time, Begin's policies came to fruition exactly the way he wanted, and Likud succeeded in reversing his electoral position and winning the ballot by less than 1%, winning 48 seats in the Knesset versus 47 seats in the opposition coalition, forming Menachem Begin again the government united with a group of right-wing parties The younger, before being forced to resign two years later, left the leadership of the ruling coalition to his Likud successor Yitzhak Shamir.
Operation Oprah was the last time Israel launched direct military action into Iraqi territory or airspace. Israel has since refrained from directly targeting Iraq for nearly three decades, and even when Saddam Hussein rained Tel Aviv, Haifa and the Negev with 39 rockets. During the first days of the Second Gulf War - in a precedent for any country to target Israeli depth until that time - Israel refrained from responding in response to US advice to remain calm until the end of military operations in Kuwait.
But the long military lull in Israeli-Iraqi relations came to an abrupt end in the past two months when the Likud government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, targeted the Iraqi depth on four consecutive occasions. The start was on July 19 when an explosion targeted a Popular Mobilization militia base in Salah al-Din province, north of Baghdad. Just three days later, there were reports of explosions at Camp Ashraf in Diyala province, near the Iraqi-Iranian border, another base used by militias. Later, on August 12, an explosion rocked an ammunition depot associated with the Popular Mobilization near the Saqr military base south of Baghdad. Last but not least, explosions hit a weapons storage facility near Balad Air Base, 80 km north of Baghdad. .
Although Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility for any of these four incidents, Netanyahu, like Begin, did not mind taking some of the credit for these operations, especially as he finds himself caught up in corruption charges a few weeks after crucial elections. This was particularly evident in the way Netanyahu responded when asked if Israel could strike Iranian targets in Iraq, where he asserted that his security services would "work anywhere against a state that wants to destroy us," he said. He gave his security services the freedom "to do anything necessary to thwart Iran's plans," he said "It will not grant Tehran immunity anywhere," he said.
This was Netanyahu's own and very elusive version of adopting the recent attacks in Iraq, or rather his miniature version of Operation Opera of the new millennium.If Netanyahu's indirect remarks left some doubt, the leaks of US officials who spoke to the Wall Street Journal were certain (5). Israel's responsibility for the July 19 attacks in Salah al-Din has left no doubt about Israel's direct involvement in Iraq for the first time in three decades, a huge change in Israeli strategy that raises speculation about the motivation of the Hebrew entity to expand its proxy battle against Iran from Syria. -a It has seen 200 Israeli air strikes against Iranian targets in the past two years - to Iraq and Lebanon, the three countries that have formed a geographical barrier to prevent a direct war between Tehran and Tel Aviv in recent decades.
The insured president
Since the establishment of the occupying entity in 1948, Iraq has never recognized the new Hebrew state and declared war on it early as an aggressor entity on Arab land, and immediately closed the oil pipeline linking Mosul and Haifa built by the British in the thirties, and Baghdad was part of the Arab military alliance In the aftermath of the war, Iraq was the only Arab country that had not signed a ceasefire agreement with Israel, so in theory Baghdad has been in a state of continuous war with Israel since 1948.
During the first decades of the Israeli occupation, Iraq was keen to prove that its hostility with the Hebrew entity is not merely rhetorical rivalry, so Baghdad was keen to participate in all Arab wars against the Zionist state, although Iraq is the only country that does not have direct borders with Israel During the Six-Day War in 1967, Iraq deployed squadrons of tanks, soldiers, and fighter jets on Jordan's border with Israel, but the war ended before Iraqis could actually take part in the fighting, and in the 1973 war. In Egypt and Syria did Iraq has previously notified its intention to go to war - Baghdad has deployed a number of military formations on the Syrian front, including more than 30,000 fighters and about 500 tanks, and is believed to have played a decisive role in preventing an Israeli incursion into Syria.
Throughout the years of Saddam Hussein's Iraq, the country continued its anti-Israeli policies and Baghdad never showed any sign of its desire to improve relations.
