August 27 marks exactly 100 days since the assumption of Vladimir Zelensky as president of Ukraine. At the inauguration ceremony on May 20, he promised to do everything “so that the Ukrainians would not cry anymore” and announced large-scale reforms.
Major success
The first decision of the former comedian and actor, who became president, was a decree on the dissolution of parliament. In the early parliamentary elections on July 21, 2019, his party “Servant of the People” received 254 out of 450 seats, which allows her to form a government on her own. The new composition of the Ukrainian parliament will hold its first meeting on August 29. On the same day, the office of Vladimir Groisman should resign and the process of forming a government will begin. So far, neither Zelensky nor his party members have directly informed who will lead the future government.
Experts interviewed by RT called the successful “Servants of the People” election the main domestic political success of Zelensky in the first 100 days of his presidency. So, according to Andrei Suzdaltsev, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and Politics, HSE, Zelensky "came close to the model of ideal power in Ukraine."
“He managed to quickly hold parliamentary elections to convert his rating into a large parliamentary faction. A large fraction allows you not to enter any coalitions. But the question of the quality of this fraction still remains, ”said Suzdaltsev.
In turn, the director of the Progressive Politics Foundation Oleg Bondarenko noted that an unconditional victory in the parliamentary elections remains "almost the only achievement of Zelensky as president."
Recall that in his inaugural speech, he called on the Parliament to adopt a law on the abolition of parliamentary immunity, a law on criminal liability for illegal enrichment, and change the Electoral Code. However, this has not yet been done.
- Deputies at a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in Kiev
- RIA News
When taking office, the president also demanded the removal of the head of the Security Service, the Prosecutor General and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. As a result, Zelensky managed to change only the head of the SBU and then temporarily and bypassing the parliament. The formal head of the special services, Vasily Gritsak, went on vacation, and his childhood friend Ivan Bakanov began to fulfill his duties. Earlier, the president by his decree appointed him deputy head of the SBU.
With the exception of Gritsak, other senior officials who inherited Zelensky from the ex-president Petro Poroshenko continued to carry out their duties. The conflict with the mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko and the demand for his dismissal have also not yet been crowned with a victory for the President’s Office.
About the nationalists
Another unfulfilled promise of Zelensky is the end of the war in the east of the country. When assuming the presidency, the former comedian called the ceasefire in the Donbass his priority task.
He said that he was “ready for anything”, if only the Ukrainian military “no longer died”. Nevertheless, the shelling on the contact line continued, and the only thing Zelensky was ready to do was to call Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron on August 7 with a request to discuss the situation in the Donbass after the death of four Ukrainian soldiers.
According to Andrey Suzdaltsev, the problem here is not so much Zelensky as the fact that Ukrainian politicians as a whole are not ready to accept the real state of affairs: the reunification of Crimea with Russia and the actual independence of the people's republics of Donbass. In such an atmosphere, the president does not have much room for maneuver.
“It is very difficult for Zelensky to go beyond this framework,” the expert is sure. - You can immediately fall under the terrible hysterical pressure of part of Ukrainian society. This part is tiny, but it is. Nationalists. And he is afraid of them. Hence, such a vague position on future plans, the hope of external support. All this suggests that statehood in Ukraine is unstable. ”
According to experts, Zelensky failed to realize many other promises made by him during the election campaign. So, fighting for the sympathy of voters in eastern Ukraine, Zelensky called for an end to “crush” the Russian language.
However, after he came to power, the discriminatory law on the functioning of the Ukrainian language as the state language came into force. As president, Zelensky no longer criticized the new norms. Moreover, his adviser Nikita Poturaev said that he sees no reason to review the provisions of the scandalous law.
- Participants in the torchlight procession of nationalists, dedicated to the 110th anniversary of the birth of Stepan Bandera in Kiev
- RIA News
After nationalists and supporters of Petro Poroshenko expressed outrage at the cancellation of the military parade in Kiev on Independence Day, Zelensky backed off and organized a patriotic procession in central Kiev with the participation of the military.
So far, Zelensky has failed to return to Ukraine the sailors detained by Russia after a provocation organized by Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait in November 2018. Despite calls by the journalistic community to change the preventive measure, the head of RIA Novosti Kirill Vyshinsky remains under arrest.
Moreover, according to experts, linking the possible release of Vyshinsky with the requirement to release Oleg Sentsov, convicted of terrorism in Russia, Zelensky put pressure on the court and thwarted the possible release of the journalist.
External factor
For 100 days, Vladimir Zelensky managed to visit France, Germany, Canada, Turkey, and also receive the Prime Minister of Israel in Kiev. In European countries, the Ukrainian president urged not to ease pressure on Russia. In Turkey, he promised the Crimean Tatars to simplify the entry into the Crimea.
While on a visit to Ankara, he also promised to resume the work of casinos in the country and lift a moratorium on the sale of agricultural land. The latest reform is actively supported by US Chargé d'Affaires in Ukraine William Taylor. However, in connection with this initiative, the country fears the purchase of fertile land by foreigners.
According to experts, the external factor, and especially relations with Washington, continues to play a serious role in Ukrainian politics.
