What happens in the future in the UK ? I asked an expert September 5th 18:51
Where will the turmoil for Britain's withdrawal from the EU go? I asked Mr. Ri Tanaka, the chief economist at the Institute for Life Economics Research, who is familiar with the European economy. (Interviewer / Matsuko Sato, International Department)
Prime Minister Johnson and Congress
(Q What is the current composition of the British Parliament and the controversy?)
The prime minister of Johnson believes that the only way to draw a concession from the EU is not to eliminate “no withdrawal”.
On the other hand, the parliament is doing the offense and defense, which is dangerous to “leave without agreement”, so it must be stopped somehow.
(Q Is Prime Minister Johnson inferior at present?)
First, the parliament has been working to prevent "no withdrawal without agreement".
However, the prime minister of Johnson will always take measures to counter it. Depending on future developments, Prime Minister Johnson will come back.
The card cut by Prime Minister Johnson is the dissolution general election. We are trying to change the constitution of the parliament through the dissolution of the parliament and general elections. Under British law, more than two-thirds of the House's approval is required for an early election. Since the Conservative Party alone cannot secure two-thirds of course, cooperation from the opposition party is necessary.
The opposition parties say that the priority is to prevent "leave without agreement", and the current situation is that they will not respond to the dissolution of parliament until the bill is passed.
Bargaining around the general election
(Q The general election motion was rejected once, but will the opposition respond if the bill is passed?)
There is a change in the tone of the opposition parties over the election period. Opinions began to divide among the opposition parties in terms of “Which is better before or after October 31st”. There is an opinion that it is better not only to enact the bill but also to make an election after the prime minister has officially requested the EU to extend it and also acknowledge the EU.
Even if the withdrawal postponement law is enacted, the law can be overwritten by another law. If the constitution of the parliament becomes advantageous to secession in the general election next month, there is a possibility that it will move to invalidate the bill by re-modifying the bill that requires extension of the withdrawal deadline this time There is.
If the withdrawal deadline is decided, that is, if the election is after November, Prime Minister Johnson's strategy to invalidate the bill after the general election fails. For this reason, the next few days will probably be a defense against Prime Minister Johnson and Parliament, who will bring it to the mid-October elections.
(Q: What is the prime minister's aim to bring to the general election before October 31?)
However, the approval rate of the Conservative Party plummeted because it was not possible to leave as originally promised at the end of March.
However, the support of the Conservative Party has been restored by the emergence of Prime Minister Johnson, who once again showed a strong withdrawal attitude. If the general election continues, there will be a high possibility that the number of seats will increase and become a single majority.
(Q If the conservative party wins in the general election, it will finally be "leave without agreement"?)
Prime Minister Johnson doesn't want to “leave without agreement”, but when negotiating with the EU, he believes that he will be able to draw a concession from the EU by not eliminating “leave without agreement”. If the general election is held in the middle of next month, the end of October will soon be approaching. Anxiety about “leave without agreement” also spreads. It is hoped that the EU will make a concession if that happens.
However, it is completely unclear how much the EU will make a concession, and whether the results will be taken home and accepted by the hard-leavers.
In addition, the constitution of the parliament has changed at that time, and it may no longer be difficult for the parliament to prevent “no withdrawal”, given the time constraints. After all, the risk of “withdrawal without agreement” is expected to increase toward the end of October.
Extension of EU withdrawal deadline and future prospects
(Q: If the election is postponed, is the Prime Minister struggling?)
If Prime Minister Johnson applied to the EU for an extension of the deadline, there was a possibility that he would receive a rebound from the secession party, etc. even though he became the Prime Minister by saying “absolute withdrawal”.
However, as Prime Minister Johnson, he may ask for cooperation by making Congress a bad guy and saying "I didn't respond even though I said it was a withdrawal, postponement is not the real intention." For example, it may be possible to make adjustments such that candidates from the secession party can be submitted to the constituencies of more than 20 members who have left this time.
As the Labor Party, it is difficult to read which one can win, the election when the conservative party cannot get out of the way and the election after the postponement is finalized. This is because there are both secessionists and remnants among Labor Party supporters.
(Q The congressional confusion continues, but is the prospect open?)
Currently, the parliament has won two wins, but there are still many ways for Prime Minister Johnson to move on to the next move. There is still a possibility to bring it into the negotiations with the EU without excluding the possibility of “no agreement”.
In the future, the battle will be even more intense. The election time will be visible around the beginning of the week.