Hong Kong (AFP)

On the twelfth weekend of pro-democracy protests, the Hong Kong government has little obvious solution to break the stalemate, except for "a very big" concession to the protesters, which is hard to imagine at this stage. AFP Francis Lee, researcher at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, specialist in social movements.

Q: The movement does not seem to be weakening, what are the options of the Hong Kong government?

A: In my opinion, there are three major options: a huge crackdown, either with the People's Liberation Army or another, a sufficiently large concession that would finally calm the movement, or wear. For two and a half months, wear has been the preference, they do not want repression nor concession. They want the movement to dissipate.

Considering what happened with the Umbrellas movement in 2014, they bet on wear and in a way it worked. But in my opinion, this time it does not. Will the movement dissipate in six months? Nobody knows. Will it dissipate next month? I do not think so, because both sides are estimated to still have cards to play.

Carrie Lam (Hong Kong executive leader) says they are trying to establish a so-called platform of dialogue, but in the meantime, they use many methods of repression behind the scenes.

The idea being, of course, thanks to this cocktail, to try to suppress the movement, hoping that the very, very moderate individuals are in line with this idea of ​​dialogue, people fearing to lose too much support for the movement.

Q: The choice of the government remaining that of usury, and if it did not work?

A: It's very hard to say, the question remains open. The government has tried several methods since July, which did not work. Why assume that their strategy could now pay? And if that does not work, the fact remains that the Chinese government will have to make a decision.

After the rallies, clashes with the police, the demonstration at the airport etc., a call to the student strike was launched for the return, obviously, the actions will continue until at least the end of September . As the 5th anniversary of the beginning of the Umbrellas movement is September 28th and October 1st is the 70th anniversary of the creation of the People's Republic of China. It is simply impossible to imagine that the movement can cease by then. It would make no sense to stop the movement unless the government gives it a very big concession.

In any event, the government will have to make a decision. Only the field of concessions is spreading more and more. And do not forget the cost of concessions for the Beijing government. The problem is not just about Hong Kong, because over the last two or three weeks, Beijing and the Chinese media have raised the Chinese ultra-nationalist view against Hong Kong. A turnaround is actually very, very difficult for Beijing now.

Q: Is the option of hard cracking feasible?

Many in Hong Kong, including academics and commentators believe that the stakes are too high for the Chinese government to eventually deploy the army. Because it would basically announce the death of Hong Kong's special status, "One Country Two Systems", and the International Financial Center. China, the first, would suffer serious damage. What interest for the Chinese to lose Hong Kong? They would deprive themselves of the openness that connects them to the international economy. Hong Kong plays a very important role, Hong Kong holds a real key role that only Hong Kong can play and only under "One country two systems" status. So if Hong Kong dies (?), China's economy and financial system collapse.

The movement is fully aware that the crackdown by the Chinese government would be a very, very bad idea. That's why the young protesters use the Cantonese expression which literally means "We will burn together" if the Chinese government sends troops. For them, the situation is already bad but the Chinese, they have everything to lose. That's at least their calculation.

There is no obvious solution to the problem.

© 2019 AFP