How will Hezbollah respond to Israel's raids?

Afif Diab-Beirut

The Lebanese are awaiting the implementation of Hezbollah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah vowed to respond to Israel's bombing of a house on the outskirts of Damascus used by its fighters, and the fall of two drones in the southern suburb of Beirut.

The anticipation comes from what analysts in Beirut described as Israel's violation of the rules of engagement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which have been in force since the cessation of hostilities in August 2006.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun's remarks to the UN Special Envoy to Lebanon Jan Kubitsch raised the anticipation and development, especially since Aoun considered the Israeli raid on a PFLP-GC position on the border with Syria, and the fall of the two drones as a declaration of war. Lebanon has the right to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

He expressed concern to the UN special envoy that the Israeli aggression could lead to deterioration of the situation, especially if it were repeated and placed Lebanon on the defensive of its sovereignty.

Right of reply
Some described the president's words as giving Hezbollah the official cover to respond to Israel in a timely manner.

In this context, political analyst Saad Kiwan believes that there is harmony between the President of the Republic and Hezbollah, and that Aoun's words were in support of Hezbollah's position and its promise to respond to Israel.

In his analysis, Kiwan goes beyond the question of how to respond and how the party will respond and Aoun's supportive stance. It is only a change in the rules of engagement in force, and Israel is launching pre-emptive attacks on every axis of resistance, and therefore a response must be made by the party in order not to change these rules. "

Elias Farhat, a military strategist, said that what happened in the southern suburbs of Beirut was an Israeli change in the rules of engagement that have been in place since 2006. Israel was refraining from launching military attacks on Lebanon and merely flying over Lebanon.

He adds to Al Jazeera Net that the failed Israeli attempt to blow up two drones in the suburb, or with the aim of assassinating some party figure, constitutes a change in the rules of engagement, and Nasrallah has clearly declared that his party does not accept this and will respond, as he hinted to respond to the killing of two party members in Syria .

Response scenarios
But what response scenario? Farhat believes that things are heading towards a retaliatory response and a process of preventing drones from flying in Lebanese airspace, whatever their height and whatever their mission.

He adds that things will not roll into all-out war according to the model of the July 2006 war or other, because Israel is not interested in such a war and can not withstand long, and he believes that the response will stand in retaliation for the party and prevent the drones from flying over Lebanon.

Strategic military expert Khaled Hamadeh argues that what Israel has done is not as much an invitation to the party and Iran to war as to test their readiness for war. Hamada says to Al Jazeera Net that it is difficult to estimate how the party will respond because of the restrictions imposed on him.

He explained that the response from the Golan Front is forbidden by Russia, and in the Shebaa Farms will be faint, while the response from Lebanon, traditionally through missile strikes, would be embarrassing for the Lebanese government, which is controlled by the party and has no interest for Iran in embarrassing it and sliding towards an open war whose results are not clear yet.