“Now in the USA there is a change of team. If before that, Obama’s people were in charge of Ukraine, now, apparently, Trump’s proteges will control this issue, ”said Kirill Koktysh, associate professor of MGIMO (U), RT.
“This change of personnel involves a lot of room for maneuver. Now we need to watch how the new president can balance this situation, ”he added.
In turn, a RT source in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry noted that previous foreign policy strategies of the time of President Poroshenko failed.
“Russia has returned to PACE, Trump and Macron want to invite Russia to G7. The issue of the exchange of prisoners, military operations in the east of the country and the Crimea has not been resolved. It seems that soon the sanctions will be lifted. This is the loss of everything that President Petro Poroshenko fought for, ”the source said.
Unsuccessful "parody"
During the first 100 days of the presidency, Vladimir Zelensky actively traveled around the country. The peculiarity of his communication with officials was expressed by the head of state impartial criticism, sometimes reaching even threats and abuse. The last such episode was the mass dismissal of the heads of the regional departments of the SBU of the Zhytomyr, Volyn and Rivne Regions on August 12. He, as well as the leaders of the Zhytomyr regional forestry and hunting management and the head of the main police department of the Zhytomyr region, the president accused the connivance of illegal amber mining in the western regions of the country.
Ukrainian politicians and experts did not fail to note that Zelensky was copying the specific style of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. He also loves publicly scribbling and firing officials, demonstrating a tough leadership style. In particular, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko spoke about the similarity of the image of the two leaders.
However, Zelensky was convicted of trying to copy not only Lukashenko, but also Russian leader Vladimir Putin. So, on August 13, the President of Ukraine simplified obtaining citizenship for foreigners who fought on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as Russian citizens “who were persecuted”. In a conversation with RT, State Duma deputy from Sevastopol Dmitry Belik called this decision a "parody" of the decrees of the Russian president on simplifying citizenship for residents of the DPR and LPR, as well as other persons with Ukrainian citizenship.
According to Kirill Koktysh, an analogy with Lukashenko can be drawn, because, like the president of Belarus, Zelensky seeks to appear as a national leader.
“This is a logical strategy on the part of Zelensky, and here he is completely right, because the people are his fulcrum,” Koktysh believes. “Indeed, in the future it is precisely this people that will allow it to communicate with the oligarchs, carry out some unpopular but inevitable reforms, implement the Minsk agreements, and carry out land privatization.”
At the same time, other experts believe that so far the image of Zelensky as president has not yet been formed.
“Poroshenko was in many ways wrong, but he looked more like a president,” said Andrei Suzdaltsev. - Now Zelensky is looking for ways to dramatically increase trust and respect. They expect real victories, real miracles from him. ”
- President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky (right) during an inspection of the destroyed bridge over the Chechva River in the Kalush district of Ivano-Frankivsk region
- RIA News
- © Igor Maslov
In turn, the director of the Progressive Politics Fund Oleg Bondarenko stated that it was difficult for the new head of state to form an image while most of the power levers remained in the hands of the previous government.
“When a new government formed by him, approved by the new Verkhovna Rada, appears, then it will be possible to talk about his steps as the steps of the president,” the expert emphasizes.
At the same time, the source RT in the party "Servant of the People" expressed the opinion that Vladimir Zelensky is changing the image of the president.
“He is against pathos and a large number of guards, demands to move the President’s Office and really wants to carry out systemic reforms and fight corruption. Now tens of bills are being prepared, which will be adopted in the first meetings of the new Verkhovna Rada. I think that a real assessment of the president’s work should be put in the spring of next year, ”the party’s representative said.
Expectations and Concerns
According to Kirill Koktysh, the Ukrainian population "still has hope for peace, they expect that the state of war will cease, and most importantly, earnings from this war." Another expectation is associated with the start of economic growth. In addition, Oleg Bondarenko believes that Zelensky is expected to become "anti-Poroshenko" - he abandoned the anti-Russian hysteria that got its teeth on edge.
“Two things are expected from Zelensky: ending the war and lowering the prices for housing and communal services. Both that, and another are impossible ”, - Andrey Suzdaltsev considers.
However, RT sources in Ukrainian political parties are skeptical of the prospects for Zelensky’s presidency.
“Vladimir Zelensky has great expectations, and this is a risk for the new president. He probably will not succeed in raising the standard of living of ordinary Ukrainians. I do not believe that the head of state will be able to solve the country's systemic problems - to fight corruption, stop the war in the east of the country and sign an agreement with the IMF on conditions favorable to Kiev. The disappointment with his actions has already begun, and it seems to me that by the fall this disappointment will intensify, ”the interlocutor of RT in the Popular Front party believes.
In turn, the representative of the Radical Party noted that for a number of reasons Zelensky may not fulfill all his promises.
“The matter is not even in the president himself, but in his environment. The party has a lot of centers of influence and the conflict between Kolomoisky and Zelensky is a matter of time. Zelensky does not know how to negotiate and make concessions. This can create huge problems for his work with centers of influence in the regions, law enforcement agencies, and medicine. I’m not talking about conflicts with influential Ukrainian politicians and journalists. They will work against the president, ”the source said.