• Survey: Most do not want elections and accuses Pedro Sánchez of forcing them

With Spain pending whether or not elections are repeated on November 10 and attentive to the movements that will take place in the coming weeks, meetings between political parties and the round of consultations of the King, the first electoral poll of the new and uncertain course politician points out that in a new election the PSOE would increase its advantage substantially and United We can barely suffer attrition. The sum of the two parties would reach the absolute majority, something that does not happen now.

The electorate of Pablo Iglesias remains intact, despite his refusal to accept the socialist offer of a vice-presidency and three ministries. The PSOE would be reinforced by its status as the most voted party, in a context of general demobilization and foreseeable decline in participation. Like Mariano Rajoy in 2016.

The Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO points to Pedro Sánchez as the most benefited by new elections and points out that the main victim of the political blockade that has occurred in Spain would be Citizens.

The Spaniards do not want new elections and believe that the president of the acting Government has not worked hard enough to avoid them. Even their own voters, supporters of an agreement with Podemos, interpret it this way. But still they will vote for the PSOE again and their result will be better. In the hypothesis of an electoral 10-N, the Socialists would achieve 33.4% support, almost five points more than in April (28.7%), and We can 14.2%. Iglesias would resist with a percentage of vote almost identical to that of spring (14.3%).

The PP rises 12 seats, but the center right goes back down the downturn of Citizens and Vox

The most significant changes would affect the center right block. The PP achieves a small rebound and goes from 16.7% to 19%. Vox falls but does not sink, as some forecasts also indicate: from 10.3% to 8.3%. And it is Citizens who would obtain the greatest setback: 15.9% on 28-A and 11.8% on 10-N.

This intense descent would mean that the open debate in this formation would crystallize at the polls after the April elections, questioning the right turn imposed by Albert Rivera and putting on the table the possibility of abstaining in the investiture to tackling Sanchez and lowering the influence of nationalist parties. A debate that has already caused the march of deputies like Toni Roldán and Francisco de la Torre .

In the translation to seats the fall of Cs in a new election borders on drama. From 57 to 34, a loss of 23. Vox would go from 24 to 17, six less. And the PP would rise from 66 to 78, a dozen more. The right as a whole would lose deputies for the debacle of the orange party, which would see its options to overcome the PP. Pablo Casado would be the only head of the conservative arch, with almost twice as many seats as Cs.

In the absence of the consequences that may derive from a possible merger of PP, Cs and Vox that Casado has promoted with his proposal for a common house - Spain Suma -, the great favored of an electoral repetition would be Sánchez, who would have governance within reach of hand. A situation similar to June 2016 would occur. In that repetition of elections Rajoy received more support than in December 2015 and consolidated himself as the only possible candidate for the Presidency of the Government.

The PSOE could opt for an agreement with Podemos or govern with its abstention

The PSOE would get 145 seats, 22 more than at the moment. We can lose only two: from 42 to 40. Together, 185, nine above the absolute majority. But the sum also has a perverse reading. In the current arithmetic, the absence of an absolute majority (there are only options of a simple majority and the extra support of PNV, Compromís and PRC is necessary) has been the argument used by the PSOE to border the path of the Coalition Government, despite that after a short time he sat down to negotiate. The Socialists spent weeks arguing that they did not accept to share Executive because together they did not reach 176 and it was necessary to have other parties. With the result of the survey this excuse would no longer be possible.

But, unfortunately for Podemos, the advance of the PSOE is of such caliber that Sanchez would have options to be invested with the correlation of votes of the failed investiture of July. That is, his abstention and those of the PNV, Compromís and ERC. With the same sum of noes - PP, Cs, Vox, Navarra Suma, JxCat and CC - and the same abstentions, the socialist leader would be elected president of the Government because his 145 deputies represent more votes than the other positions.

ERC rises and almost monopolizes the independence vote

The survey affects the trend initiated in the last elections in Catalonia, when ERC was for the first time the most voted party in a general. The data point to a collapse of JxCat, the acronym invented by Carles Puigdemont to replace Convergence after the disappearance of this party, demolished by corruption and the sovereignty process. The survey predicts that the candidacy would lose half of its votes, going from seven to three seats.

Before the last elections of 28-A, the surveys also predicted an apocalyptic scenario for JxCat that later did not occur. However, the trend was confirmed and ERC became the hegemonic force in Catalan independence. Now, the survey delves into this line and gives the Republicans 18 seats, which is the historic ceiling that CiU reached in its best years.

The voters would be choosing the line that ERC has now adopted, which has gone from leading the independence process to presenting itself as a supporter of the negotiation on the eve of the 1-O trial ruling, in which the main accused is the Republican leader Oriol Junqueras. However, the absolute majority that could form the PSOE and Podemos would leave ERC without the power of the current situation, in which their abstention is key so that Pedro Sánchez can be invested by Congress. / RB

Data sheet

Universe: Over 18 years with the right to vote. National scope. Sample: 1,000 interviews. With a margin of error ± 3.16% for the global data, with a confidence level of 95.5% (Two sigma) and a p = q = 0.5. Questionnaire: structured. Interview: Computer-assisted telephone (CATI). Fieldwork date: August 27, 28 and 29, 2019. Completion: SIGMA DOS. Direction: José Miguel de Elías.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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  • PSOE
  • Citizens
  • We can
  • Vox
  • PP
  • Commitment
  • PNV
  • Mariano Rajoy
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • Regionalist Party of Cantabria
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • United We Can
  • Pablo Casado
  • Navarra Sum
  • ERC
  • THE WORLD
  • Canary Coalition
  • Albert rivera
  • Oriol Junqueras
  • Carles Puigdemont
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