During the following years of Iraq under Saddam Hussein, the country continued its anti-Israeli policies and Baghdad never showed any sign of wanting to improve relations with the Jewish state despite the haste of Egypt and Jordan - two of the ring countries with direct borders with Israel - to normalize their relations. As a result, since the late 1970s, Israel began to view Iraq as one of the greatest security threats despite the absence of a direct border between the two countries. The paradox that cannot be ignored in this context is that Israel cooperated with the nascent Islamic Revolution regime in Iran. Lasth In the early 1980s, after Iranian Phantom attacks failed to completely destroy the Osirak reactor during Operation Burning Sword in September 1980, Iran shared intelligence about the Iraqi light water reactor with the Israelis. This information is the cornerstone of Operation Opera, which was carried out the following year and pushed back Iraq's nuclear ambitions for many years.
The targeting of Osirak was not just a military operation against a strategic asset in a hostile country, but a qualitative shift in the Israeli military doctrine, which had long focused on the immediate neighbors, and therefore expanded the concept of Israeli national security to include all hostile states in the ocean. Even if these countries did not have a direct border with Israel, the bombing of the Iraqi nuclear reactor became a precedent for what became known as the "Begin Doctrine" relative to Menachem Begin, which states that Israel must act to prevent any hostile state. Of her possessing nuclear weapons.
But as Iraq's nuclear program declined after Operation Opera, Israel had little incentive to invest in a military conflict with a country hundreds of kilometers from its borders, especially as Saddam Hussein's regime became far from a threat to Israel after it drowned itself. In costly regional conflicts, from the eight-year war with Iran to its invasion of Kuwait, not to the diplomatic clash with the United States that ended with the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the departure of Saddam Hussein's regime, which permanently changed the calculus of Israeli-Iraqi relations. Although post-invasion Iraq did not rush to normalize relations with Israel, the modified version of Iraqi nationalism in post-occupation Iraq was more conciliatory with the acceptance of Israel as a fait accompli and possibly considering the eventual establishment of relations with it, as well as the fact that the war paid off. The rise of many elites and forces that have close friendship with Tel Aviv, such as the Kurds and Iraqi dissidents who have long lived in exile in the United States and the West.
The Netanyahu Doctrine
With the collapse of Iraq after the US occupation, the potential threats against Israel by countries that do not share direct borders with them faded, and the security threats to the Jewish state again concentrated in the occupied territory, both in the West Bank, mainly in the south where the Gaza Strip, as well as the northern front where Hezbollah is based. In southern Lebanon, and to a lesser extent the northeastern frontier on the border with Syria, Begin's doctrine was largely shattered as the nuclear dangers faded in the region until 2007, when Israel dealt a blow to the Syrian nuclear reactor in Deir Ezzor as part of an intelligence operation known as Operation Bustan.
Two years later, Israel's military doctrine witnessed a dramatic shift as Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu rose again to power, carrying a security doctrine that treated the Islamic Revolution as the greatest threat to Israel's existence, and with Iran having no direct borders with Israel and operating a nuclear energy program aimed at building nuclear weapons. In the end, this meant Netanyahu's revival of the "Begin Doctrine" in some form but with the replacement of Saddam Hussein's Iraq by Islamic Iran, which inevitably meant that Israel should at least prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and harness its efforts to prevent Tehran. The consolidation of its influence in the vicinity of the Hebrew State - in any way - at the latest.
Then came the Arab Spring to turn the ugliest nightmares of Netanyahu into reality where a series of popular uprisings, civil wars and waves of armed rebellion shattered the geographic space separating Iran and Israel, and before that destroyed the political buffer structures between the two arch rivals with the collapse of political regimes in Syria and Iraq and increased inertia in the regime. With these three countries losing their formal state structures, they have turned into theoretically direct theaters of regional confrontations, most notably the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, given the apparent superiority of Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Under Tehran's long-term political project to have a direct route to the Red Sea through the territories of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the political collapse of these countries was an invaluable opportunity for Iran, although Tehran's actions in the wake of the Arab Spring It was directed against Israel in any way. The terror in the Jewish state was increasing with every step taken by Iran and its pro-militias over the burning land in the Levant and Mesopotamia.
As a result, Tel Aviv began to realize that any strategy to confront Iran should be designed according to the very rules of the Iranian game, which do not recognize the geographic boundaries of the politically collapsed neighboring countries. This meant that the Israelis should use their traditional military superiority to curb Iran's unconventional moves. By targeting pro-Tehran militias, whether Shia militias, Revolutionary Guards battalions operating in Syria, Popular Mobilization militias in Iraq or Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria was the starting point of choice for Israeli operations for several logical reasons. Israel is in direct borders, giving a pretext for Tel Aviv to intervene under the pretext of protecting its security and strategic depth. Secondly, Syria has already become a playground for many regional and international forces that are accumulating their forces and military equipment in the conflict, which means that no one will heed any claims accusing Israel of violating Syrian sovereignty. Syria was already considered the most active and active point in Tehran's regional strategy. Unlike its activities in support of the Assad regime and consolidating its influence in Syria, Tehran built and operated a number of factories to produce and assemble precision missiles over Syrian territory according to captivity claims. Ialah.
