• Jihadism.The provinces of the Islamic State, the geography of terror
  • Virtual Caliphate: Endless propaganda, the dangerous arsenal that rearms the Islamic State

There were those who, parapeted in the calm of their offices, celebrated the collapse of the caliphate as the star of their terror. Nothing could be further from the truth. Five months after its scaffolding rushed into a vacuum, the self-styled Islamic State prepares its return to the scene. A report of UN experts warns that the organization could launch a new wave of attacks internationally , with Europe as one of its main objectives, before the end of this year. "As soon as you have the time and space to reinvest in your external operations, the IS [Islamic State] will direct and facilitate international attacks along with the group-inspired attacks that continue to occur in many parts of the planet." , predicts the document prepared by experts of the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council. "The current reduction in such attacks, therefore, may not last long, possibly until the end of 2019," they warn.

The hosts of the organization that leads Abu Bakr al Baghdadi have never disappeared from Syria and Iraq, the confines in which their caliphate was declared. In Iraq, the jihadist threat has resurfaced in recent weeks, in a chain of surprise attacks and ambushes against security forces in areas of Kirkuk, Diyala or Sinyar. So far this year, the attacks have claimed the lives of 274 people. "The SI is being rebuilt in remote areas where Iraqi forces have a hard time guaranteeing order," underlines a report from the US State Department published earlier this month.

On Mount Sinyar, in northwestern Iraq, its onslaught spreads the same panic as it did five years ago, when jihadists stormed their villages kidnapping their women and liquidating several thousand people. "The terrorists have launched several attacks in recent weeks. On the last occasion, they killed two neighbors," Jaled Murad , a survivor of one of the executions signed by the IS who now makes a living as a sentry in the Sinyar city, to which a hundred families have returned with enormous misgivings. On horseback from both countries, the IS maintains about 18,000 militants , organized in a constellation of sleeping cells that has claimed ambushes, murders and kidnappings.

Sources of active income

The UN, based on the information provided by the intelligence services of the member countries, estimates that the finances of the IS still manage between 50 and 300 million dollars , despite the loss of the territory and the sources of income that They became the richest terrorist group on the planet. Their coffers have lost weight but they still have the means to generate income such as extortion of civilians residing in the areas where their militants move, the payment of bailouts or investments in businesses such as car smuggling, the cultivation of cannabis or the exploitation of fish farms. "It is also believed that the group keeps data on the populations that were under its control and that could be used for future income generation," he says.

Europe, beaten wildly since the establishment of the caliphate in 2014, remains especially vulnerable. "The SI still poses a prominent threat in Europe despite having lost capacity to carry out direct attacks," the report said. "Lately there have been few attacks of 'lone wolves', which suggests that even the ability to inspire actions is in decline, " the investigation slips. "However, a resurgence of communication between the IS central command and individuals in different European countries has recently been detected."

The return of the militants who once swelled the ranks of the IS in Syria and Iraq continues to be one of the sources of greatest concern for experts. According to estimates from European nations, between 5,000 and 6,000 nationals traveled to Syria and Iraq during the last five years to join, mostly, the IS. Even today, the whereabouts of 40% of those who undertook the tour - some 2000 - remain in the shadows and it is speculated that they could have returned home. "Some may join Al Qaeda or other terrorist brands that may be born. Some will become leaders or agents of radicalization," he predicts.

Radicalization in prisons

Unknowns that add to the reality of European prisons. "The radicalization of criminals within the prison system remains a challenge to review," says the report, which voices his fear for the radicalization of "prisoners affected by poverty, marginalization, frustration, low self-esteem and violence" . The risk is even greater if it is considered that the first wave of caliphate returnees could begin serving their sentences and leave prison next year. "Deradicalization programs have not been fully effective," experts report.

After the discouraging radiography plotted by the organism, there is also an error in the calculation of the US strategy. "Just as the Obama administration assumed that the death of Osama Bin Laden and the changes recorded during the Arab Spring would lead to the disappearance of Al Qaeda, the assumptions of Trump and his team about the results of his anti-terrorism efforts are proving wrong." , argues in statements to THE WORLD Michael Smith , an expert terrorism analyst at the Johns Hopkins American University.

"The IS is a more durable enterprise than many Western politicians seem to understand," Smith laments. "They do not understand that the SI is more than a jihadist group capable of governing. It has explicitly defined itself as a terrorist group in its official propaganda. Even when it is denied the ability to govern, it can continue to generate support and have members who they will continue to participate in terrorist campaigns against the enemies of the organization, so it is reasonable to anticipate that the SI will continue trying to mobilize resources to carry out attacks in Europe. " Unable to refute the facts, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo acknowledged this week that reality is "complicated." "There are certain places where the SI is more powerful today than three or four years ago. But the caliphate is past and its ability to carry out external attacks is much more difficult now," he argued.

Redesign process

The proven resilience of the group, able to adapt to different scenarios and take advantage of the weaknesses of others, is one of its greatest assets. According to the UN, the SI is in the process of "adapting, consolidating and creating conditions for a possible resurgence . " The redesign process includes monitoring the political situation of the different European countries and setting goals that contribute to "exacerbating dissent and existing tensions."

In addition to the old continent, the UN also notes with alarm the push of jihadism in West Africa - the IS declared a province a year ago in the Democratic Republic of the Congo - or in Central Asia after the chain of attacks suffered by Sri Lanka and that the experts consider a signed action without knowledge of the organization's leadership, "instigated and directed locally under the inspiration of the ideology of the IS". "The international community has made progress in many ways and, now that the essential part of the struggle is over, governments feel the responsibility of focusing on other issues. However, as the situation in the Syrian camp in Al Hol demonstrates. , the threat of IS will continue, especially if thousands of family members of group members are kept in miserable conditions with no future option, "admits Colin Clarke, a researcher at The Soufan Center in New York, to this newspaper.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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