Is it time to plan to evacuate coastal cities?

Little Mohamed Western

Environmental researchers have concluded that the only way to avoid massive and chaotic population migrations as a result of climate change and natural disasters is to immediately begin planning to evacuate coastal cities in different parts of the world.

The researchers said in a new scientific study that the studied "retreat" from these areas will avoid the world the scourge of chaos caused by the displacement of random after the occurrence of natural disasters.

Previous scientific studies have predicted that up to a billion people will be forced to leave their homes because of droughts, floods, fires and famines linked to wild climate change over the next 30 years. These conditions will generate massive mass displacements that can occur either in an anarchic and catastrophic way for the poor, or in an orderly and deliberate way to a more just and sustainable world.

From reaction to planning
"In the face of global warming, rising sea levels and climate-related developments, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat (from threatened areas)," the researchers wrote in their paper published in the journal Science on August 22. This will happen, where will it happen, when, and how? "

Rather than dealing with these forced migrations on a reactive basis, disaster after disaster, such as during emergency evacuations, researchers propose to solve this problem by adopting a strategic and managed approach (controlled and guided by new developments), and developing policies and infrastructure now to help Refugees move to new homes and away from harm as quickly as possible.

Steps to accomplish this task, as suggested by the authors of the study, range from intuitive measures such as limiting the development of real estate in high-risk areas (such as coastal cities), investing instead in creating affordable housing in safer interior, and implementing complex plans such as infrastructure construction. Preserves the cultural heritage of marginalized communities that end up leaving their ancestral homes.

"The decline could exacerbate historical errors if historically marginalized communities move elsewhere or be destroyed," the researchers wrote.

From threat to opportunity
The authors said the decline could in fact be an opportunity to revitalize societies and redistribute wealth in a more sustainable way. For example, it may be appropriate to end real estate practices that stimulate living in high-risk areas. The decline could also be an opportunity to support new schools, hospitals and housing in safer inland areas rather than improvements to facilities within high-risk areas, such as building new expensive sea walls to protect populated areas already hit by many severe storms.

The researchers suggested that countries with populations mostly in low-lying coastal areas or permanently prone to natural disasters, such as Bangladesh, invest in dozens of cities to provide infrastructure as well as education and employment opportunities to attract successive generations of people away from low-lying coasts.

While "undoing" is not an end in itself, the researchers say, it is a way to contribute to societal goals.

The large-scale evacuation of communities at risk of climate change may not happen a decade or more ago, but the only way to prepare for this unprecedented global challenge is to start planning for it now, the researchers say.