Iran's missiles and their pro-Iranian factions have long been an obsession for policymakers in Tel Aviv, especially with the rapid development of these missiles, not only in terms of range but also accuracy, as Iran's precision missiles are far more dangerous than inaccurate missiles with the ability to hit a target. It is limited to a 15-foot radius, unlike inaccurate missiles that need to fire large numbers to hit its targets. Since the range of precision missiles Iran has is between 100 and 600 kilometers (100-600 km), Tehran cannot directly hit Israel through Launch these missiles from its territory, and It needs to move it closer, whether Lebanon, Syria or even Iraq, if it wants to use it to target Israel or even to include it in the balance of deterrence balance between the two powers.
As a result, Israel has always been sensitive to any transfers of rockets through Syrian territory to Lebanese Hezbollah even during the early years of the Syrian war, when the Hebrew entity was reluctant to intervene. Even after Israel changed its strategy after 2017, factories and rocket collection and firing centers remained. Iran's drone bases are the main targets of Israeli operations.In this regard, it is estimated that Israel has carried out more than 200 airstrikes on Syria since 2017, during which it focused on destroying the missile and drones infrastructure and targeting the most senior commanders responsible for the operation. P of weapons, where it seems that the rocket precision guided aircraft became occupies in the doctrine of Tantiaho arranged the same risk that nuclear weapons were operated in the doctrine of Begin.
From Damascus to Baghdad
By the end of 2018, it became clear that Israel's new strategy in Syria was working successfully, that Israeli air operations had already succeeded in destroying many of Tehran's strategic assets and hampered its activity in Syria.It also became clear that Iran had miscalculated the potential impact of Israeli intervention Mistaken before, she believed that Tel Aviv would maintain its policy of staying away from the Syrian war, so that Iran suffered major operational setbacks in Syria and decided to retaliate by transferring part of its missile activities to Iraq. Rehabilitation and operation of Iraqi missile factories in Zaafaraniya, east of Baghdad, in Jurf al-Sakhar, north of Karbala, and in Iraqi Kurdistan, all of which were controlled by Shiite militias linked to Iran.
At the same time, there were initial reports of Israeli raids targeting weapons transfers to Iraqi militias in the Albukamal area of Deir ez-Zor governorate near the Syrian border with Iraq at the end of 2018, but Israel apparently refrained from conducting further operations in that area due to central command reservations. Fearful of targeting more than 5,000 US troops serving in Iraq, pro-Iranian officials said things seemed to have changed dramatically after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's surprise visit to Baghdad at the end of May in which he allegedly supplied the prime minister. Waddell Abdul-Mahdi satellite images of Iranian weapons depots in Iraq, warning that if not dismantle the infrastructure of Iranian missile capabilities in Iraq, it is likely to be exposed to attack nearby.
Immediately after Pompeo's visit, in early July, Abdul Mahdi issued a decree formally annexing the Popular Mobilization Units to the Iraqi army. On the 19th of the same month, the previously mentioned unidentified attacks began targeting the PMU bases in Iraq. The United States is blamed for being the de facto dominant force in Iraq and because of suspicions that Israeli drones or even stealth F-35 fighter jets would not be able to fly from Israeli airspace to Iraq without Refueling, for N with the passage of time and the progress of the Iraqi investigations and leaks of US sources to Western newspapers, it became likely that Israel, not the United States is one of the launch of these strikes.
In fact, Israel has enough motivation, means, and opportunities to expand its anti-Iranian operations into Iraqi territory. On the military side, Israel has a strong interest in striking missile factories and stockpiles in Iraq early before Iran succeeds in creating a weapons build-up in a new front that it could use. -نظريا- لاستهداف إسرائيل جنبا إلى جنب مع جبهة حزب الله في الجنوب اللبناني، وفي الوقت نفسه فإن رئيس الوزراء بنيامين نتنياهو وحزب الليكود الحاكم يمتلكان كل الدوافع السياسية الممكنة لشن هذه الهجمات من أجل تعزيز شعبية نتنياهو كمدافع عن أمن إسرائيل قبيل انتخابات سبتم This month, especially with the prime minister's political impasse over corruption charges and his humiliating failure to form a government after the April elections.
