“Chances to exit will increase”: why Scotland insists on a new referendum on independence from the UK

A new independence referendum is being prepared in Scotland. This was stated in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt by the head of autonomy Nikola Sturgeon. In response to a question whether the Scots would be asked if they would like to secede from the UK, the first minister said: “Yes, next year.”

“I think, and polls also show that the Scots want to be independent. We were the main opponents of leaving the EU without a deal. As the first Minister of Scotland, I am very unpleasant that our fate was determined without us. It’s much better to control the situation on our own, and it will be so when we get independence, ”she said.

Sturgeon leads the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has a majority in the parliament of autonomy and has been consistently advocating for secession from Britain for many years. A previous attempt to gain independence was made in September 2014. In a referendum, 55% of autonomy residents with voting rights spoke out against secession from the UK. As a result of the plebiscite, the first Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, resigned. His successor Nicola Sturgeon promised to continue the course towards independence.

Supporters of the ShNP again spoke about the need to secede from the UK after a referendum on the United Kingdom's exit from the EU in 2016. The Scots, unlike most Britons, spoke out against leaving the European Union. The SNP argues that the will of the people of Scotland must be fulfilled, even if it requires leaving Britain.

Sturgeon vs. Johnson

The fact that in the event of the United Kingdom leaving the EU, a new referendum on the independence of Scotland is possible, Sturgeon has repeatedly stated. However, she named the specific date of its holding for the first time.

In an interview with Die Welt, the head of Scottish autonomy directly linked this with the intention of the new head of the British government, Boris Johnson, to implement the so-called rigid brexit - the country's exit from the European Union by October 31 without any conditions with Brussels.

• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson meeting with Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland
• © Russell Cheyne

Back in December 2016, Sturgeon submitted to the Scottish Parliament a 50-page plan for Scotland's Place in Europe. It emphasizes that even in the event of Great Britain's exit from the EU, it will be preferable for the economy of autonomy to maintain access to the pan-European market and a visa-free regime with the European Union. In the case of severe brexitis, Scotland will be deprived of these opportunities.

Opinion polls show that Scottish voters have changed significantly since the 2014 referendum. Thus, according to a survey conducted in August by the sociological service of Lord Ashcroft, for the first time in two years, the number of Scots who advocated independence exceeded the number of opponents of separation from Britain (52% versus 48%).

“Of course we are talking about a slight margin. But Brexit is also the result of a slight preponderance of supporters of leaving the EU at the 2016 referendum, ”said Natalya Eryomina, professor of the European Studies Department of the St. Petersburg State University, in an interview with RT.

She notes that the Scots are frightened by the uncertainty that may follow the British exit from the European Union.

“The severance of centuries-old ties with England, of course, is not happy either. But this fear is less than the fear of the prospect of serious economic losses associated with leaving the common European market, into which Scotland is quite strongly integrated, ”the expert says.

At the same time, analysts believe that Sturgeon, naming the specific dates of the referendum, is too hasty. According to British law, such a will is possible only with the consent of London. In 2012, then Prime Minister of Great Britain David Cameron and Alex Salmond managed to reach an agreement on the referendum and named its term: 2014.

“Now it’s difficult to understand whether the British Parliament will once again allow Scotland to speak out about its independence. Of course, it is possible that a sanction for a new referendum will be given. However, everyone understands the differences between the 2014 situation and the current one. Now the probability that Scotland will leave the UK is significantly higher than five years ago, ”said Alexander Tevdo-Burmuli, associate professor of the European Integration Department at MGIMO, in an interview with RT.

Neutral position

Experts emphasize that at the moment, the question of Scotland’s independence is not decided in Edinburgh or by the local authorities.

“Imagine that in London the same chaos will remain as it is now, and the exit from the EU will be implemented in a tough scenario. In this case, the number of Scots who advocate independence and, therefore, to maintain their membership in the European Union can grow so much that they cannot be ignored. Then the chances of Scotland leaving Britain will increase, ”said Tevdoi-Burmuli.

• In Scotland, do not forget that their country was once a separate kingdom
• AFP
• © Andy Buchanan

If a hard brexit can be avoided, the Scots will have less motivation to leave the UK, the expert said.

It should be noted that Sturgeon in the same interview with Die Welt speaks critically enough about British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. She fears that the British government will block the referendum on Scottish independence and characterizes such actions as unacceptable and not democratic.

“I would love to agree to new elections and the resignation of the government,” Sturgeon said.

She emphasizes that the issue of re-election to parliament was not relevant only this week, since the main thing now is to prevent the country's uncontrolled exit from the EU.

“But in the future, I want new elections so that the voice of Scottish citizens is heard - not only in connection with their negative attitude to Brexit, but also about the future of Scotland itself,” the first minister emphasized.

Kingdom leaders, however, disagree with Sturgeon. The Labor Party and other opponents of Boris Johnson’s course agreed not to support early parliamentary elections until October 31, the country’s exit from the EU, the British television channel Sky News reports citing opposition sources.

Johnson himself had previously proposed re-election of parliament. He even announced the date of the new election: October 15th. So he reacted to the decision of the House of Commons of the British Parliament to pass a bill according to which the country's exit from the EU should be delayed for three months, if it is not possible to reach an agreement with the European Union until October 31.

Experts also believe that the prospects for a new referendum on Scottish independence depend on the position that the EU will take. Now many supporters of separation from the UK are being held back by fears that, having left the United Kingdom, Edinburgh will remain outside the EU.

“Formally, Brussels does not welcome any separatist movement. The process of separation of any territory, as is known from history, is associated with wars and bloodshed. Therefore, the change of borders in Europe is perceived by EU officials as something terrible. But taking into account the position taken by Great Britain, Brussels can heed the opinion of Scotland. The EU will not be able to abandon the Scots, because they are a European nation, actively participate in all major processes, ”suggests Eremin.

Tevdoi-Burmuli believes that the EU will emphasize a neutral position regarding the internal affairs of Great Britain and will not give any hints of Scotland that in the event of independence this country will be admitted to the European Union.

“Of course, if the referendum on independence is held and supporters of the branch win it, they will first turn to the EU with a request to receive their country there. Then the EU will be in a difficult situation. On the one hand, Brussels is interested in Scotland. On the other hand, any admission of new members to the EU should be agreed upon by all EU countries. Then questions may arise, say, in Spain. After all, if it will be allowed to secede and remain in the European Union of Scotland, who guarantees that Catalonia will not follow the same path? ”The expert summed up.