Do Kuwait's actions yield a Saudi-Qatari bilateral reconciliation?

Abdullah Al Emadi

Kuwaiti National Assembly Speaker Marzouq Al-Ghanim visited Doha a few days ago, carrying a written message from Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani. Breakthrough in the Gulf crisis.

A few days later, Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad al-Thani, the personal representative of the Emir of Qatar, visited Kuwait with a reply to Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad, raising the expectations of observers of the Gulf crisis, and that a Kuwaiti move seems to be active as the political life in the region begins to return with the end of the period. The summer vacation, and consider the visit of the personal representative of the Emir of Qatar to Kuwait as a second proof of the validity of expectations and guesses of observers on the role of Kuwait to resolve the crisis.

As soon as the emir announced his departure for Washington on Monday for a private visit followed by another official for talks with US President Donald Trump on Thursday, the observers themselves considered that the visit as a third proof of the validity of what they are going to resolve the crisis. In the Gulf.

These moves were preceded by a verbal message conveyed by Saudi Minister of State and Member of the Saudi Council of Ministers Prince Turki bin Mohammed bin Fahd Al Saud from Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the Emir of Kuwait.

These signs come at a time when Doha is reaffirming its previous messages and its willingness to dialogue in order to gather the Gulf row, as confirmed by the Qatari Defense Minister Khalid Mohammed Al-Attiyah in a public meeting at the festival "Qatari success" in Doha a few days ago, that Qatar is open to unconditional dialogue With the blockade countries whenever they want, in a sign interpreted by observers as a message to the Gulf trio of besieged Qatar that the crisis can only end with dialogue and not others.

On the other hand, followers of the Gulf crisis believe that the accelerating events in Yemen may have helped more and pushed to resolve the crisis, especially as the main power in the region, Saudi Arabia, finds itself after those events closer to reaching a critical point to stop at, especially after it received Two strikes from its ally the UAE in a short period.

The first was its withdrawal from the coalition on the pretext of repositioning its forces in Yemen. It was its active role in the coup of the Southern Transitional Council in Aden against the legitimate government, and the desire to divide Yemen, according to official Emirati tweets, in a move that Saudi Arabia saw as misplaced and time.

But what is the relationship of Yemen events to the Gulf crisis?
Saudi Arabia since its involvement in the intervention in Yemen and the continuation of the war until now, and then the siege of Qatar, killing the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and its position is worsening, and even more critical to the world.

The chances of getting out of it have diminished as the three crisis crises are intertwined, and the recent events in Yemen have added insult to injury. It has become clear to everyone that a change in the official Saudi and popular mood has taken place towards the closest and closest ally, the UAE, which has pushed votes from within. Saudi Arabia to call for the disintegration of the UAE, despite the major consequences of staying in the coalition, and the need to search for those who can mitigate the depth of crises in Riyadh.

There is no doubt that Doha - according to followers - is the station where Riyadh finds solutions to some of its crises, for the sake of jurisprudence rule "what does not realize all is not left much." If Riyadh is unable to solve all its crises at once, it does not mean to sit back and leave all its crises, but to resolve one or some of them.

In this sense, some believe that Riyadh, perhaps by removing its crisis with Qatar from its path, may find Doha - after the normalization of their relations - political and media support, helping to resolve other crises.

Doha, for its part, recognizes that Saudi Arabia is its strategic depth, that the blockade crisis - no matter who is behind it - weakens the two countries, but the entire GCC, and that dialogue with Riyadh bilaterally and reaching understandings would trigger the crisis, as the rest of the besieged trio of Qatar does not. Has the influence of a country the size of Saudi Arabia.

Manama's decision is tied to Riyadh, while Cairo's presence in the crisis is like nothing else for Qatar and has no impact on it. Abu Dhabi remains another story that needs special treatment, which Doha does not consider as a priority at the moment.

In this atmosphere and with these visions, the Kuwaiti mediator may have picked up signals and messages.

However, with the changes on the ground and the difference of policies and interests between the parties to the crisis, and based on the jurisprudence rule "what does not realize all does not leave much," some observers believe that Kuwait may activate and push towards supporting Saudi-Qatari reconciliation at a certain level as a first stage, followed by - According to what will entail the reform of the situation between the two parties - the phase of reform of the situation between Doha and the rest of the siege.

There is no doubt that the agenda of the Emir of Kuwait in his visit to Washington will include the Gulf crisis as one of the important priorities of Sheikh Al-Sabah, in addition to discussing other regional issues with Trump, based on the latter's role in influencing the situation in the region considering the intertwined interests with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, both The two main Gulf crisis.

Will Kuwait move according to that rule, as will Riyadh and Doha? This is what the days of September can reveal, which seem to be as hot as the Gulf, which then begins to tend towards moderation.