At the level of capabilities, Israel also has all the means necessary to carry out this type of attack, from the powerful intelligence service capable of gathering information, planning and carrying out subversive activities of the Mossad, to the Air Force equipped with the most advanced aircraft and technology, which is considered the most powerful in the Middle East While Iraq lacks advanced missile defenses that can target Israeli aircraft and distinguish them from their US counterparts, otherwise, Tel Aviv will still be able to maintain a reasonable ability to deny its activities in Iraq as it operates types of aircraft. Israel has a strong presence in Syria that enables it to conduct its operations without facing the logistical difficulties associated with moving planes directly from the occupied territories. The British website Middle East Eye recently revealed that some Israeli attacks in Iraq were launched from bases controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurdish) forces in Syria, with the support and funding of Saudi Arabia.
Finally, Iraq is currently the scene of more than favorable expansion of Israeli military activities. On the one hand, the United States, Israel's biggest ally, is the main foreign power operating in Iraq and has significant influence over the Iraqi government that it can use to protect Tel Aviv and cover its effects. The situation in Syria, where Russia is the most prominent power, and on the other hand, Israel has the most support it has ever received from any US administration in its history, and seeks to use this support to impose new facts on the ground, unlike the unprecedented support for Israeli moves by G Iran is fasting from the Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia.Finally, Israel recognizes that the current Iraqi government and its associated legislative institution are the least connected to Iran in Iraq since the US occupation, and that Iran's influence in Iraq has become a dilemma for many Iraqi government elites.
The United States may choose to withdraw its troops from Iraq and Syria in line with the policy of reducing the US military presence outside the border, leaving Israel in a stand-alone confrontation with Iran.
In other words, Israel is betting that the current Iraqi government will be willing to turn a blind eye to any attacks targeting Iranian military interests on Iraqi soil even if pressure from pro-Iranian legislative blocs has forced it to condemn these attacks and take a symbolic stand against them, especially in light of talk of a close relationship. Hide between Baghdad and Tel Aviv, where security and intelligence officials from both countries hold regular meetings, including in Israel, a growing and unprecedented relationship interpreted by Iraq's ambassador to the United States, Farid Yassin, of a "strong Iraqi society in Israa". Iraqi's cherished characteristics and traditions, "he described.
Tel Aviv is also betting that the current political dynamics in Iraq will play in its favor. Israeli attacks in the country could increase public discontent against the PMU and pro-Iranian factions as the activities of these groups are the main reason behind any Israeli attack, but what they ignore Perhaps Israel is that this dynamic can play the opposite as well. Factions linked to Iran may seek to retaliate by targeting US interests and assets rather than retaliation against Israel itself, and may direct their reprisals against Israel's virtual allies in the Gulf. Like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, if it does not, it is not hard to expect things to develop rapidly into a US-Iranian war, much of it going on Iraqi territory, especially with tensions between the two countries already since the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal.
Israel is emboldened to expand its campaign against Iranian interests on various fronts without provoking a major reaction
Although Israel may not mind in that scenario, long-term risk and benefit calculations suggest that Tel Aviv may be the most affected. Instead of fighting a costly war against Iran in Iraq, the US may choose to withdraw its troops from Iraq and Syria in line with the policy. Reducing the US military presence outside the borders, leaving Israel in a stand-alone confrontation with Iran, which at some point will have to respond to Israeli measures in order to preserve its popular image, as well as the possibility that Israeli actions could cause the fragile Iraqi government to collapse, leaving Iraq divided. De facto between the armed factions that only agree on common hostility to the United States and Israel.
Despite these dangers, Netanyahu appears to have already made up his options - at least for now - as evidenced by the Israeli attacks on Beirut's southern suburb of Beirut, Hezbollah's stronghold, on August 24 and the ensuing clashes, which have continued. Unprecedented since the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah, it is technically a clear breach of the cease-fire between the two sides, actions that collectively show that Israel is emboldened to expand its campaign against Iranian interests on various fronts without provoking a major reaction. , Led by a power-obsessed prime minister who doesn't mind Burn the ground around it if it means staying in office for as long as possible.