Rome (AFP)

There are "good possibilities" that the Democratic Party (PD, center-left) and the Five-Star Movement (M5S, anti-system) manage to form a new government, says to AFP Emiliana De Blasio, who teaches science at Luiss University in Rome.

Q: What is the probability of a new PD-M5S majority?

A: "From the parliamentary point of view, it is possible, the number of seats is sufficient (to guarantee a majority), for (program) agreements too, Italian policy is always unpredictable, but I believe that there is is likely to have a new government in September.

They agree to reduce the number of parliamentarians. They have a great convergence on the environmental themes, historical battleground of the Movement 5 Stars and, also in the past of the PD. Another point of convergence: the citizenship income that the PD said he was not going to touch.

More than points of disagreement, the problem comes from internal currents that cross these two parties.

This is the case of the M5S: the position of (his boss Luigi) Di Maio is rather tepid with respect to the PD because he knows that his leadership would be challenged in an alliance.

There are also at PD, with debates between pro-Renzi (former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi) and pro-Zingaretti (Nicola Zingaretti, the new leader of the PD) ".

Q: This government would not be representative, as Matteo Salvini says?

A: "Salvini can say many things but the governments are representative of the vote of the electors.We have a constitution, an electoral law.There is a majority in the parliament, the Five Stars are the first party, the PD is the second and the league is the third.

In addition, polls have been declining since it broke the crisis of government. So much so that he backed off with a new alliance proposal at M5S.

I do not think Salvini triggered the crisis by mistake. He is a very good communicator, surrounded by competent specialists. He managed to bring a party that weighed 4% to a level that makes it potentially the first in Italy.

He made no mistake. He just does not want to pay the price of the government's choices.

The 25% VAT increase is around the corner. This is a big problem that a new majority will have to solve. Italy has 23 billion euros budget hole compared to the contract (commitment) with the European Union. He wants to escape from all that.

Because election promises are one thing, public accounts are another. Like all countries, Italy must keep its commitments to Europe and Salvini knows this very well.

The draft budget will be hard and will not contain measures to revive the economy ".

Q: Who could lead the new government, a woman?

A: "The lottery has started, there is no obvious name yet, some have cited the former president of the Istat (statistics institute) Enrico Giovannini, who has created a foundation to fight against inequalities.

A woman would be really good. We had a government practically composed only of men. (The Vice-President of the Constitutional Court, Marta Cartabia) would be a high-level institutional personality. This is a magistrate, Catholic, progressive.

(Outgoing Prime Minister Giuseppe) Conte seems to please Italians and parties. You have to see how he plays his card. He was a great institutional figure. He has often corrected the errors of political communication of the members of the government.

He is a professor, like me, a lawyer who has experience: the one who was to be the people's advocate was rather the lawyer of Italy.

When there was the crisis with France's (Emmanuel) Macron and Di Maio went to meet yellow vests, Mr. Conte tried to round off the angles, he spoke to Davos with (Angela) Merkel. It has also avoided economic exclusion measures by Europe. On the institutional and international level, Giuseppe Conte has achieved a consensus that has grown over time ".

© 2019 AFP